Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

TheAresian wrote:Doesn't heavy snow and big winds mean the probability of power outages? Ratios are great for snow weenies, but it's definitely not the kind of weather where one wants to discover they'll be a few days without power.

Power outages in this type of storm would be caused my dead branches falling on lines.
In the winter time, when leaves have fallen, most trees fall via snow loading. Snowload is often proportional to the Liquid Water Content of the snowfall. In fact, low LWC snowfall, and strong winds are a deterant to snowload on both wires and trees. I doubt there is widespread outages unless winds verify on the extreme side.
I use this equation to calcuate line snow load for the Supply Chain Risk company I do work for.  As you can see, speed is a limiting factor. B is proprietary and not shown
line_load=((snow_mass_flux*.01*6*b*(1/speed))**1.5

Hearing 18z RGEM is a beaut

Frank_Wx wrote:Frankzilla for Boston

Geez Frank, I wasn't watching the news much today then I saw this. News stations are saying I'm in a swath where we will get anywhere from 22-32".


Don't show me the door but.....there is too much of a good thing.

More recon flights went out today in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. So cool.

Thank for the explanation, Ace. Snow or no snow here I worry a lot about winds bringing down branches because there's a tree that has a lot of dead limbs that fall with during wind events. Nothing like finding a 4 foot long section of limbs weighing 25lbs or so resting on your steps.

Weather Alerts-Oceanport, NJ
Winter Storm Warning from FRI 7:00 PM EST until SAT 7:00 PM EST
1 of 2
Action Recommended
Make preparations per the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central and southern New Jersey and southern Delaware
Description
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey and southern Delaware.

WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin Friday evening in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, spreading northward overnight into Saturday morning. Snow may be heavy at times through mid afternoon Saturday before diminishing Saturday evening. Strong winds may generate blowing snow and very low visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

18z RGEM

How can this disorganization resolve itself?

essexcountypete wrote:

Bwtr wrote:I’ve been lurking on here for years but never posted. Have learned a ton from everyone and love tracking these storms with you all. Sorry if this is an IMBY question, but I have the option to stay here in Bridgewater NJ (Somerset County Near 78 and 287) or head down to the shore on the North end of LBI. Based on everything I’ve seen I’m guessing I’ll have a better storm to enjoy down on LBI? Even if we get more of a west shift in the next 24 hours? Thanks for everything you all do here!

Love it when lurkers post! Welcome!

Sure seems like LBI is the better choice. It's on my bucket list to be on the island during a storm like this. I'm an island regular but have never been there for a big storm. Go to LBI!!!

Thank you! That was my plan. Have wanted to see a good storm down there for years but haven’t had the opportunity. Last time I was there for a storm I was an infant about 28 years ago lmao. Hopefully I’ll be able to provide some good updates!

I do not think winds of 50-60mph gusts will cause any widespread outages however soulsing will get his Blizzard if sustained hit 35mph over what is it 6 hrs? Does not matter if its just blowing snow or falling snow. I just learned that recently you can get a blizzard warning on a sunny day if blowing snow cuts visibility. IMO most places along coast will go to blizzard warnings IF those winds are true, NAM often overdoes them a lot, but my concern for damage and power outages are low for same reason ace said. If it was wet snow that would potentially be bad, also if it was a icer storm which isnt happening with 14 degrees brrrr. My landlord better have the heat on i swear to god if they pull a boiler issue during the storm....

Is there a legit chance this trends further west so nyc metro gets in on insane snow? I know wr are hoping for an earlier closing off of the lp, but is that likely to happen if it hasn't come up already on models?

Recon missions getting started to sample the atmosphere over the western Atlantic ahead of the upcoming Nor’easter. Data should be ingested into the 00z guidance tonight! pic.twitter.com/1NxvYksUGb

— Cody Snell (@cody__snell) January 27, 2022

heehaw453 wrote:How can this disorganization resolve itself?  

Notice the longitude of that low. Bang on with Hatteras. That’ll do, pig, that’ll do.

Ideas from myself and Ryan may have merit

lglickman1 wrote:Is there a legit chance this trends further west so nyc metro gets in on insane snow?  I know wr are hoping for an earlier closing off of the lp, but is that likely to happen if it hasn't come up already on models?

In my opinion, yes.

Man, I have seven minutes to decide if I want to be “sick” tonight and not log on to work, but track with you guys instead. This whole devil/desire on the left shoulder, angel/conscious on the right thing is killing me aha

rb924119 wrote:Man, I have seven minutes to decide if I want to be “sick” tonight and not log on to work, but track with you guys instead. This whole devil/desire on the left shoulder, angel/conscious on the right thing is killing me aha

Call in sick. Just my initial thoughts. LoL

Holly's Update

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Man, I have seven minutes to decide if I want to be “sick” tonight and not log on to work, but track with you guys instead. This whole devil/desire on the left shoulder, angel/conscious on the right thing is killing me aha

Call in sick.  Just my initial thoughts.  LoL

And you’re not helping the situation

rb924119 wrote:Man, I have seven minutes to decide if I want to be “sick” tonight and not log on to work, but track with you guys instead. This whole devil/desire on the left shoulder, angel/conscious on the right thing is killing me aha

depends on ur banked time, if you have a lot sure why not, you likely wont have many to track like this : )

Upton Bumped West

Bwtr wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Bwtr wrote:I’ve been lurking on here for years but never posted. Have learned a ton from everyone and love tracking these storms with you all. Sorry if this is an IMBY question, but I have the option to stay here in Bridgewater NJ (Somerset County Near 78 and 287) or head down to the shore on the North end of LBI. Based on everything I’ve seen I’m guessing I’ll have a better storm to enjoy down on LBI? Even if we get more of a west shift in the next 24 hours? Thanks for everything you all do here!

Love it when lurkers post! Welcome!

Sure seems like LBI is the better choice. It's on my bucket list to be on the island during a storm like this. I'm an island regular but have never been there for a big storm. Go to LBI!!!

Thank you! That was my plan. Have wanted to see a good storm down there for years but haven’t had the opportunity. Last time I was there for a storm I was an infant about 28 years ago lmao. Hopefully I’ll be able to provide some good updates!

Updates would be great. Video from atop a dune with the sound of the waves crashing would be cool too

aiannone wrote:Upton Bumped West

did it? My WSW says 6-12 that says 6-8, still if it shifted west good, we still got time to take some more strides.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Upton Bumped West

did it? My WSW says 6-12 that says 6-8, still if it shifted west good, we still got time to take some more strides.

This was earlier in the day

aiannone wrote:Holly's Update

 

Either way I think we will have more than 6 inches here in NYC area and can't wait cuz my daughter is becoming quite a snow lover (maybe a new member one day). She will get to see how crazy her dad really is lol.  I can't wait to play in the snow with her it is so much fun, I get to be a kid again.  Digging out the two car parking spots, not so fun.

Nuts NWS WSW lowered my totals by 3 inches, I hope they are wrong, now as low as 5.

meanwhile my stubborn and unaware about any incoming weather mother says its probably going to rain in central CT and Mass, lmao, she makes me so annoyed at times. I tried explain how cold it will be but she just doesn't get it.

rb924119 wrote:Man, I have seven minutes to decide if I want to be “sick” tonight and not log on to work, but track with you guys instead. This whole devil/desire on the left shoulder, angel/conscious on the right thing is killing me aha

Don’t! Save it for tomorrow night!