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Long Range Thread 24.0

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:50 am

mikeypizano wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:Monday next time frame Rb pointed out - BINGO!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28

Shouldn't we get though Friday storm first?

Nothing wrong with pointing out things on the table in the LR thread

But doesn't it get skewed from the first system?

Sometimes absolutely. Usually though its when we have a dynamic system that might reshuffle things in its wake after it moves off into the N Atlantic. This system in particular is really just a front that where exactly sets up the weak waves of low pressure will dictate where any wintry precip falls. You are probably correct in stating that it could absolutely still affect how that next bit of energy proceeds for Monday. I guess my point is at this point that Monday system only recently popped up on the radar. Nothing wrong with pointing it out.

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:11 am

Would be devastating IF it verifies!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 FKcGG2yXEAQIOtV?format=jpg&name=medium

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by mikeypizano Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:25 am

sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:Monday next time frame Rb pointed out - BINGO!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28

Shouldn't we get though Friday storm first?

Nothing wrong with pointing out things on the table in the LR thread

But doesn't it get skewed from the first system?

Sometimes absolutely.  Usually though its when we have a dynamic system that might reshuffle things in its wake after it moves off into the N Atlantic.  This system in particular is really just a front that where exactly sets up the weak waves of low pressure will dictate where any wintry precip falls.   You are probably correct in stating that it could absolutely still affect how that next bit of energy proceeds for Monday.  I guess my point is at this point that Monday system only recently popped up on the radar. Nothing wrong with pointing it out.


Ahh ok.

amugs wrote:Would be devastating IF it verifies!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 FKcGG2yXEAQIOtV?format=jpg&name=medium

If this does, I am blaming you ok? :p
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by mmanisca Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:59 am

I've seen in years gone by once we get into February these fronts start to sink south with waves of low pressure moving along it sometimes bringing some really interesting weather events with ice, snow and rain. I remember some wild ice storms.
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:05 am

12Z GFS is a bit colder.  I expect that trend will continue.  Banana highs push down harder than modeled.  Cold coming from north/west is double the potency IMO as opposed to coming from say West.

Edit. GFS caves the low levels quickly but 850's it's trying to be more stubborn with. I doubt it. Highly doubt it.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:09 am; edited 1 time in total

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by aiannone Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:06 am

YIKES if this happens
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Zr_acc11
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:17 am

But clearly this is coming in colder and I expect further corrections.  NAM is very good at sniffing out the mid-levels, but there is a potential for 6"+ for where those mid-level 850's can crash.

Edit.
This is kind of like the opposite of WAA where it's USUALLY under modeled with how quickly the column will warm at a given layer. I can't tell you how many times i hear "pingers" much sooner than models would say.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:37 am; edited 2 times in total

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:34 am

Thankfully, ice accretion outputs from models rarely pan out, though the signal for a significant ice event across a large portion of the country does exist. Incidentally, I am still hard-pressed to find history of an ice storm (>.25 accretion) in New York City proper. I literally cannot find history of one (if anyone else cares to take a stab at it..)
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Iceny10

But who's up for getting over 3 inches of sleet? Evil or Very Mad
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Sleetn10
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:41 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Thankfully, ice accretion outputs from models rarely pan out, though the signal for a significant ice event across a large portion of the country does exist. Incidentally, I am still hard-pressed to find history of an ice storm (>.25 accretion) in New York City proper. I literally cannot find history of one (if anyone else cares to take a stab at it..)
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Iceny10

But who's up for getting over 3 inches of sleet? Evil or Very Mad
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Sleetn10

Yikes
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:43 am

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 8b793010
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:49 am

One thing that I will say about this, is that in my opinion, this is not a widespread freezing rain/sleet event for most. This is going to be a very steep front through the column, which will keep the expanse of the warm nose aloft (the +0C portion of it) limited on the cold side of the front, and should lead to a narrow zone (30-50 miles wide) of freezing rain/sleet. The problem is whoever ends up in that zone will see some pretty impressive accretion.

As for the storm track, when you look at the press from the low-level cold air (as has been posted and demonstrated with the maps of the surface pressure anomalies), that is undeniably true. To have substantially higher pressure to the northwest of this system versus to the southeast and not expect the low-level boundary to trend further south would be akin to expecting water not to leak through a screen lol however, it’s the evolution aloft that needs to be watched to figure out how this storm evolves. Does the trough hold together and mature, or, does it shear out?

Yesterday I noted that the look of the West Coast ridge didn’t look like one that would support an inland cutter type track with a consolidating and strengthening low, but a more sheared and strung out system as the southern portion sags behind and hangs back in the Southwest (which has been a seasonal tendency this year, as previously stated by Frank), and the northern stream is allowed to progress and knock the northwestern flank of the ridge down. Trying to get a little bit better handle on this setup while I eat my breakfast, but I think that idea has merit, though it’s not going to be able to benefit all of us. I’ll have more on this at some point, but as a preview,  my preliminary-preliminary thinking is that if you’re between the latitudes of I-195 and I-80 (or slightly north), that’s the icing zone, with snow north and rain south.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 23230210

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:53 am

amugs wrote:Would be devastating IF it verifies!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 FKcGG2yXEAQIOtV?format=jpg&name=medium
That would put millions in the dark, my god thats a lot of frz especially over central US.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:57 am

rb924119 wrote:One thing that I will say about this, is that in my opinion, this is not a widespread freezing rain/sleet event for most. This is going to be a very steep front through the column, which will keep the expanse of the warm nose aloft (the +0C portion of it) limited on the cold side of the front, and should lead to a narrow zone (30-50 miles wide) of freezing rain/sleet. The problem is whoever ends up in that zone will see some pretty impressive accretion.

As for the storm track, when you look at the press from the low-level cold air (as has been posted and demonstrated with the maps of the surface pressure anomalies), that is undeniably true. To have substantially higher pressure to the northwest of this system versus to the southeast and not expect the low-level boundary to trend further south would be akin to expecting water not to leak through a screen lol however, it’s the evolution aloft that needs to be watched to figure out how this storm evolves. Does the trough hold together and mature, or, does it shear out?

Yesterday I noted that the look of the West Coast ridge didn’t look like one that would support an inland cutter type track with a consolidating and strengthening low, but a more sheared and strung out system as the southern portion sags behind and hangs back in the Southwest (which has been a seasonal tendency this year, as previously stated by Frank), and the northern stream is allowed to progress and knock the northwestern flank of the ridge down. Trying to get a little bit better handle on this setup while I eat my breakfast, but I think that idea has merit, though it’s not going to be able to benefit all of us. I’ll have more on this at some point, but as a preview,  my preliminary-preliminary thinking is that if you’re between the latitudes of I-195 and I-80 (or slightly north), that’s the icing zone, with snow north and rain south.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 23230210
thanks for including 5 miles north of yonkers lol, so its basically 50/50 for my area on ice or/snow. Prefer snow over a major ice storm. We had a pretty sig ice storm a few yrs ago and I think was in feb, lost power and had numerous trees down with 1/10th
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:09 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Thankfully, ice accretion outputs from models rarely pan out, though the signal for a significant ice event across a large portion of the country does exist. Incidentally, I am still hard-pressed to find history of an ice storm (>.25 accretion) in New York City proper. I literally cannot find history of one (if anyone else cares to take a stab at it..)
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Iceny10

But who's up for getting over 3 inches of sleet? Evil or Very Mad
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Sleetn10

Soul my man I mentioned in banter 1994 MLK storm was a MAJOR Ice event same set up - HUGE arctic high and front - went from heavy rain to heavy ice to snow. Crippled teh area for a week.

Valentines 2007 major ice event with 3-5" of sleet in NNJ and about 1-2" in NYC.

You have a STJ still at play and as I said earlier this morning a huge very strong arctic HP that will just DRILL the cold down the plain. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE this cold - it is extremely cold source and dense (like some ........). You lay a deep snowpack down and it does wonders - look back to 13-14,14-15 and 17-18. The storms follow teh gradian and do not go N but lag south. This is is a very interesting adn yet dangerous set up. We are 84 hours away.
NAM actually from 6 to 12Z make a significant jump S. LR NAM but it cans niff these out like Hee Haw stated.

Also, we have 2-7, 29/10, 2-12/13 as possible storms on the horizon.

CFS for February - buckle up peeps! Right in line with Rb thoughts.
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Cfs-daily-all-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_30day-6265600.png.55b9dfd4989f3cf0cc1a8cb55db0bcd8


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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:12 pm

Hey guys! Started a thread for Friday - feel free to move some of your recent posts to that thread.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1090-monitoring-february-4th#173187

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:27 pm

PLEASE PLEAS PLEAS VERIFY!!!

Look at that NAO -IF SOMEONE ON HERE SAYS SUPPRESSION _ I may have to take a trip with the boyz and schmief you behind teh wood shed!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 472941753_GFSNAOevolution.gif.514ba7177a74b3eae58f724afc0d3ed8

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:28 pm

Wow what a beautiful sight I could cry

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Post by mmanisca Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:20 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Thankfully, ice accretion outputs from models rarely pan out, though the signal for a significant ice event across a large portion of the country does exist. Incidentally, I am still hard-pressed to find history of an ice storm (>.25 accretion) in New York City proper. I literally cannot find history of one (if anyone else cares to take a stab at it..)
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Iceny10

But who's up for getting over 3 inches of sleet? Evil or Very Mad
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Sleetn10

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 1978ic10

I cant tell you the amount of ice, but this was in 1978 a little before the great Blizzard of 1978, maybe a few weeks or so prior, I dont remember. This was a heck of an ice storm here on Long Island.. Thought I'd share these with you. We had another ice storm, I believe in 1977, but not sure.
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by aiannone Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:00 pm

Interesting take lol...
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 27288610
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:10 pm

aiannone wrote:Interesting take lol...
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 27288610

Didn't they learn from last year??? or 2014 or 2015.
Time will tell

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:54 pm

Freezing Drizzle precursor Wednesday morning to Thursday night/Fridays storm? Still showing signs.

3k NAM
Temps
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Nam3km_T2m_neus_fh36-51.gif.010884c01d3c8a2c0bdd425a8d69735c

Precipitation

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Nam3km_apcpn_neus_fh36-51.gif.66a4507f9e95e0ae34ad8c862d574a93

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:12 pm

GFS maybe seeing the phase 3 of the MJO which coincides to the map with the NAO blocking

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member


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Post by Irish Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:14 pm

amugs wrote:GFS maybe seeing the phase 3 of the MJO which coincides to the map with the NAO blocking

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member


Man, I never know what the hell these maps are trying to tell me.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:23 pm

Irish wrote:
amugs wrote:GFS maybe seeing the phase 3 of the MJO which coincides to the map with the NAO blocking

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member


Man, I never know what the hell these maps are trying to tell me.

Irish ask and yee shall receive. Click on the link below. Several years ago I did a write up on what the MJO is. Read through. I hope it answers at least some questions.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t511-what-is-the-mjo-really

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:29 pm

Irish wrote:
amugs wrote:GFS maybe seeing the phase 3 of the MJO which coincides to the map with the NAO blocking

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member


Man, I never know what the hell these maps are trying to tell me.

It means a cold n stormy pattern for the east

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 3 Combined_image

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