NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tropics

+20
sabamfa
frank 638
Cyanide02Z06
Frank_Wx
jtswife
Joe Snow
aiannone
phil155
billg315
Zhukov1945
tomsriversnowstorm
Radz
Dunnzoo
sroc4
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
dkodgis
jmanley32
Quietace
amugs
24 posters

Page 6 of 17 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11 ... 17  Next

Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by aiannone Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:36 pm

TD 10 is now Hermine.

TD 9 will likely be Ian tomorrow
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4523
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:42 pm

aiannone wrote:TD 10 is now Hermine.

TD 9 will likely be Ian tomorrow

Damn you TD10!!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7457
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 6 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  
Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  

So to answer your question, Jman, yes, it is the same period lol but that wasn’t a forecast, I just want to make that clear for sake of technicality lol I merely highlighting the similarity.

On second thought, is it too late to claim it as a preliminary forecast? Because it’s looking kinda good right now hahaha

In all seriousness, should I start paying actual attention to this? I’ve been so busy pursuing various “ventures”, shall we say, that I’ve not really followed this doldrum of a summer too closely, other than my two brief and incorrect hypotheses earlier in the season (which I do apologize for, btw).

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6080
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 30
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:TD 10 is now Hermine.

TD 9 will likely be Ian tomorrow

Damn you TD10!!
Well jeeze I called that into reality, I never thought it would happen. We now have big trouble, the US I mean.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by dkodgis Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:17 pm

I for one just seeded over and put hay on the damaged areas of the lawn from this summer's head. I would appreciate rain coming out of a few of these systems so I do not have to drag the hose around. A fellow can dream...
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1852
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by dkodgis Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:18 pm

It may be time to call CPCANTMEASURERAIN to get back on the board and start measuring any incoming.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1852
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by Joe Snow Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:23 pm

Well this is going to be interesting to me as I am renovating our southern home here in Sanford Florida, 40 mins north of the Mouse House. Looks like we get impacted on Wednesday - Thursday. Going to be fun, but I’ll make sure we are safe.
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 909
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 60
Location : Kings Park, NY

sroc4, jmanley32 and weatherwatchermom like this post

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:33 pm

I know all eyes are turned on TD-9 soon to be Ian, but like wth?!! Has this ever happened?

Tropics - Page 6 00031110

craziness. I understand it is post tropical and in the past b4 Sandy would have been a major storm but not classified a hurricane. I mean look how far it goes as a subtropical storm!!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Sep 24, 2022 5:30 pm

The images starting to come out of Nova Scotia are so sad...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11245523/Powerful-storm-Fiona-hits-Canadas-Nova-Scotia.html
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3257
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 58
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:54 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:The images starting to  come out of Nova Scotia are so sad...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11245523/Powerful-storm-Fiona-hits-Canadas-Nova-Scotia.html

Wow!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7457
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:55 pm

I wanted to do a write up with maps and things for Ian, but man Levi is just too good. Phenomenal breakdown on the details.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7457
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:57 am

If Euro is right then Ian sits and literally spins its self almost out over FL giving any3where from 12-30 inches rain, pretty sure that FL cannot even handle that much rain, this could be utterly devastating to tampa area.  My wife has family there and they are saying nothing to worry about hurricanes always hit FL with no major impacts....Did they forget Andrew and many others? Come to think of it one particular cousin would not recall Andrew, too young. I think they have got complacent too since they keep dodging bullets the past several years. In general FL residents seem to feel immune to hurricanes despite being in prime areas. I know a friend of mine said it's just a rainy day anything below a cat 3-4.

Tropics - Page 6 Ecmwf_18
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:49 am

Ian now proged to reach Cat 4 wow, FL has a full state of emergency already. Wonder if any will be impacts up this way. Models look to kick him way inland and to the west of us, but I believe bastardi said along with some others on here that he may climb the coast. Have not seen that in runs recently but runs for TC are so all over the place until we have a bonifide cane and even then they make up their own rules. I remember with Isiais sroc was full on that we were going to be in the rain and the strongest winds into CT, RI when in fact we got rain but the bulk stayed in PA and we got the wind side. So you never know. And of course we all remember last years disaster with what was only a remnant of Ida but tornados flood warnings, t-storms, that was one crazy night. At one point I have a scroll of list of alerts on my phone at one time, meaning there were at least 10, thats nuts.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by sroc4 Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:52 am

Jon still a huge spread between gfs and euro regarding landfall let alone what happens after. If you didn’t watch Levi Cowans video from last night I suggest you do. He covers just how much subtle nuance there is regarding track, and intensity in the next 3-4days let alone beyond.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7457
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by amugs Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:55 am

I'm riding the EURO like Seabiscuit. It has and is proven to have a much superior skill score for tropical systems in the 20/25 Latitude range. The GFS physics for latent heat release has not be on its level for years and has struggled with this. Levi's video is excellent. Time will tell.

Tropics - Page 6 FdgLuUiXoAIHZD2?format=jpg&name=large

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13745
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jtswife Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:28 am

I am sitting in Port Charlotte FL so very nervous about this thing. Looking so far like we will feel the brunt of this guy
jtswife
jtswife

Posts : 69
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-13
Location : Port Charlotte Florida, from long island

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by sroc4 Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:16 pm

jtswife wrote:I am sitting in Port Charlotte FL so very nervous about this thing. Looking so far like we will feel the brunt of this guy

Gfs coming back East today.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7457
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:35 pm

GFS has been coming back east for past 5 runs. Those Euro ensebles are interesting with the sharp shift back north or NW, that would just be devastating to slowly crawl the center of FL.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:37 pm

sroc4 wrote:Jon still a huge spread between gfs and euro regarding landfall let alone what happens after. If you didn’t watch Levi Cowans video from last night I suggest you do. He covers just how much subtle nuance there is regarding track, and intensity in the next 3-4days let alone beyond.  
I know, and yes I watched it, we gotta see how far east or west he goes, is go make a big diff. Hoping for FL to miss but doesn't look great, and if it misses FL he will hit someone, I don't think the US mises a direct hit unless he plays skirt around land.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:40 pm

amugs wrote:I'm riding the EURO like Seabiscuit. It has and is proven to have a much superior skill score for tropical systems in the 20/25 Latitude range. The GFS physics for latent heat release has not be on its level for years and has struggled with this. Levi's video is excellent. Time will tell.

Tropics - Page 6 FdgLuUiXoAIHZD2?format=jpg&name=large
Funny enough or usually worthless CMC is more on board with Euro than GFS. You arent the only one, Bastardi is too. If I wasn't working I would totally be in FL to track this, always wanted to go on a hurricane hunt, pretty stupid probably but heck. Snow storm too like Alex did, still can't believe he bumped into Cantore, that was great.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by amugs Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:22 pm

Euro sings the great Petty,
Won't Back Down!!

Tropics - Page 6 Fdht-f10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13745
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jtswife Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:03 pm

Damn, too close for my comfort
jtswife
jtswife

Posts : 69
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-13
Location : Port Charlotte Florida, from long island

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by dkodgis Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:05 pm

The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1852
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:24 pm

dkodgis wrote:The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too
Whats SJ? The Euro is beyond aweful 24 hrs starts impact full landfall and still riding up spine of FL after over 30 hrs, yikes. This will go down in hx even worse than Andrew possible on the flooding part at least I mean thats going to batter beaches on western cost to obliteration. I don't mean to sound dramatic, I think it is concerning and dramatic potential is high.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19094
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:25 pm

12Z Euro has it crawling up the FL coast, from about Sarasota on north. Going to cause a big problem! (Sorry, can't post link or pic, on phone at work.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4566
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 60
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tropics - Page 6 Empty Re: Tropics

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 17 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11 ... 17  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum