Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

[SENJsnowman]

I feel as though this ‘storm’ is being reasonable. It’s said, “I can’t make a phase, that’s off the table and that’s that. BUT, I’m going to do what I can to make this a decent snow outbreak for all!”

[Snow88]

There is usually a pattern breaker storm. Too bad this storm can't phase in time.

[amugs]

HRRR and Mesos have frontgenesis further N than Globals which they are better at picking up. Time will tell.

[heehaw453]

I think the best lift for the storm is I-95 and a bit to its NW. It's just moving too fast for anything sig. Anyone that is able to exceed 3" winner winner chicken dinner...

[SENJsnowman]

Great call heehaw!! ALL of the 12z models have shifted the heaviest axis of snow to directly along and just north and west of I 95. And the short range models are now getting quite bullish on SEPA and CNJ. Some of our board members may be very pleasantly surprised by this...

Fascinating...if the stakes were just a bit higher, I'd be in a full on panic watching this potential jackpot slip away literally hours before kick off. But I feel like a croc in the mara river that partook in a big feeding a few weeks ago- I'm still fairly sated at the moment.

I think 2-3" with some potential jackpot zones of up to 5" may possible for CNJ WNJ (does that even exist?) and EPA. Also include LI, but favoring Nassau over Suffolk at the moment. Everywhere else (including SNJ, NNJ, NWNJ and LHV)- C-2", maybe some isolated 3".

And I'd say beyond that, this storm has zero upside potential and massive downside potential for accumulating snow.

How much fun would these prop bets be though??  ha ha

[Irish]

Winter Weather Advisory from SUN 1:00 AM EST until SUN 1:00 PM EST
Action Recommended
Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Parts of central New Jersey and parts of southeastern Pennsylvania
Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

WHERE...Parts of central New Jersey and parts of southeastern Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 1:00 AM until 1:00 PM Sunday.

IMPACTS...Expect slippery conditions on untreated roads and walkways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use extra caution if driving.

The latest road conditions for your state can be obtained by dialing 5 1 1.

[dolphins222]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

[Irish]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

[dolphins222]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

[SENJsnowman]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

Here's how that can change in a hurry: The RB Pattern Flip. Not exactly sure when that is due to take effect, but I think by late Feb, maybe the very beginning of March. And the models haven't picked up on it yet, obviously, or you'd be hearing all about it from everyone. Last update from RB-Wan Kenobi said prospects regarding his forecast looked strong, so for now, in ray we trust and may the schwartz be with us.

I mean of course, it could just as easily be the end of the road for snow...but as of right now, for sure all hope is not lost.

[dolphins222]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

Here's how that can change in a hurry: The RB Pattern Flip. Not exactly sure when that is due to take effect, but I think by late Feb, maybe the very beginning of March. And the models haven't picked up on it yet, obviously, or you'd be hearing all about it from everyone. Last update from RB-Wan Kenobi said prospects regarding his forecast looked strong, so for now, in ray we trust and may the schwartz be with us.

I mean of course, it could just as easily be the end of the road for snow...but as of right now, for sure all hope is not lost.

as much as i love snow and certainly would love at least 1 more significant snowstorm along with a few small events, its not even the lack of snow in the long term forecast that is depressing, its seeing high 40s and 50s almost daily after this weeks short term cold, when we still have 2 plus weeks left in feb and a whole March.

Hope the experts on this site end up being right about things that havent been picked up yet by others. Not ready for weather like we had today in feb just yet.

[Irish]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

Here's how that can change in a hurry: The RB Pattern Flip. Not exactly sure when that is due to take effect, but I think by late Feb, maybe the very beginning of March. And the models haven't picked up on it yet, obviously, or you'd be hearing all about it from everyone. Last update from RB-Wan Kenobi said prospects regarding his forecast looked strong, so for now, in ray we trust and may the schwartz be with us.

I mean of course, it could just as easily be the end of the road for snow...but as of right now, for sure all hope is not lost.

as much as i love snow and certainly would love at least 1 more significant snowstorm along with a few small events, its not even the lack of snow in the long term forecast that is depressing, its seeing high 40s and 50s almost daily after this weeks short term cold, when we still have 2 plus weeks left in feb and a whole March.

Hope the experts on this site end up being right about things that havent been picked up yet by others. Not ready for weather like we had today in feb just yet.

This right here is the heart-breaker for me too.  We are in the best month for snow and we're getting a storm this week where it'll be mid 60s!  Just sucks!

[dolphins222]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

Here's how that can change in a hurry: The RB Pattern Flip. Not exactly sure when that is due to take effect, but I think by late Feb, maybe the very beginning of March. And the models haven't picked up on it yet, obviously, or you'd be hearing all about it from everyone. Last update from RB-Wan Kenobi said prospects regarding his forecast looked strong, so for now, in ray we trust and may the schwartz be with us.

I mean of course, it could just as easily be the end of the road for snow...but as of right now, for sure all hope is not lost.

as much as i love snow and certainly would love at least 1 more significant snowstorm along with a few small events, its not even the lack of snow in the long term forecast that is depressing, its seeing high 40s and 50s almost daily after this weeks short term cold, when we still have 2 plus weeks left in feb and a whole March.

Hope the experts on this site end up being right about things that havent been picked up yet by others. Not ready for weather like we had today in feb just yet.

This right here is the heart-breaker for me too.  We are in the best month for snow and we're getting a storm this week where it'll be mid 60s!  Just sucks!

it sucks, and i feel this is becoming the norm, not just a rare occurence. Hopefully we still get some more snow, and the long term forecasts by the weather models end up being wrong

[rb924119]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

If I was a betting man, I certainly wouldn’t bet against March to at least give us more opportunities. Whether or not they actually deliver remains to be seen, but I am thinking we see a similar pattern set up again beginning the first week of March that will be similar to what we saw in January and opening of this month. I’m still unsure about the development of Atlantic domain blocking, though. As it is, don’t write February off, as we can still pull something off, as is being evidenced early tomorrow morning.

[rb924119]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

Here's how that can change in a hurry: The RB Pattern Flip. Not exactly sure when that is due to take effect, but I think by late Feb, maybe the very beginning of March. And the models haven't picked up on it yet, obviously, or you'd be hearing all about it from everyone. Last update from RB-Wan Kenobi said prospects regarding his forecast looked strong, so for now, in ray we trust and may the schwartz be with us.

I mean of course, it could just as easily be the end of the road for snow...but as of right now, for sure all hope is not lost.

[rb924119]

Anything interesting in the long term, or is tonight- tomm small event our last hurrah for winter?

looking at long term temps on accuweather is very depressing for the nyc metro area. all i see is high 40s and 50s after the mini cold shot this week

After this event, I think most of the rest of February is shot and actually warmer in temps.

anything in the month of March, or are we doomed for the rest of winter?

If I was a betting man, I certainly wouldn’t bet against March to at least give us more opportunities. Whether or not they actually deliver remains to be seen, but I am thinking we see a similar pattern set up again beginning the first week of March that will be similar to what we saw in January and opening of this month. I’m still unsure about the development of Atlantic domain blocking, though. As it is, don’t write February off, as we can still pull something off, as is being evidenced early tomorrow morning.

Right. On. Schedule.



Southeast ridge already getting squashed for a couple days here, so we are already transitioning back toward January’s pattern before the end of February, verbatim.

Trust the process, folks.

[rb924119]

What SHOULD happen next after this frame, is the relative weakness in the ridging in the southwestern CONUS should begin to fold under the ridge building to its north over the Pacific Northwest and B.C. As it does, that opens the door for the Southeast Ridge to retrograde westward into the Southwest, which then allows the trough to reform body and soul over the eastern CONUS. It’s a multi-day process, but that’s what should follow. FWIW the extended GFS Ensemble does exactly this and locks in though Week 3of March. Let the good times roll.

[rb924119]

What SHOULD happen next after this frame, is the relative weakness in the ridging in the southwestern CONUS should begin to fold under the ridge building to its north over the Pacific Northwest and B.C. As it does, that opens the door for the Southeast Ridge to retrograde westward into the Southwest, which then allows the trough to reform body and soul over the eastern CONUS. It’s a multi-day process, but that’s what should follow. FWIW the extended GFS Ensemble does exactly this and locks in though Week 3of March. Let the good times roll.

BOOM.




“Sir. It appears her switch has been turned from ‘Suck’ to ‘Snow’!”

[sroc4]

What SHOULD happen next after this frame, is the relative weakness in the ridging in the southwestern CONUS should begin to fold under the ridge building to its north over the Pacific Northwest and B.C. As it does, that opens the door for the Southeast Ridge to retrograde westward into the Southwest, which then allows the trough to reform body and soul over the eastern CONUS. It’s a multi-day process, but that’s what should follow. FWIW the extended GFS Ensemble does exactly this and locks in though Week 3of March. Let the good times roll.

BOOM.




“Sir. It appears her switch has been turned from ‘Suck’ to ‘Snow’!”

I really hope people appreciate this quote lol

[heehaw453]

I believe NJ coast is done for the season IMO outside of minor accumulations. This is way too hostile to overcome for anything meaningful.  It basically means cold air is going to be bottled up in Canada and not push down into US.  March I expect that to relax a bit and then interior may have "some shots" probably after 1st week of March. I-95 maybe can also be involved in March, but that's a big IF.

[SENJsnowman]

Talk about hostile: Heehaw sends a salvo across the bow!! Just kidding, and you've been hinting at this for a bit now. All I'll say in defense of some earnest optimism for myself and other NJ Coasties, we do manage to thread the needle when possible enough of the time that hope always exists for something at the shore, as long as there is a storm that can produce nearby.

But I hear you and appreciate the heads up! No complaints over here for sure...like everyone else, if it's gonna be snow less, I'm hoping for warmer and sunnier, at least come March 10 or 15th time.

[dkodgis]

It certainly seems the pack will last for a week. I will enjoy it

[MattyICE]

It certainly seems the pack will last for a week. I will enjoy it

Yeah? Where do you live? I’m in NE NJ snd we will see 50°+ on Wednesday and 60°+ on Thursday. “Pack” will only last 2 days here.

[rb924119]

What SHOULD happen next after this frame, is the relative weakness in the ridging in the southwestern CONUS should begin to fold under the ridge building to its north over the Pacific Northwest and B.C. As it does, that opens the door for the Southeast Ridge to retrograde westward into the Southwest, which then allows the trough to reform body and soul over the eastern CONUS. It’s a multi-day process, but that’s what should follow. FWIW the extended GFS Ensemble does exactly this and locks in though Week 3of March. Let the good times roll.

BOOM.




“Sir. It appears her switch has been turned from ‘Suck’ to ‘Snow’!”

I really hope people appreciate this quote lol

I’m just glad somebody understood what I tried to do there aha

[amugs]

I believe NJ coast is done for the season IMO outside of minor accumulations.  This is way too hostile to overcome for anything meaningful.  It basically means cold air is going to be bottled up in Canada and not push down into US.  March I expect that to relax a bit and then interior may have "some shots" probably after 1st week of March.  I-95 maybe can also be involved in March, but that's a big IF.

I have learned that the AO yes when N can be cold to extremely cold BUT the EPO/WPO couplet when both N though 6-8K miles away are what the drives of cold. The AO was + a majority of Dec and what did we get???? Warmth overall. When the EPO/WPO (DOC/CP couplet) go N the cold gets drilled into the Plains and then NE. NOW like last year until we had teh split we had a N EPO positioned to far west but the WPO was N to Positive so it cold not overcome that WC trough. You 'd bet your dollar that if the WPO went N it would have pulled that trough over the WC back and pushed the EPO N more east.
Just discussing it here Hee and I value your input here and this is what we have seen in 12-13 2nd half, 13-14, 14-15, 17-18, 20-21,21-22.

Here they are about the pattern upcoming!!! BTW love my brethren's CP and DOC, major part of the Quartet Band we formed on this board back in 13-14 !!

[rb924119]

I believe NJ coast is done for the season IMO outside of minor accumulations.  This is way too hostile to overcome for anything meaningful.  It basically means cold air is going to be bottled up in Canada and not push down into US.  March I expect that to relax a bit and then interior may have "some shots" probably after 1st week of March.  I-95 maybe can also be involved in March, but that's a big IF.

Heehaw, the AO is not the powerhouse it used to be. Think about it, the AO was strongly positive for the last six weeks, yet we managed to average 2-4 degrees below average during that stretch.  Meanwhile, the only time it went negative, our temperatures spiked in both the second half of December, as well as more recently in this six-week stretch . There are several other examples of this in recent years . The Pacific domain has become much more important to governing our weather. So just because this teleconnection is hostile, I wouldn’t discount the rest of our Winter Season.

[dkodgis]

Mattyice, I am near Sullivan county

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