JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

heehaw453 wrote:Look how it's closing this off now.  I think we can do earlier.

Can you show us what you are looking at on these maps. I am oblivious. Thanks in advance.

uanswer2me wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Look how it's closing this off now.  I think we can do earlier.

Can you show us what you are looking at on these maps. I am oblivious. Thanks in advance.

It indicates the energy that the upper level storm is outputting. The lower the number the more snow as it's stronger. We want to see that circle form around Ocean City MD.

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

Ya mean it wasn't accurate when it was giving a snowstorm to Newfoundland yesterday? It's a POS model. An American embarrassment. The Nam isn't much better either.

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

I would put its Boxing Day failure higher on the list.

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

In fairness, I posted the 228 hour GFS map a while back jokingly referring to locking it in and that look (days ago) actually was pretty accurate as of today. Do we credit it for being on to it early even if it dropped the ball bigly later?

Who is going to stay up and read out the O z Euro for us?

My bigger take away from GFS run is its ensembles 500mb.  Game On!!

It's beautiful.

Also beautiful is our first STORM MODE banner of the year!!!!

Can we just admire the RAP even though it's the RAP lol

As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend. Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out. But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow. I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown. Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted. The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

I wish you luck. I would have done the same!

aiannone wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

I wish you luck. I would have done the same!

Of course, all of this could shift back east, screwing over everyone's snow maps.

I know late-March 2014 you went to Cape Cod cause there was several inches of snow though not much else in New England. At least you get to meet Jim Cantore.

Math23x7 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

I wish you luck. I would have done the same!

Of course, all of this could shift back east, screwing over everyone's snow maps.  

I know late-March 2014 you went to Cape Cod cause there was several inches of snow though not much else in New England.  At least you get to meet Jim Cantore.

Yes I did. That was a great experience.

Zhukov1945 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

In fairness, I posted the 228 hour GFS map a while back jokingly referring to locking it in and that look (days ago) actually was pretty accurate as of today.  Do we credit it for being on to it early even if it dropped the ball bigly later?

True, it does get credit. Actually, looking back at my post from January 18th in the long range thread I used the GFS 500mb map to illustrate this storms potential. It normally does sniff them out but once it comes time for execution it fails, at least with Miller As

uanswer2me wrote:Who is going to stay up and read out the O z Euro for us?

I’m barely hanging on. Might have to be in the morning for me

Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

This is SO cool Mike. This is something I also have on my bucket list. I truly think Long Island to Boston is jackpotting so I think you’re in a good spot. Take pics and videos

Mike just put the hex on BOX lmao it’s definitely coming now!! but for real, doh, GEM is just incredible at H5.

RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).

So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?

Hrdps crushes LI

aiannone wrote:Hrdps crushes LI

I think milage wise this storm is bigger than sandy was or close anyways, look how far reaching in all directions it is.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).

So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?

I think you just answered your own question

I like this as an I-95 special, perhaps even a bit west of that. We’ll see. Our collective ideas have had merit so far tonight. Fingers crossed.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).

So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?

I think you just answered your own question

I like this as an I-95 special, perhaps even a bit west of that. We’ll see. Our collective ideas have had merit so far tonight. Fingers crossed.

Yeah dumbest question ever, I basically measured and you had already said it is possible lol, im almost asleep leave me be lol

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).

So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?

I think you just answered your own question

I like this as an I-95 special, perhaps even a bit west of that. We’ll see. Our collective ideas have had merit so far tonight. Fingers crossed.

Yeah dumbest question ever, I basically measured and you had already said it is possible lol, im almost asleep leave me be lol

Lmaooooo

You’re fine, jman haha we’re all high on model data right now, you’re not alone.

Who is still up for the Euro?

Haha - I was just about to post the same thing.

Not sure if I'm staying up, though.

JT33 wrote:Haha - I was just about to post the same thing.

Hoping someone is on that can fill us in then I can sleep peacefully.