NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

+51
DWay
Bwtr
Quietace
Joe Snow
Sanchize06
JT33
Zhukov1945
uanswer2me
gigs68
billg315
freezerburn
dolphins222
rb924119
hurrysundown23
dsix85
docstox12
crippo84
lglickman1
SoulSingMG
mikeypizano
TheAresian
moleson
Fededle22
skinsfan1177
Wheezer
Artechmetals
Irish
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
bloc1357
Scullybutcher
hyde345
SNOW MAN
richb521
RJB8525
Carvin
essexcountypete
nutleyblizzard
CPcantmeasuresnow
phil155
MattyICE
amugs
mmanisca
bobjohnsonforthehall
aiannone
sroc4
SENJsnowman
jmanley32
frank 638
heehaw453
Frank_Wx
55 posters

Page 29 of 31 Previous  1 ... 16 ... 28, 29, 30, 31  Next

Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:48 pm

18z GFS through hr 30, more northern stream digging. Trough going neutral earlier
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4523
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

mmanisca and bloc1357 like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by adamfitz1969 Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:51 pm

GFS is caving

adamfitz1969

Posts : 121
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2018-03-01
Age : 52
Location : Tarrytown

amugs likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:54 pm

Seems like its bringing more moisture back further onto land in PA/NJ/NY than in any previous run...

SENJsnowman

Posts : 996
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 49
Location : Bayville, NJ

adamfitz1969 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:57 pm

GFS definitely gave a nod to the more westward solns
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4523
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:58 pm

1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 02-28-10

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

adamfitz1969 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:00 pm

Yep, matches the snowfall map it last had at 18z on Tuesday. Now we just need that one or two last NW leans and its buckets for everybody!

SENJsnowman

Posts : 996
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 49
Location : Bayville, NJ

adamfitz1969 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by essexcountypete Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 02-28-10

Perfect name Frank. Did the current GFS run inform your map? Or rather, did it change your thoughts at all?
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 644
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:03 pm

No, have not even seen the 18s GFS

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by amugs Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:05 pm

adamfitz1969 wrote:GFS is caving

BOOOOM !!

Massive moves since yesterday you stubborn mule!!
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh48_trend.gif.4a8218d03676f6895197be40c44fe097




_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

adamfitz1969 and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by mmanisca Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:06 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 02-28-10

Perfect name Frank. Did the current GFS run inform your map? Or rather, did it change your thoughts at all?
Wow! Quite aggressive here for the Island but I see where it could work! Hope so!
mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 265
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 63
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by mmanisca Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:13 pm

Lol just saw the weather channel. They show 4-8 inches across Long Island
mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 265
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 63
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Joe Snow Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 02-28-10

Sitting here in Kings Park, Long Island (Suffolk County) your map is looking real good.
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 909
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 60
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 02-28-10

thats a good map, hoping it pushes west but if as set its decent for my area though im hella jelous of the 18-24+ lol, interested in your insight on wind impacts tomorrow, that NAM map was nuts.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19096
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:18 pm

Nice Frank. I was hoping the western flank of the gold over the north shore of LI should be about 3-4 miles further west Wink I will probably update my map once more in the morning but Im def thinking totals need to be increased just a bit from east to west.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Frank_Wx likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:23 pm

18z Canadian. Madonne…

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 79453510

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:23 pm

Welcome to the party, GooFuS

Anymore shifts like this and we’ll be singing a very different tune…

18z GEFS

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 740bf610

12z GEFS

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Aa91c110
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2843
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

amugs likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:40 pm

GFS coming more inline now with everything else.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:43 pm

heehaw453 wrote:GFS coming more inline now with everything else.
Probably will never fully catch up to SR models. Mugs stubborn mule is right! But we been pulling the rope from Frank's post yesterday. I used to be a tug of war anchor so it was mostly me lol ok but I did work a summer camp and really was a anchor. I was a lot stronger back then


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19096
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:43 pm

Just need consolidation about 2-3 hours earlier and then I95 will be have quite a different outcome.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Gfsull14

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:50 pm

New recon data will be ingested into tonight’s 00z runs. 

Here. We. Go.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

SoulSingMG and adamfitz1969 like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by mikeypizano Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:New recon data will be ingested into tonight’s 00z runs. 

Here. We. Go.

Shall we start the bidding? I am offering 2:1 odds on east... :p But in all seriousness, looks like it won't go far enough west for me to get anything. Sad
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1088
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 33
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

RJB8525 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by MattyICE Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:New recon data will be ingested into tonight’s 00z runs. 

Here. We. Go.

It’s happening…

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 137
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 37
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by tomsriversnowstorm Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:56 pm

Mainly a lurker here don’t post but have a dumb question. Should we be concerned about this coming so far west that we get rain? No it has not been mentioned much so just wondering. Thanks again you guys do a great job. I love the maps.

tomsriversnowstorm

Posts : 22
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:59 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Mainly a lurker here don’t post but have a dumb question. Should we be concerned about this coming so far west that we get rain? No it has not been mentioned much so just wondering. Thanks again you guys do a great job. I love the maps.

Not with this storm. It will be all snow, and ratios will likely exceed 10:1 for most.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Bwtr and JT33 like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by tomsriversnowstorm Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:00 pm

Thank you so much

tomsriversnowstorm

Posts : 22
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06

Frank_Wx, essexcountypete, weatherwatchermom and JT33 like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 29 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 29 of 31 Previous  1 ... 16 ... 28, 29, 30, 31  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum