Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

[Snow88]

Tomorrow should be an interesting  day with squalls 

[heehaw453]

GFS very close to being a sig snow storm for much of the area. It continues with the idea of a transfer along the Delmarva. A hair faster and it's a 6-12" event. This is very likely going to have snow especially NW of I95 unlike beginning of February.

[Snow88]

6z gfs ups the ante

[heehaw453]

Euro isn't bought in yet, but IMO it is advertising the transfer just later in the game. Goal posts are set IMO. If we get robust mid-level energy pass to our west then a couple of inches will do it NW I95. If we get a robust and efficient transfer around the Va/Delmarva this can be 10" in many places of this forum. I'm thinking NW of I95 moderate snow is a good goal for now. Coast minor snow event. Again for now as it's D5/6.

[sroc4]

Here are some of the major differences between the set up for Friday the 25th threat between the GFS and Euro.

The maps shown are valid 00z Friday(about 7pm Thursday eve) as the trough is beginning to move though the plains states, and the system is getting its act together.  This is a critical juncture for how it plays out when it arrives in the east 12-24hrrs later.  

A stronger system over the plains and/or weaker less organized system up in NE Canada/north Atlantic means the HP set up gets bullied out of the way and we get more CAD atthe surface, infiltrate the midlevels with warmth, and worry where the ice and sleet threat sets up.  If the system over the plains is weaker and slower, and/or the system up in NE Canada/N Atlantic is more consolidated and stronger the more likely we get the more snowy solns like GFS is showing which involves an earlier transfer Ala front end over running with the possible Miller B type set up.  

Snow, sleet ZR(freezing rain), and rain all still on the table for all.  Exact details still FAR from know.  NW favored for now; coast def still in play







WE TRACK!!!

[SENJsnowman]

Thanks for all the updates guys. If I understand what you all have been saying lately with regards to the coast, we've hit the time of year where the climatology begins to work against us and the needle gets even tougher to thread, but the atmospheric conditions (such as 'shorter wavelengths in the NAO' I think I saw someone write?) tend to offer individual opportunities with still fairly high upside. Sounds about right to me based on what I've come to expect from living here for the past 10 years. It's almost impossible for us to stay all snow on a coastal as we get into March. The slider storms tend to set up in decent locations for us far more frequently. But the coastals have the real upside, so...

Looks like a fairly low chance for the coast to stay all white next week, maybe like a 10-15% chance...but that's more than enough for the likes of me, especially a week out! We track.

[heehaw453]

Thanks for all the updates guys. If I understand what you all have been saying lately with regards to the coast, we've hit the time of year where the climatology begins to work against us and the needle gets even tougher to thread, but the atmospheric conditions (such as 'shorter wavelengths in the NAO' I think I saw someone write?) tend to offer individual opportunities with still fairly high upside. Sounds about right to me based on what I've come to expect from living here for the past 10 years. It's almost impossible for us to stay all snow on a coastal as we get into March. The slider storms tend to set up in decent locations for us far more frequently. But the coastals have the real upside, so...

Looks like a fairly low chance for the coast to stay all white next week, maybe like a 10-15% chance...but that's more than enough for the likes of me, especially a week out! We track.

I think you are right.  IMO JC will taint on this one and limit potential.  Where I can see a real surprise is LI.  If the primary transfers quickly and efficiently they are far enough N latitude and would be closest to the main precip shield. So if everything lined up perfectly 10-12" spot on them isn't out of the question.  There is a hard ceiling on this as is there is nothing to stop the progressive flow.

[sroc4]

Man. I wish 12zGFS was Wednesday. So much to love

[heehaw453]

12Z GFS/GEFS insists that the L will transfer and not cut to our west and keep most of the area colder. That's really what this comes down to. Until I see some good alignment with the Euro I split the difference between the two. Say the L cuts but starts it's transfer phase fast enough to get front end stuff.

[sroc4]

Man. I wish 12zGFS was Wednesday. So much to love

I am sitting waiting for a hair cut ATM or I’d elaborate

[Dunnzoo]

Haha, my first day out of town! Of course we'll have to see what actually transpires, but as long as I get out Thursday, you guys can enjoy!

[heehaw453]

I expect the Euro to keep advertising the warmer look and if it's going to start changing won't be until Sunday night/Monday. GFS should be given less than normal credence as it's been erratic lately.

[jmanley32]

Man. I wish 12zGFS was Wednesday. So much to love

I am sitting waiting for a hair cut ATM or I’d elaborate

Ha I just finished mine too..getting your ears lowered as my dad with his bad jokes used to say.

[heehaw453]

It's not fast or efficient enough, but the signs of a transfer are showing up on the Euro.  

[heehaw453]

The 12Z Euro run is a bit better. More transfer to a coastal. Euro has a good amount of work to do to get anywhere near a nice event for NW areas. If this was D3 I'd say not a chance, but it's D6.

[heehaw453]

18Z GFS consistent with previous 4 runs. Transfers the low in time for this area. It's showing Mason Dixon Line as the decent snowfall delineation mark. Obviously I won't be shocked if it moves that 200 miles north in the next 2 or 3 days.

[jmanley32]

18z GFS 8-12" for 99% of board...

[heehaw453]

The GEFS was more robust on the mean. Would most favor rt 80 on North.

[heehaw453]

Look at the SE ridge on the GEFS vs the EPS.  On the GEFS the TPV over Greenland is more robust and pushes down further. It also links up better with the central US trough with the GEFS helping to beat that SE ridge down.  To me that's the difference.  That's what flattens heights and would support a progressive flow transfer ala GFS.  Not big synoptic differences at D5/6 but make all the difference.  Hope for a strong TPV which would act as a quasi block here.

[heehaw453]

Expect GFS will continue to bolster the SE ridge and this sig snow line could get pushed to I84 when it fully corrects. Give it another 36 hours or so...

[Irish]

Looks like a lot of warm temps next week.

[jmanley32]

Expect GFS will continue to bolster the SE ridge and this sig snow line could get pushed to I84 when it fully corrects.  Give it another 36 hours or so...

Where do I sign? This would put my area at or even I think above normal .

[dkodgis]

And cold temps the week after tgat

[heehaw453]

The GFS is continuing to correct folks. The SE ridge pushes back more each run which means higher heights and a stronger L that brings in warm air at the mid-levels. It must commended this time as the correction process is starting D5 instead of D3.  Give it another 10 years of R&D work and it may get on par with other guidance.  I still believe March can offer a real opportunity for the interior and possibly I95, but truth be told the luck just ain't there this year.

This maybe too pessimistic from Euro, but  I think the idea is correct.  Past I-84 for anything moderate and minor accumulations south of there.  Just to show the differences and this is exactly the disparity at D5 that occurred on Feb 4.  Euro never bought into the sig snow.

00Z Euro




06Z GFS

[Snow88]

The weekend storm looks good for interior areas of NY and SNE. The eps keeps going north.

[Snow88]

The GFS is continuing to correct folks. The SE ridge pushes back more each run which means higher heights and a stronger L that brings in warm air at the mid-levels. It must commended this time as the correction process is starting D5 instead of D3.  Give it another 10 years of R&D work and it may get on par with other guidance.  I still believe March can offer a real opportunity for the interior and possibly I95, but truth be told the luck just ain't there this year.

This maybe too pessimistic from Euro, but  I think the idea is correct.  Past I-84 for anything moderate and minor accumulations south of there.  Just to show the differences and this is exactly the disparity at D5 that occurred on Feb 4.  Euro never bought into the sig snow.

00Z Euro




06Z GFS

What luck ? I'm at 22 inches for the winter which is near normal here in NYC area.

[heehaw453]

The GFS is continuing to correct folks. The SE ridge pushes back more each run which means higher heights and a stronger L that brings in warm air at the mid-levels. It must commended this time as the correction process is starting D5 instead of D3.  Give it another 10 years of R&D work and it may get on par with other guidance.  I still believe March can offer a real opportunity for the interior and possibly I95, but truth be told the luck just ain't there this year.

This maybe too pessimistic from Euro, but  I think the idea is correct.  Past I-84 for anything moderate and minor accumulations south of there.  Just to show the differences and this is exactly the disparity at D5 that occurred on Feb 4.  Euro never bought into the sig snow.

00Z Euro




06Z GFS

What luck ? I'm at 22 inches for the winter which is near normal here in NYC area.

If we had help from the Atlantic domain my guess is you'd be double that especially with the good PAC we've had. This is not a terrible winter by any stretch IMO, however, with the PAC as good as it's been PHL-NYC and NW burbs haven't done well with w.r.t. snowfall. It is what it is.

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