JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

aiannone wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:RGEM went east as did the NAM. The reason I’m not concerned at this point is that the models are having a difficult time with the complex setup. This double barrel low look is BS. The low wants to move NE but then at some as of now undetermined time stamp will be captured. Models are having a tough time when and where this takes place so in effect it shows both. Eventually the models will clear up this issue. Anyways after the 12 Suite it’s now casting  time.

RGEM wasnt that much changed from 6z

6z


12z

I was looking at the low placement and it did tick east, but then again it had that elongated look to it. RGEM had a larger western moisture shield this run which compensated with the eastern movement.

Fededle22 wrote:NWS has me at 4-6 inches of snow. Find that odd with the western ticks we have seen in the models. Figured since I am less than 20 miles from the coast that I would be in the 6-10 inch range.

You're in a risk area for subsidence

Latest HRRR is tucking in low at hour 17.

The FV3 big jump west

WRF big jump west

This is what we were discussing the other night - Alex, Frank, Me and Zoo Latent heat release of teh dynamics of the storm - Ace? This guy taught a friend at Plymouth State Met. Could be?
With this then a tucked slight adjustment west and a tick up in qpf cold be possible IF this is verified.

Convection (i.e. latent heat release) is likely causing a low to run east out ahead of the dynamically forced low on the NAM and pulls the precip shield east with it. (2/2). This storm is befuddling the best meteorologists and models alike... pic.twitter.com/QdntiuWa8d

— Mitch (@VermonsterWx) January 28, 2022

freezerburn wrote:Latest HRRR is tucking in low at hour 17.  

The FV3 big jump west

WRF big jump west

HRRR

Hey all! Looks like the shore gets the goods with this one. I say congrats!

We had our 35 inch storm last year up here in Sussex. Happy to see other members cash in.

Me personally, if I eek out 4-6 i'll be perfectly content. Am in the process of selling my house and the last thing I need is 2 feet of snow to contend with on top of this crazy market....

Plus I still have about 3 inches on the ground already from previous snow storms, so it already looks pretty up here. Good luck to everyone, and once again what an excellent forum for discussion. I've been following since earlier this week about this storm and level of knowledge and camaraderie here is very unique and special. Hat's off to you all and best of luck!

When do we know of this move east is model issues or if it is real, as its happening or on future model runs?

GFS

lglickman1 wrote:When do we know of this move east is model issues or if it is real, as its happening or on future model runs?

Honestly I think we need to go by intuition at this point and forget models.

These are the facts in my opinion:

1. 500mb is not closing off at an ideal longitude for MAJORITY of posters on here. I've been preaching for days we need it closed at 12z (7am) Saturday, but its happening between 15z-18z on guidance

2. The upper level jet gets going at our latitude but once the trough goes neutral/negative we see this jet shift east over the northern Atlantic

3. Not much in the way of high latitude blocking

4. The truly epic 700mb frontogenesis bands are likely to stay offshore, which will cause pretty awful snow growth and subsidence to preside over the area leading to extreme cut-off's to the west-northwest

About 1.5" so far. 29.3/27.8 Light/moderate snow continues...

heehaw453 wrote:About 1.5" so far.  29.3/27.8  Light/moderate snow continues...

Observation thread

Frank_Wx wrote:

I think that is reasonable.

left-1am right-9am mhmmm pic.twitter.com/yrs3CcGYq8

— WeatherStef (@EstefanoRendon) January 28, 2022

Interesting - this woudl dig the northern energy quicker and it looks stronger. We are in teh range of nowcasting peeps. Get out the Meso maps !

Frank_Wx wrote:

Every time I see a k-uchera snow map I die a little inside.

lglickman1 wrote:When do we know of this move east is model issues or if it is real, as its happening or on future model runs?

Oh wow your in NR?! We are neighbors! I work at the guidance center on huguenot.

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

I think that is reasonable.

I am in that 10-11 inch range With all snow strong winds I am happy with that

In looking at current satellite imagery, looks to me like we are already starting to our mid-level flow beginning to back. Could be artifact/illusion, but in seeing the meso-scale page’s depiction of H5 wind, I’m skeptical that it isn’t real.

rb924119 wrote:In looking at current satellite imagery, looks to me like we are already starting to our mid-level flow beginning to back. Could be artifact/illusion, but in seeing the meso-scale page’s depiction of H5 wind, I’m skeptical that it isn’t real.

Can you explain what that means, implications?

frank 638 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

I think that is reasonable.

I am in that 10-11 inch range With all snow strong winds I am happy with that

Super sharp cut off your in 10-11 i ma in 8-9 literally a few miles from u, this is going to all be nowcast. Hopefully we can get a surprise.

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:In looking at current satellite imagery, looks to me like we are already starting to our mid-level flow beginning to back. Could be artifact/illusion, but in seeing the meso-scale page’s depiction of H5 wind, I’m skeptical that it isn’t real.

Can you explain what that means, implications?

Mid-level flow reorienting from southwesterly to more southerly, eventually southeasterly. This will help redirect the various forcing mechanisms more north than east as the process continues.

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:In looking at current satellite imagery, looks to me like we are already starting to our mid-level flow beginning to back. Could be artifact/illusion, but in seeing the meso-scale page’s depiction of H5 wind, I’m skeptical that it isn’t real.

Can you explain what that means, implications?

Mid-level flow reorienting from southwesterly to more southerly, eventually southeasterly. This will help redirect the various forcing mechanisms more north than east as the process continues.

Oooh, that would help most of the board cash in.

rb924119 wrote:In looking at current satellite imagery, looks to me like we are already starting to our mid-level flow beginning to back. Could be artifact/illusion, but in seeing the meso-scale page’s depiction of H5 wind, I’m skeptical that it isn’t real.

Do you still feel this comes forther west or the snow expansion is more west than shown on recent models? I was looking at a foot as of last night and 06z and now it is slowly backing down to single digits. Is it just going to be a nowcast basically with no real warning of the extent of the storm?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:In looking at current satellite imagery, looks to me like we are already starting to our mid-level flow beginning to back. Could be artifact/illusion, but in seeing the meso-scale page’s depiction of H5 wind, I’m skeptical that it isn’t real.

Do you still feel this comes forther west or the snow expansion is more west than shown on recent models? I was looking at a foot as of last night and 06z and now it is slowly backing down to single digits.  Is it just going to be a nowcast basically with no real warning of the extent of the storm?

Yes x2 lol

Now I will be greedy and say how can we prevent this cutter Wed-Thurs with 45+ degree temps so when we go back to the freezer friday night we still have a snowpack lol

So I guess NWS will be upping snow totals if warranted and issuing blizzard warnings if criteria might be met for the other upton areas during the storm? Which at that time seems pointless lol