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Long Range Thread 24.0

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:14 am

I think trying to get to an all-snow scenario to play out on Friday will be an uphill battle but not impossible. Below is a look of the EURO upper air map valid for Thursday afternoon. Our storm of interest is going to form somewhere in the southeast, but exactly where will be key for us. A surface low that develops too far SW, like Texas, would amplify eastern heights too much (SE Ridge) and cause the storm to cut to our west. A surface low that starts out weaker, meaning less phasing with the southern energies, would develop LATER (say around TN), which keeps the cold air in place for us as the low is likely to pass to our south and east. There's no high latitude blocking, but we do have the northern jet acting as our 'block' with multiple HP's to our north helping to suppress the low and preventing it from cutting too much. You can see these HP's nicely on the MSLP map of the GFS.

Too early to tell what potential snowfall amounts could be. The snowiest models should 8-12" over a large swath of the area. We also have a freezing rain risk, because depending on the exact track of the low, warmer air aloft mixed with freezing temps at the surface could spell trouble.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Tempsnip

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslpa_us_21

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by TheAresian Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:50 am

For whatever it might be worth, TWC currently has me forecasted for a total of 10-17". Is it selfish to hope this storm is mine after the one you all just got?

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:34 am

GFS keeps correcting South with the boundary. Result of the EPO/WPO Negative tandem push.

I see this correcting more each future run. EPOndid this in 13-14. 14-15 and we had very similar set ups. Super Bowl, end of Feb, beginning of March. Much easier to see evolve than aLong Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 887d31f4-1539-4064-8c07-889506d9af8c.gif.9a614a1a69d36994f64cad47ab8754b5 Millet A or B which are 2x as hard.



Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 887d3110

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:19 pm

Definitely too early in the game to say much. 06Z EPS took more of a step towards GEFS with stronger and sooner amplification of the low.  The WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) if it pumps too much this will go more inland and develop stronger.  This will give most of the area much less frozen threat.  Watch the Atlantic ridge IMO.

EPS
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Eps06z10


GEFS
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gefs36

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:38 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Definitely too early in the game to say much. 06Z EPS took more of a step towards GEFS with stronger and sooner amplification of the low.  The WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) if it pumps too much this will go more inland and develop stronger.  This will give most of the area much less frozen threat.  Watch the Atlantic ridge IMO.

EPS
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Eps06z10


GEFS
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gefs36

I’m still recovering from our most recent marathon, so I’ve not looked at this yet, but just seeing these images, I’ll say this: Much like our blizzard, though in the opposite direction, that ridge orientation doesn’t scream “cutter” to me. Just based on this, it looks like there should be very little ridge amplification as the trough shears out, with the southern flank sagging back to the Southwest and the northern stream progressing ahead.

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 30, 2022 1:03 pm

MJO phase 3 for Feb pattern.
Lots of SWFE riding the barclonic boundary and we'll have many waves come up this.
Remember 94, 14, 15 February's?? This is what it looks like to me at this time.
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 F208879B-C502-4EE6-BD6C-D127BEDFF1A3.png.f66ef2ff34532f5a6c7e3d211b9f125d
Heat Miser get back in your hole!!!! And stay there until I tell you to come out! Not Math or anyone else LOL.



SST waters circles in black or phase 2 and 3 in rhe Indian Ocean. Big pattern driver moving fwd.
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Image.png.d05115723904fbf2346f536c900ae3fc

Maps compliments of 33n Rain, analysis by mooooohahah...me.

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 30, 2022 1:55 pm

Already looks at another in 5 days huh, im barely recovered from the lack of sleep from this one lol, friends out in eastern CT got nearly 2 ft, I see LI did really well too. I am good with my 9 inches I was able to get right out of my parking spot instead having dig out for hours.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 30, 2022 2:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 30, 2022 2:13 pm

amugs wrote:MJO phase 3 for Feb pattern.
Lots of SWFE riding the barclonic boundary and we'll have many waves come up this.
Remember 94, 14, 15 February's?? This is what it looks like to me at this time.
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 F208879B-C502-4EE6-BD6C-D127BEDFF1A3.png.f66ef2ff34532f5a6c7e3d211b9f125d
Heat Miser get back in your hole!!!! And stay there until I tell you to come out! Not Math or anyone else LOL.



SST waters circles in black or phase 2 and 3 in rhe Indian Ocean. Big pattern driver moving fwd.
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Image.png.d05115723904fbf2346f536c900ae3fc

Maps compliments of 33n Rain, analysis by mooooohahah...me.
So much for that February torch that all the warm trolls were calling for.
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:06 pm

Temps crash but we need them 6 hours sooner for anything meaningful in the NYC Metro - HV and NWNJ is icy:
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 1352821585_GFS18ZTemps.gif.77b3e30697f0841ed2b015511dc19079

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 195267454_GFS18z.gif.201bdd976c9be8a400b56ca13d7b9d0a


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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:07 am

I think the over  running will trend south.  Gfs has a 1044 high to the north 
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:44 am

Snow88 wrote:I think the over  running will trend south.  Gfs has a 1044 high to the north 

Take the under on the temps.  The 06Z GFS is definitely heading in the right direction for this weekend.  This is absolutely not a look of rain for NW95.  Give GFS another day to correct, but if this look holds you are going to see much different surface panels with this.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs214

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:49 am

A banana Nana HP 1048, 1040 HP with N EPO will drill the cold air in. Artic source of cold is dense cold air. It's been -20's in OH CANADA. That will win out.
Rain to ice maybe a good amount to snow set uo Thursday into Friday

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:50 am

heehaw453 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:I think the over  running will trend south.  Gfs has a 1044 high to the north 

Take the under on the temps.  The 06Z GFS is definitely heading in the right direction for this weekend.  This is absolutely not a look of rain for NW95.  Give GFS another day to correct, but if this look holds you are going to see much different surface panels with this.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs214

Again follow the ally of white on this map. That's your weakness where the LP will usually follow if weak.

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:02 am

06z GFS came in wayyy colder than previous runs for the late-week system. cyclops
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:19 am

SoulSingMG wrote:06z GFS came in wayyy colder than previous runs for the late-week system. cyclops
I'm presuming the snow map showing 12+ is not accurate since there's rain and what looks like sig ice. Not good have ice then snow. I believe snow map shows all of those of tropical tidbits. Anyone have the precip breakdown from wxbell?
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by TheAresian Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:32 am

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Icemap10

This is not what you want sitting on top of a foot of snow.

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:41 am

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:06z GFS came in wayyy colder than previous runs for the late-week system. cyclops
I'm presuming the snow map showing 12+ is not accurate since there's rain and what looks like sig ice. Not good have ice then snow. I believe snow map shows all of those of tropical tidbits. Anyone have the precip breakdown from wxbell?

That's correct, Jman. Here's a look at the breakdown of precip types (06z left, 00z right):


Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfssno10
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfssle10
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfsice10
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:52 am

TheAresian wrote:Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Icemap10

This is not what you want sitting on top of a foot of snow.
The ice comes b4 the snow at least here which is even worse and as soul posted it won't be a foot where ice falls. Not good a half inch ice to over a inch. Ice storm warning anyone? Yikes. Usually that doesn't play out so that's the only hope on the ice.
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by TheAresian Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:02 am

I was talking about half an inch of ice on top of whatever snow might be left over from the blizzard. I saw a few postings of 18-20" so I figured a foot leftover might not be unreasonable. No matter what happens, if that map were to verify, it would be a nightmare.

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:13 am

TheAresian wrote:I was talking about half an inch of ice on top of whatever snow might be left over from the blizzard. I saw a few postings of 18-20" so I figured a foot leftover might not be unreasonable. No matter what happens, if that map were to verify, it would be a nightmare.
Right lol still have snow. I guess I was only think of roads. Yeah and trees with snow. But I doubt that verifies it keeps trending colder may continue to where ends up be all snow.
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:40 am

EURO

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_T2m_neus_31

GFS

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_16

There's the difference about 100 miles by a crows flight - 3-4 hours timing.

HP Placement at the same time frame

GFS

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15

Euro
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_30

It is after this what the models do - GFS bring it East over Toronto - Euro doesn't go passed HR 90 at 6Z

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_17

Tick tick tick



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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:49 am

Monday next time frame Rb pointed out - BINGO!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by mikeypizano Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:19 am

amugs wrote:Monday next time frame Rb pointed out - BINGO!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28

Shouldn't we get though Friday storm first?
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:22 am

mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:Monday next time frame Rb pointed out - BINGO!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28

Shouldn't we get though Friday storm first?

Nothing wrong with pointing out things on the table in the LR thread

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by mikeypizano Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:27 am

sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:Monday next time frame Rb pointed out - BINGO!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28

Shouldn't we get though Friday storm first?

Nothing wrong with pointing out things on the table in the LR thread

But doesn't it get skewed from the first system?
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