JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

So I guess NWS will be upping snow totals if warranted and issuing blizzard warnings if criteria might be met for the other upton areas during the storm? Which at that time seems pointless lol

jmanley32 wrote:So I guess NWS will be upping snow totals if warranted and issuing blizzard warnings if criteria might be met for the other upton areas during the storm? Which at that time seems pointless lol

if RB and Quietace line of thinking is correct, they will up the totals during the storm as warranted. We’ve seen it before with some of the big ones in the past.

aiannone wrote:

No Cantore on the Island. That stinks.. Cantore and Seidel are my guys for storm coverage.. Also dont get hanging in Montauk

jmanley32 wrote:So I guess NWS will be upping snow totals if warranted and issuing blizzard warnings if criteria might be met for the other upton areas during the storm? Which at that time seems pointless lol

I have been so busy with work the last couple days how’s it looking for you with snow totals. I am still I. 10 to 12 inches do u think for our area it will go up

aiannone wrote:

Cantore’s always has to be where the biggest snows are forecast. Hope he dry slots.

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So I guess NWS will be upping snow totals if warranted and issuing blizzard warnings if criteria might be met for the other upton areas during the storm? Which at that time seems pointless lol

I have been so busy with work the last couple days how’s it looking for you with snow totals. I am still I. 10 to 12 inches do u think for our area it will go up

our NWS warning is 6-9, I go by that not the models.  I sure hope so and from what ace, mugs and rb, and i believe frank have said yes they expect a westward expansion for snow totals. i also think we might be upgraded to a blizzard warning if metrics are met, may not be until the storm is upon us though, but that is just symantics, really doesnt matter, though I do love wthe wind with the snow, its far less damaging than in summer and it looks so cool.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Cantore’s always has to be where the biggest snows are forecast. Hope he dry slots.

well theres no doubt now with cantore in boston thats where all the snow will get sucked into like a vaccum.lol

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Cantore’s always has to be where the biggest snows are forecast. Hope he dry slots.

well theres no doubt now with cantore in boston thats where all the snow will get sucked into like a vaccum.lol

I hope Bostin is a bust.. Dang weather channel doesnt cover Long Island too well.

Also Verizon is annoyoing. I live in Western Suffolk and the local forecast is for the city! Unreal. I know I dont pay attention to it, but face it we all like to see the dramatic numbers on the screen..

jmanley32 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:When do we know of this move east is model issues or if it is real, as its happening or on future model runs?

Oh wow your in NR?! We are neighbors! I work at the guidance center on huguenot.

Yup! Used to be in Riverdale, also close to yonkers

nutleyblizzard wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Cantore’s always has to be where the biggest snows are forecast. Hope he dry slots.

The Cantore KOD.If it happens I will laugh!

I'm thinking 4-6 up here in Dutchess county. Any less I will be pissed and any more I will be thrilled.

There has NOT been a huge change in the NAM. The NAM is not as strong with the 500 mb low. Focus on the 500 mb. The overall placement is the same it looks like the Euro. I have no changes in thinking with anything. 12z NAM on left, 06Z right.Expect minor fluctuations to continue pic.twitter.com/VZBeClcbMN

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) January 28, 2022

aiannone wrote:

they need a few more guys up in Boston that's not enough

I like the Radar starting to fill in slowly down over the Southeast and out in the Atlantic...

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?radar=1&wxstn=0&wxstnmode=tw

I think it's time to stop posting Crapola (K uchera) maps, Ace said it best, and it was a Frank rule until this storm. They're fun in banter but not the day before a storm. For one they are probably over inflated in most places and they make expectations which are already high sky high, and that's usually a bad thing.

Expect less and be happy with more if you get it. A good philosophy for life too btw.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So I guess NWS will be upping snow totals if warranted and issuing blizzard warnings if criteria might be met for the other upton areas during the storm? Which at that time seems pointless lol

if RB and Quietace line of thinking is correct, they will up the totals during the storm as warranted. We’ve seen it before with some of the big ones in the past.

Full disclosure. While Ray and I have very similar ideas of the overall storm and its evolution, especially in the Mid-levels (which I think have proven to be correct over the past 24-hours with the shifts in guidance), I think he believes in a bit of a further west and more expansive solution than I do at this point. Again I still think it will end up a bit further west than shown on guidance, with a more coherent surface low, but I think we differ in that I think that there will be a drastic cut-off away from coastal locations and I-95 in the metro area.

lglickman1 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:When do we know of this move east is model issues or if it is real, as its happening or on future model runs?

Oh wow your in NR?! We are neighbors! I work at the guidance center on huguenot.

Yup! Used to be in Riverdale, also close to yonkers

I am literally like 10 min from riverdale if that driving. On McLean Ave towards downtown but in the irish section.

The RAP is nice. Never used it before, though, so no idea of its performance history, anecdotally or otherwise lol

Quietace wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So I guess NWS will be upping snow totals if warranted and issuing blizzard warnings if criteria might be met for the other upton areas during the storm? Which at that time seems pointless lol

if RB and Quietace line of thinking is correct, they will up the totals during the storm as warranted. We’ve seen it before with some of the big ones in the past.

Full disclosure. While Ray and I have very similar ideas of the overall storm and its evolution, especially in the Mid-levels (which I think have proven to be correct over the past 24-hours with the shifts in guidance), I think he believes in a bit of a further west and more expansive solution than I do at this point. Again I still think it will end up a bit further west than shown on guidance, with a more coherent surface low, but I think we differ in that I think that there will be a drastic cut-off away from coastal locations and I-95 in the metro area.

What do you think about ratios N and W. Is 15:1 reasonable?

UKIE is west and amped.

rb924119 wrote:The RAP is nice. Never used it before, though, so no idea of its performance history, anecdotally or otherwise lol

where do you find the RAP?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The RAP is nice. Never used it before, though, so no idea of its performance history, anecdotally or otherwise lol

where do you find the RAP?

Pivotal Weather

CMC is a substantial shift east almost takes city out of 6 inches and LI sees up to 12 or so. Wish I could say throw it out but the trend at 12z has been less snowfall from NYC west, not cool. ray i really hope you are right with nowcasting, reel this baby in.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The RAP is nice. Never used it before, though, so no idea of its performance history, anecdotally or otherwise lol

where do you find the RAP?

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/#

jmanley32 wrote:CMC is a substantial shift east almost takes city out of 6 inches and LI sees up to 12 or so. Wish I could say throw it out but the trend at 12z has been less snowfall from NYC west, not cool. ray i really hope you are right with nowcasting, reel this baby in.

CMC chased convection again and created the double barrel low. The eastern low robbed the moisture from the western low. WE TOSS!

My opinion on ratios, look at the 850 temp and surface temp, as long as there is not any funky stuff going on at the 700 mb range with some warm air intrusion. In the case of this storm, the depth of the cold air thru the layers will hold. Surface temps in the teens , I am looking for at least amn 18 to 20 ratio. This would specifically be NW of the storm over NNJ.