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JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

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JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Empty Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

Post by LauraLeighDawn Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:38 pm

State of Emergency starts at 5:00 for NJ

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:45 pm

12z HREF Mean Snowfall. Was told by a met friend to use this in nowcast situations.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 27210210

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_001h_prob02&sector=ne&fbclid=IwAR0JlLjV3CwfMu7ln_hO7dI4C9pX91q0tqHqTJ_0VIkjDG09yUlqaBI_tzw
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Post by mmanisca Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:47 pm

aiannone wrote:12z HREF Mean Snowfall. Was told by a met friend to use this in nowcast situations.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 27210210

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_001h_prob02&sector=ne&fbclid=IwAR0JlLjV3CwfMu7ln_hO7dI4C9pX91q0tqHqTJ_0VIkjDG09yUlqaBI_tzw


Thats 10:1?
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:48 pm

WeatherBob wrote:I might have an “outlier opinion” but specifically with NNJ , SE NY - NW of NYC,  no change here.  Still thinking at least 18 to 1 ratio, with a qpf of around .5.  Still see me in that 6 to 10 range.  See how thins developes with the qpf field.

Bob I said this in my wx blog post last night. Great minds think alike!

I trust in Rb, Ace, Heehaw, Frank, Sroc, Alex with this and I see how after looking at the 500 map that the models maybe, I am not model expert so I hand this over to the degree pro's like you, Ace and Rb, that models are, and we have seen this so many times before with these potent, dynamic models overcorrect east due to eh latent heat and vorticity it picks up on out over the hot atlantic, which in itself maybe causing issues with the SLP placement. It thus drags the entire system out with it as we see. I am just thinking aloud and see Rb's posts which I am going to say are in along the simple lines I speak.

And what I say this morning - ticks E/SE and then they'll come back correct back west. If I was a betting man I'd say where the models were between the 0Z and 6Z runs is where the track will be maybe a tick further west. Time will tell.

Nowcasting time, real observations and from the looks it looks to be a deeper trough and the northern energy looks to be better oriented.

Back to teaching if I can peel myself away from this computer, then off to a wake after school so I am checking in sporadically (every 10-15 minutes LOL!)

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:48 pm

mmanisca wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z HREF Mean Snowfall. Was told by a met friend to use this in nowcast situations.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 27210210

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_001h_prob02&sector=ne&fbclid=IwAR0JlLjV3CwfMu7ln_hO7dI4C9pX91q0tqHqTJ_0VIkjDG09yUlqaBI_tzw


Thats 10:1?

Yes

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:52 pm

LauraLeighDawn wrote:State of Emergency starts at 5:00 for NJ

thank you and what the heck does this mean anymore?? He calls these like every storm.
Use to be off the roads, impound vehicles and ticket if caught on teh roads, everything closes down, OEM is enacted etc etc.

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Post by phil155 Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:53 pm

Do the models for the most part use a 10:1 ratio or do they take into account the higher ratio?

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Post by mmanisca Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:55 pm

Dew point temperature spread getting smaller out here in Suffolk. Moistening up!
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:58 pm

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Image.png.3a36b3e08c34b233b148b333722fa2f2

This is a nice look 18-19F and some very good snow growth about 3-5" by 6AM
Maps compliments of CCB @33nRain

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:02 pm

Surface low pressure.  Where does it want to follow.  Isobars point north, so it looks like it gets to just off the coast of Hatteras.  More often than not SLP tucked at Cape Hatteras is a good locale for the I95. But it's after that as rapid consolidation occurs is what is really important.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Surfac23

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:05 pm

The 500mb trough.  A hair positive but going neutral with a broad base. Yet another important piece.  

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 500mbt10

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:09 pm

phil155 wrote:Do the models for the most part use a 10:1 ratio or do they take into account the higher ratio?

10:1
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Post by WeatherBob Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:10 pm

I just don’t see that upper low closing off quick enough and intense enough. I think getting QPF of .5 to .75 is very generous for around NYC and West and NW from there. Based on my unofficial ratios yields 8 to 12 inches at a very doable 15 to 1 ratio. A little less QPF, 6 to 10. Where do I sign up!

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Something tells me models overcorrected east. It's just a feeling based off current observations and I have confidence in what Ray is saying as well. It may not mean much to western areas, because I truly think sinking air may hurt them, but the coastal areas (Shore to LI) should still expect a Godzilla from this. My updated snow map will come out soon-ish.

Just a quick thought from a pro met - Modeling tends to do that - it does tend to pull the center east though in real life it CAN happen though it’s not always likely because if you have intense convection that will release heat into the atmosphere causing the ridge to grow stronger pushing the low a bit west.

Hence Rb's point!

IN RAY, ACE, ROBERTO (AKA BOB) WE TRUST!!!!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:12 pm

We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by phil155 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:12 pm

aiannone wrote:
phil155 wrote:Do the models for the most part use a 10:1 ratio or do they take into account the higher ratio?

10:1


Thanks, I appreciate it

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:15 pm

Starting to really get that baroclinic leaf appearance overall…..

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Da673f10

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:Starting to really get that baroclinic leaf appearance overall…..

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Da673f10

I can't tell between this and the 500 vorticity maps but this looks to be a bit deeper at this stage? AH who cares its all starting to come together

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:17 pm

rb924119 wrote:We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..

Is that still a bit early in your calculations? Or about right versus the models?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:20 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Starting to really get that baroclinic leaf appearance overall…..

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Da673f10

I can't tell between this and the 500 vorticity maps but this looks to be a bit deeper at this stage? AH who cares its all starting to come together

Not sure if it’s necessarily deeper, but I’d argue it’s certainly more mature versus modeling for the same time.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:21 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..

Is that still a bit early in your calculations? Or about right versus the models?

Significantly early, in my opinion.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..

Is that still a bit early in your calculations? Or about right versus the models?

Significantly early, in my opinion.

Let's GOOOOOO THEN!!!

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by phil155 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:26 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..

Is that still a bit early in your calculations? Or about right versus the models?

Significantly early, in my opinion.

Let's GOOOOOO THEN!!!

Would this make a more NW track more likely and thus likely higher snow totals into NJ and the I95

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:29 pm

This is all so frustrating, at this point I am in rays and mugs camp, not looking at anymore models only what you guys post. So far i am not hearing great things for NYC area but hopefully we can get well more than 6 inches.
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:33 pm

18z HRRR
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Snku_a20

10:1
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 18 Sn10_a52
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