Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

This is not happening... how could there be such drastic swings

aiannone wrote:This is not happening... how could there be such drastic swings

It feels like the models are just toying with us, building up hope just to rip down. Just wrong

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM went from Godzilla to partly cloudy

Did you ever order your sweat guards?? They have them cheap on Amazon..

Bernie raynos video 15 min ago..was nothing like this..wth.

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM went from Godzilla to partly cloudy

Ok then I expect 20 inches of partly cloudy.

Honestly that Nam run was pretty laughable.

For those hoping for a big snowstorm on the NAM, it slams the door with this threat. Maybe the Euro will be correct and give us a moderate sized event but my confidence is quickly waning. While it’s not been the ideal pattern this month, it’s surely enough to have snow. Plenty of vorts and cold air. We’ve just been incredibly unlucky.

In my novice weather experience, I don't think even the conservative news station weather folks would have put snow maps out like they have and all of a sudden pull the plug. I am just as passionate as the next person on this board, today is WEDNESDAY. 48 hours-ish for things to really settle in, for better or for worse.

nutleyblizzard wrote:For those hoping for a big snowstorm on the NAM, it slams the door with this threat. Maybe the Euro will be correct and give us a moderate sized event but my confidence is quickly waning. While it’s not been the ideal pattern this month, it’s surely enough to have snow. Plenty of vorts and cold air. We’ve just been incredibly unlucky.

There is something wrong with that 18z nam run. You would have to drive to Newfoundland to see a snowstorm.

Irish wrote:TWC just lowered my area's totals from 6-12 to 4-8.  Im in the Old Bridge area, so closer to the coast, not a good sign.

this is for Sayreville here in NJ

WINTERCAST
Friday Afternoon - Saturday Evening

10 - 15 in
Snow

aiannone wrote:This is not happening... how could there be such drastic swings

Phased system drive you nuts right up to game time.

I don't think E LI is going to wiff with this setup. Everyone else is fair game.

Upton just updated for CLI:

This would be epic bust if verified, but luckily this is the NAM, so not happening this way.

Weather Channel saying I95 Gets crushed my town Sayreville in 12-18 zone as of now

nutleyblizzard wrote:For those hoping for a big snowstorm on the NAM, it slams the door with this threat. Maybe the Euro will be correct and give us a moderate sized event but my confidence is quickly waning. While it’s not been the ideal pattern this month, it’s surely enough to have snow. Plenty of vorts and cold air. We’ve just been incredibly unlucky.

I wouldn't give up on it just yet. But also there are enough ensemble members even on the Euro that show this possibility. It's just not likely at all IMO.

If we hang our hat on every model run we will get continuously burned to the first degree. We all like to look, share and dissect model runs but we really should not take them as gospel. The NAM is clearly wrong, at least that is my opinion. I continue to believe eastern sections of our area will see accumulating snow from this. I’ve seen lots of snow maps already from media which is kind of nuts considering the lack of consensus, but I do think we are approaching consensus now (minus the NAM).

Do people agree that it's all about the strength of the piece of energy coming down from Canada which will decide how deep the trough gets which will determine how far east or west this thing develops? Are there other factors at play here that are driving the crazy changes run to run?

lglickman1 wrote:Do people agree that it's all about the strength of the piece of energy coming down from Canada which will decide how deep the trough gets which will determine how far east or west this thing develops?  Are there other factors at play here that are driving the crazy changes run to run?

That is basically what Bernie Rayno was saying

weatherwatchermom wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Do people agree that it's all about the strength of the piece of energy coming down from Canada which will decide how deep the trough gets which will determine how far east or west this thing develops?  Are there other factors at play here that are driving the crazy changes run to run?

That is basically what Bernie Rayno was saying

Yeah, he had a good video, but it seems to simple of an explanation that accounts for these trends we are seeing, or maybe that's all it takes for it to be the difference from an area wide roidzilla to partly cloudy skies

lglickman1 wrote:Do people agree that it's all about the strength of the piece of energy coming down from Canada which will decide how deep the trough gets which will determine how far east or west this thing develops?  Are there other factors at play here that are driving the crazy changes run to run?

That is number one.

Number two is determining how much southern energy gets left behind. Almost every model has some energy leftover Texas into the Gulf that never ends up phasing into the trough. But the northern energy is most important. Without a phase there’s no storm. See: 18z NAM

Frank_Wx wrote:If we hang our hat on every model run we will get continuously burned to the first degree. We all like to look, share and dissect model runs but we really should not take them as gospel. The NAM is clearly wrong, at least that is my opinion. I continue to believe eastern sections of our area will see accumulating snow from this. I’ve seen lots of snow maps already from media which is kind of nuts considering the lack of consensus, but I do think we are approaching consensus now (minus the NAM).

Nam is clearly a joke run which is my point that models are still trying to figure this out. I don't think we will have any consensus until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. NWS has my most probable snow as 4.5 with a min of 0 and max of 14. Long way to go.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Do people agree that it's all about the strength of the piece of energy coming down from Canada which will decide how deep the trough gets which will determine how far east or west this thing develops?  Are there other factors at play here that are driving the crazy changes run to run?

That is basically what Bernie Rayno was saying

The strung out energy being left behind in the southwest states is also a big culprit, which has been mentioned several times from our contributors since the beginning. Looks like Rayno is also catching up on this.

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/1486434504281628684?s=21

None of us should look nor care about the 18z GFS, but you damn well know we will.

Upton:

Frank_Wx wrote:None of us should look nor care about the 18z GFS, but you damn well know we will.

Of course we will. And if it shows a miss we will say "it's an off hour run" and if it buries us we will say "the trend west is back and just because it's an off hour run doesn't mean we cant trust it!"

18z GFS northern vort a bit stronger through 48