JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

jmanley32 wrote:Anyone snowing? Radar has a batch snow over tristate unexpected

It's not quite here yet, I'll let you know

Scullybutcher wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

January 23, 2016 Long Island’s largest snow fall of 23.4” a little over 6 years ago.

Will we break that record?  

That may have been the record at Islip airport but I can tell you the blizzard of 2013 was the most snow Long Island got. I had about 30”

https://patch.com/new-york/bellmore/snowiest-day-record-days-long-island-saw-most-snowfall

I was going to say....I think I had 27 or 28 here in west babylon

[quote="rb924119"]Like heehaw said, we ain’t done that is all

Wanna wait for better maps, but 0z RGEM looks great and west as well

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Is this a good time to live directly underneath the 5? No, still too soon right? Oh man...
If you only new the nerves...but easily the most fun I've ever had. One.More.Day.  

Interesting now the very end of Cape Cod is barely getting 6 inches because it must obviously be changing to rain. Or just dry slotted not really sure. But look at the totals decrease in Boston as the increase in central Connecticut. Tomorrow even tonight’s runs will be very interesting.

CP, our resident meteorologists in the long range crew have been saying a few days now the surface maps do not co-incide with the upper levels and that a more west solution should be in the cards.A huge storm with a negative tilt should throw back heavy snow a lot more west , but that's only in my unknowledgeable eye.We are creeping slowly to a foot up here on that Crapola map.Will be fun to see tomorrows data, coming up to nowcast.My Sister in Ocean Grove right on the Jersey Shore will be ecstatic.She is as big a snowaholic as me and she is 81 years old,lol.
Lot's of fun coming up the next few days.

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Like heehaw said, we ain’t done that is all

Bring it home Mugsy!!!

Guys remember this? Just yesterday 06z, crazy. This may be the outcome is NW shifts continue but not on 30th, talk about a reversal.

RGEM is NW as well

Frank Its the oldtimer Dont do much but watch all the time The Great Great job you do along with the amazing group I followed you all last night late This has been great at this time We will get all out of this if God wants.......What a storm And the graphics Amazing!!!

Only 9 included in the NAM..."SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0206Z FRI JAN 28 2022

The 00Z NCEP model production is running on time. Observations
available for NAM ingest included 11 Alaskan, 28 Canadian,
69 CONUS, 13 Mexican, 6 Caribbean, and 9 Pacific raobs. There
were also 9 winter storm recon dropsondes courtesy of the USAF
over the Western Atlantic and NOAA mission over the Pacific."

RGEM closes off a tad sooner than NAM nice move up. Need a few more.

oldtimer wrote:Frank   Its the oldtimer   Dont  do much but watch all the time    The Great Great job you do along with the amazing group   I followed you all last night late   This has been great at this time  We will get all out of this if God wants.......What a storm  And the graphics   Amazing!!!

Ciao paisano mio. Nice to hear from you and hope you’ve been well

amugs wrote:RGEM closes off a tad sooner than NAM nice move up. Need a few more.

I think this is heading in the right direction...

Believe it or not, the northern stream energy is still not fully sampled on models. It’s still way way up in northern Canada where there is limited satellites. Starting at 12z tomorrow the models should have better data to work off of. So, imagine if this northern stream energy is actually stronger than what models currently show? These west trends today are likely no coincidence…

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

January 23, 2016 Long Island’s largest snow fall of 23.4” a little over 6 years ago.

Will we break that record?  

Where in Long Island. Places in Long Island have had larger snowfalls than that in several different storms.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

January 23, 2016 Long Island’s largest snow fall of 23.4” a little over 6 years ago.

Will we break that record?  

Where in Long Island. Places in Long Island have had larger snowfalls than that in several different storms.

yeah places have had over 30" here on the island

bloc1357 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

January 23, 2016 Long Island’s largest snow fall of 23.4” a little over 6 years ago.

Will we break that record?  

Where in Long Island. Places in Long Island have had larger snowfalls than that in several different storms.

yeah places have had over 30" here on the island

Orient Point got 30" from Juno.

GFS closes off H5 around same time as NAM

Safe to say the GFS got destroyed with this storm. One of the worst model performances of all time

Math23x7 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

January 23, 2016 Long Island’s largest snow fall of 23.4” a little over 6 years ago.

Will we break that record?  

Where in Long Island. Places in Long Island have had larger snowfalls than that in several different storms.

yeah places have had over 30" here on the island

Orient Point got 30" from Juno.

Ok. I guess the Official depth is off.

I don’t think we are breaking 30” on this one but ya never know.

Ok had to attend a dinner that started at 6pm. What did I miss lol

GFS has no idea what to do with the dynamics. It's just lost...

GFS has caved. Officially

aiannone wrote:Ok had to attend a dinner that started at 6pm. What did I miss lol

You’re in line for a Roidzilla

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:Ok had to attend a dinner that started at 6pm. What did I miss lol

You’re in line for a Roidzilla

Ho leeee sheeee i just saw the GFS and now that it's on board it's game time. Looks just like 18z Euro, 0z NAM, 0z RGEM. We are having our consensus.

Look how it's closing this off now.  I think we can do earlier.

heehaw453 wrote:Look how it's closing this off now.  I think we can do earlier.

Can you show us what you are looking at on these maps. I am oblivious. Thanks in advance.

uanswer2me wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Look how it's closing this off now.  I think we can do earlier.

Can you show us what you are looking at on these maps. I am oblivious. Thanks in advance.

It indicates the energy that the upper level storm is outputting. The lower the number the more snow as it's stronger. We want to see that circle form around Ocean City MD.