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JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

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Post by hyde345 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

Ya mean it wasn't accurate when it was giving a snowstorm to Newfoundland yesterday? It's a POS model. An American embarrassment. The Nam isn't much better either.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

I would put its Boxing Day failure higher on the list.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

In fairness, I posted the 228 hour GFS map a while back jokingly referring to locking it in and that look (days ago) actually was pretty accurate as of today. Do we credit it for being on to it early even if it dropped the ball bigly later?
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Post by uanswer2me Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:15 pm

Who is going to stay up and read out the O z Euro for us?

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:16 pm

My bigger take away from GFS run is its ensembles 500mb.  Game On!!

It's beautiful.

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:20 pm

Also beautiful is our first STORM MODE banner of the year!!!!

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:20 pm

Can we just admire the RAP even though it's the RAP lol
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 6 27284710
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:21 pm

As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend. Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out. But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow. I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown. Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted. The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:22 pm

Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

I wish you luck. I would have done the same!
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:24 pm

aiannone wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

I wish you luck. I would have done the same!

Of course, all of this could shift back east, screwing over everyone's snow maps.

I know late-March 2014 you went to Cape Cod cause there was several inches of snow though not much else in New England. At least you get to meet Jim Cantore.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:26 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

I wish you luck. I would have done the same!

Of course, all of this could shift back east, screwing over everyone's snow maps.  

I know late-March 2014 you went to Cape Cod cause there was several inches of snow though not much else in New England.  At least you get to meet Jim Cantore.

Yes I did. That was a great experience.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:26 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

In fairness, I posted the 228 hour GFS map a while back jokingly referring to locking it in and that look (days ago) actually was pretty accurate as of today.  Do we credit it for being on to it early even if it dropped the ball bigly later?

True, it does get credit. Actually, looking back at my post from January 18th in the long range thread I used the GFS 500mb map to illustrate this storms potential. It normally does sniff them out but once it comes time for execution it fails, at least with Miller As


uanswer2me wrote:Who is going to stay up and read out the O z Euro for us?

I’m barely hanging on. Might have to be in the morning for me

Math23x7 wrote:As you probably know, I live in Albany which is not forecasted to get the heavy snow this weekend.  Seeing what is happening to the south and east kind of made me feel left out.  But just now, I just did something I had been considering the past two nights: I booked a weekend hotel reservation for the snow.  I could have gone downstate for this but no, I chose a hotel located between Worcester and Beantown.  Model guidance suggests a Roidzilla for this region with heavy winds.

I am waiting for something to go wrong though, like if something comes up preventing me from going or if the place I am going to gets dry-slotted.  The biggest gut-punch (though unlikely) is the storm ends up going 150 miles west of where forecasted and gives the place I'm staying at rain but Albany a Roidzilla.

This is SO cool Mike. This is something I also have on my bucket list. I truly think Long Island to Boston is jackpotting so I think you’re in a good spot. Take pics and videos

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:28 pm

Mike just put the hex on BOX lmao it’s definitely coming now!! 😂 but for real, doh, GEM is just incredible at H5.

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Post by hyde345 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:35 pm

RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:38 pm

hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).
So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:42 pm

Hrdps crushes LI
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 6 4194a610
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:46 pm

aiannone wrote:Hrdps crushes LI
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 6 4194a610
I think milage wise this storm is bigger than sandy was or close anyways, look how far reaching in all directions it is.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).
So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?

I think you just answered your own question Wink

I like this as an I-95 special, perhaps even a bit west of that. We’ll see. Our collective ideas have had merit so far tonight. Fingers crossed.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).
So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?

I think you just answered your own question Wink

I like this as an I-95 special, perhaps even a bit west of that. We’ll see. Our collective ideas have had merit so far tonight. Fingers crossed.
Yeah dumbest question ever, I basically measured and you had already said it is possible lol, im almost asleep leave me be lol
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:RB, how much further west you think this could come realistically? 50 miles?

Ballpark? Yeah, probably. But that’s not even necessarily the location of the low. The precip field should expand that much if the mid-levels behave as currently modeled (not even if they get better from here).
So 50 miles is all it would take on many of tonights runs to get NYC immediate area into 1-2 ft+, is that possible?

I think you just answered your own question Wink

I like this as an I-95 special, perhaps even a bit west of that. We’ll see. Our collective ideas have had merit so far tonight. Fingers crossed.
Yeah dumbest question ever, I basically measured and you had already said it is possible lol, im almost asleep leave me be lol

Lmaooooo

You’re fine, jman haha we’re all high on model data right now, you’re not alone.

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Post by uanswer2me Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:46 am

Who is still up for the Euro? 😬

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Post by JT33 Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:48 am

Haha - I was just about to post the same thing.

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Post by JT33 Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:48 am

Not sure if I'm staying up, though.

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Post by uanswer2me Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:49 am

JT33 wrote:Haha - I was just about to post the same thing.

Hoping someone is on that can fill us in then I can sleep peacefully.

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