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February 2022 Obs & Discussions

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SoulSingMG
dsix85
rb924119
hyde345
jmanley32
frank 638
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essexcountypete
mmanisca
Coachgriff
Snow88
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CPcantmeasuresnow
brownie
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dkodgis
sroc4
SENJsnowman
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nutleyblizzard
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heehaw453
phil155
weatherwatchermom
Radz
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amugs
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:29 pm

amugs wrote:HRDPS

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Hrdps_10

This is getting interesting. Mesos have been all over since HRRR and NAMs jumped on it last night.
One thing, the warmer ground near the coast is and on LI is going to inhibit and keep the snowfall accumulations down UNLESS you get under the heaviest axis of banding aka frontgenesis.

I’m not so sure about that warm ground theory. It was sunny and breezy and dry today. The ground dried out pretty well. By the time the precip moves into LI at least avg temp is upper twenties to thirty. I think temps will plummet pretty quick and I don’t think the ground will retain that much heat. Should be clear for awhile helping radiative cooling. We’ll see.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:56 pm

I'm at 42.6/29.  

mid-levels are crashing.  Surface is catching up.  Going to enjoy every flake.

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 850s29

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:44 pm

38.5/25.2 I want to believe the HRRR, I truly do.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 12, 2022 10:51 pm

Here comes the arctic front and the snow!

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 FLckRLOXIAEERWi?format=jpg&name=large

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 13, 2022 3:50 am

Moderate to heavy snow. 31.2/30.7 1/2" snow OTG

Over/under 2" looks very doable.

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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:21 am

Moderate snow here in NYC

Temperature is now 34

Sticking to colder surfaces but that should change soon

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:24 am

30.3/30 moderate snow about 1" OTG.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:27 am

27 degrees with moderate snow. Radar looks much further west than expected and pretty healthy atm.

WWA in orange, rockland and westchester for 2-3 inches. From the looks of the current radar that looks very doable. Probably close to an inch already.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:46 am

Parts of Lehigh Valley reporting 3"+ already.  H7 frontogenesis supports this.

February 2022 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Fronto15

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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:49 am

Down to 33 here in Brooklyn 

Several more hours of snow to go
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:56 am

Fronto occurred further west than modeled.  Berks, Lehigh, Carbon, Sussex counties did very well with the mesoscale stuff.  NWS going to be doing catch up with this one.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:05 am

27° moderate snow continues. Haven't officially gone out to measure yet and still had a couple inches otg so will have to venture out soon to see how much new snow has fallen on the board. Looks like it may be 2+ inches already but since I was expecting 0 still wondering if my eyes deceive me.

Love surprises like this.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:14 am

Snow just started here at exit 80 of the GSP. Snow was originally modeled
To start late last night, and the delayed start probably means we won’t overperform down here in terms of accumulations. Maybe 1-2” is a safe call. But futurecast does show snow sticking around here most of the day, and a full day of watching snowfall would be awesome.

Very happy that precip expanded n and w, but you can’t say I’m surprised! Lol. I am surprised that the heavier to snow is to my west while the storm is still to my east. That doesn’t tend to happen to often.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:24 am

32* with light to occasionally moderate snow here. Ground is coated but more traveled pavements just wet.
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Post by Coachgriff Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:29 am

Very pretty postcard snow in Central NJ…about an inch on the ground. Dogs were thrilled!
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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:45 am

Another win for the HRRR



It was further west than any model throughout the day yesterday 
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:55 am

27 degrees, light snow.Looks like over 4 inches OTG ATM.A pleasant surprise after NWS only had me for an inch all told.They did have the chance of snow up here for over a week now so i GIVE THEM THAT.
Every winter always has a nice surprise in store for everybody and this is ours up here in the HV in this snow starved winter.
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Post by brownie Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:58 am

I woke up to snow!  1.25” on the ground so far and still snowing.  Winter Weather Advisory here runs till 1 pm.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:10 am

About 2". Got what I expected. Reports out of Reading PA of over 5". The initial meso band set up further west. There was little doubt that large surprises would be had with this system just a matter of where.

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Post by Radz Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:21 am

28* looks like 3” at least here, beautiful picture postcard morning
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Post by mmanisca Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:22 am

Light snow in Deer Park . 31 degrees . I have about an inch on the ground. Roads just wet.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:24 am

Somewhere along the way, this became an afternoon storm for the Jersey Shore. Nothing has stuck yet, but radar and app now say decent snow thru 2-3 pm. Won't accumulate much more than inch or 2, but if it happens, that will make this Sunday pretty Super for me.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:41 am

30*. Light to moderate snow falling about an inch. Starting to accumulate on side roads.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 13, 2022 8:04 am

Still light snow here.Looks like a solid 4 inches here.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 13, 2022 8:29 am

3" here, no accumulation on the roadways, just a little accumulation on the driveway. Great little overperformer!

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 13, 2022 8:32 am

2.5" measured on the grass and deck. Warmer surfaces about 1". might be able to squeeze 3" based HRRR.

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Post by essexcountypete Sun Feb 13, 2022 8:41 am

Not quite 2". Warm surfaces 0-1".

Lovely surprise.
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