February 2022 Obs & Discussions

amugs wrote:HRDPS



This is getting interesting. Mesos have been all over since HRRR and NAMs jumped on it last night.
One thing, the warmer ground near the coast is and on LI is going to inhibit and keep the snowfall accumulations down UNLESS you get under the heaviest axis of banding aka frontgenesis.

I’m not so sure about that warm ground theory. It was sunny and breezy and dry today. The ground dried out pretty well. By the time the precip moves into LI at least avg temp is upper twenties to thirty. I think temps will plummet pretty quick and I don’t think the ground will retain that much heat. Should be clear for awhile helping radiative cooling. We’ll see.

I'm at 42.6/29.  

mid-levels are crashing.  Surface is catching up.  Going to enjoy every flake.

38.5/25.2 I want to believe the HRRR, I truly do.

Here comes the arctic front and the snow!

Moderate to heavy snow. 31.2/30.7 1/2" snow OTG

Over/under 2" looks very doable.

Moderate snow here in NYC

Temperature is now 34

Sticking to colder surfaces but that should change soon

30.3/30 moderate snow about 1" OTG.

27 degrees with moderate snow. Radar looks much further west than expected and pretty healthy atm.

WWA in orange, rockland and westchester for 2-3 inches. From the looks of the current radar that looks very doable. Probably close to an inch already.

Parts of Lehigh Valley reporting 3"+ already.  H7 frontogenesis supports this.

Down to 33 here in Brooklyn 

Several more hours of snow to go

Fronto occurred further west than modeled.  Berks, Lehigh, Carbon, Sussex counties did very well with the mesoscale stuff.  NWS going to be doing catch up with this one.

27° moderate snow continues. Haven't officially gone out to measure yet and still had a couple inches otg so will have to venture out soon to see how much new snow has fallen on the board. Looks like it may be 2+ inches already but since I was expecting 0 still wondering if my eyes deceive me.

Love surprises like this.

Snow just started here at exit 80 of the GSP. Snow was originally modeled
To start late last night, and the delayed start probably means we won’t overperform down here in terms of accumulations. Maybe 1-2” is a safe call. But futurecast does show snow sticking around here most of the day, and a full day of watching snowfall would be awesome.

Very happy that precip expanded n and w, but you can’t say I’m surprised! Lol. I am surprised that the heavier to snow is to my west while the storm is still to my east. That doesn’t tend to happen to often.

32* with light to occasionally moderate snow here. Ground is coated but more traveled pavements just wet.

Very pretty postcard snow in Central NJ…about an inch on the ground. Dogs were thrilled!

Another win for the HRRR



It was further west than any model throughout the day yesterday 

I woke up to snow!  1.25” on the ground so far and still snowing.  Winter Weather Advisory here runs till 1 pm.

About 2". Got what I expected. Reports out of Reading PA of over 5". The initial meso band set up further west. There was little doubt that large surprises would be had with this system just a matter of where.

28* looks like 3” at least here, beautiful picture postcard morning

Light snow in Deer Park . 31 degrees . I have about an inch on the ground. Roads just wet.

Somewhere along the way, this became an afternoon storm for the Jersey Shore. Nothing has stuck yet, but radar and app now say decent snow thru 2-3 pm. Won't accumulate much more than inch or 2, but if it happens, that will make this Sunday pretty Super for me.

30*. Light to moderate snow falling about an inch. Starting to accumulate on side roads.

3" here, no accumulation on the roadways, just a little accumulation on the driveway. Great little overperformer!

2.5" measured on the grass and deck. Warmer surfaces about 1". might be able to squeeze 3" based HRRR.

Not quite 2". Warm surfaces 0-1".

Lovely surprise.