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February 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:43 am

17° and the snow pack lives on. 33 straight days and counting.

It will be interesting to see if this snow, ice, and sleet encrusted block of snow and ice can make it through 3-4 days of highs in the 40's. My money is on the snow pack.
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Post by dkodgis Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:02 am

15 here. Trees still coated. Driveway did clear up yesterday. Anywhere there be snow, like moon rick and slippery. Still snow on the ground, like 4 inches thick


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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:47 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:17° and the snow pack lives on. 33 straight days and counting.

It will be interesting to see if this snow, ice, and sleet encrusted block of snow and ice can make it through 3-4 days of highs in the 40's. My money is on the snow pack.

30 degrees, sunny calm winds.

Well, here is the way I see it CP.Even though we get into the 40's today. Thursday and Friday, each night we drop below freezing.Saturday is the mildest day, but it says cloudy , so the sun won't do much harm.Maybe an inch or two of snow if the GFS pans out then back in the deep freeze again.If we can stay cold and have a refresher snowstorm, we may get to the end of February.

General F. Lake, 22nd Snowpack Defense Division
Reporting from the Lower Hudson Valley front defending the snowpack.


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Post by dkodgis Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:14 pm

The ice a week later finally melted off the trees today. Ice pack is about four inches. It softened today
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 10, 2022 1:44 pm

Up to 51 degrees today. 2" of rain beginning of month was pretty telling.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 10, 2022 4:51 pm

51* today
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:00 pm

Hit 53* today, the yard is a soggy mess!

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 10, 2022 5:16 pm

45. Ice pack reduced to a couple inches. I think the next two days hurt it bad but some snow should make it
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:05 pm

low of 26* this morning.

Chilly few days as as this arctic front sweeps through - from Anthony Siciliano

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 4 FLVaUIGXIAkm2YQ?format=png&name=medium




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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:48 pm

57 degrees in February. Many times warm temps precede snow in February.

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Post by dkodgis Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:47 pm

Heehaw, I like the way you think. 54 now. Snow pack is still there. I have high hopes it will still be there Sunday. A coating to a few inches would be nice. To paraphrase your man, my man, our man (CP), winter is as it should be in the valley. We will see for how long


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Post by dkodgis Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:51 pm

It would be nice to have the missing stanzas link about Othelia the groundhog so I could reminisce  

CP, ¿dónde está el hilo de discusión?
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 12, 2022 5:47 am

heehaw453 wrote:57 degrees in February.  Many times warm temps precede snow in February.

33 degrees and clear.
Good observation Heehaw.I have seen this many times over the years, a torch for a few days then a week later a good snowstorm.Classic example of that was the March 1888 Blizzard.People were sunning themselves in Central Park a few days before it hit.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:23 pm

54 currently. My over/under tomorrow IMBY is 2". The upper level jet is giving me some optimism.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:29 pm

63*amd Sunny. Trying to make lemonade out of lemons. Ironically my sons soccer team had an outdoor scrimmage against NYSC scheduled for today and it’s spring weather. Not going to lie, it feels amazing in the sun. We aren’t in control so go out and find the good in every day, because lord knows there is a lot of evil in the world today.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by Grselig Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:63*amd Sunny.  Trying to make lemonade out of lemons. Ironically my sons soccer team had an outdoor scrimmage against NYSC scheduled for today and it’s spring weather.  Not going to lie, it feels amazing in the sun. We aren’t in control so go out and find the good in every day, because lord knows there is a lot of evil in the world today.  

55 in Wayne with some clouds and a bit of wind. I hate say it, but feels very nice. Hoping for some Super Bowl mood flakes.

People can be nasty. Walking at the mall parking lot with my son, cars just speed up instead of letting us walk. Ugliness spreads ugliness, but so can niceness, courtesy and respect.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:52 pm

50 and mostly cloudy. The snowpack survived this week but there are a few bare spots now in the usual areasbut still 80% coverage. Amazing how 5 inches of solid ice and snow held up to the onslaught of sun and 50 for four days. A new 5 inches of powder would not have lasted a day.

So the streak lives but on life support. 37 straight days and counting.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:00 pm

dkodgis wrote:It would be nice to have the missing stanzas link about Othelia the groundhog so I could reminisce   

CP, ¿dónde está el hilo de discusión?

Damian, they are in the OTI sub forum with a separate thread dedicated to Orange Othelia.

As far as I know no historians have found anything yet pertinent to this year’s predictions for spring maybe in the next couple of weeks they will uncover some thing.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:03 pm

NAM is starting to get aggressive on the snow. It's not alone either. It's picking up on that jet streak enhancement which IMO is going to create robust precip along and NW of the I-95. It may surprise some folks including me if this jet can create the kind of lift that is being shown.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:16 pm

The H7 frontogenesis (purple lines) is where I think surprises may be in store.  This one may trend right into game time.

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 4 Fronto13

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:32 pm

Starting to look like a decent little snowfall event tomorrow. Look for snow to begin after Midnight and last until early afternoon tomorrow (will end earlier N&W). As Heehaw has pointed out, the heaviest snowfall will occur where there’s the greatest lift and I expect that to be across central and parts of northern NJ into the City and west Long Island. Could be a 3-6” type of event but probably more like 3-4” and a little less along the shore and N&W.

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 4 Bca2df10



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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:57 pm

The NAM has increased the n/s ULL (Michigan) strength especially on 18z.  This is causing the better jet streak and lift.  If that holds on on 00Z then it's probably onto something. If not, then it was just being the NAM.

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 4 Nam215

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:05 pm

HRDPS

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 4 Hrdps_10

This is getting interesting. Mesos have been all over since HRRR and NAMs jumped on it last night.
One thing, the warmer ground near the coast is and on LI is going to inhibit and keep the snowfall accumulations down UNLESS you get under the heaviest axis of banding aka frontgenesis.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:29 pm

amugs wrote:HRDPS

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 4 Hrdps_10

This is getting interesting. Mesos have been all over since HRRR and NAMs jumped on it last night.
One thing, the warmer ground near the coast is and on LI is going to inhibit and keep the snowfall accumulations down UNLESS you get under the heaviest axis of banding aka frontgenesis.

I’m not so sure about that warm ground theory. It was sunny and breezy and dry today. The ground dried out pretty well. By the time the precip moves into LI at least avg temp is upper twenties to thirty. I think temps will plummet pretty quick and I don’t think the ground will retain that much heat. Should be clear for awhile helping radiative cooling. We’ll see.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:56 pm

I'm at 42.6/29.  

mid-levels are crashing.  Surface is catching up.  Going to enjoy every flake.

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