Tropics

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  

Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking

lol Hear here my friend.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  

Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking

lol  Hear here my friend.  

well actually most of the summer I did not even look to be honest pretty much not even since early in 2022 once snoe season was over. Been so boring. No wild t-storms nada. Okay enough banter, onto our Tropics tracking!

TD 10 is now Hermine.

TD 9 will likely be Ian tomorrow

aiannone wrote:TD 10 is now Hermine.

TD 9 will likely be Ian tomorrow

Damn you TD10!!

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  

Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  

So to answer your question, Jman, yes, it is the same period lol but that wasn’t a forecast, I just want to make that clear for sake of technicality lol I merely highlighting the similarity.

On second thought, is it too late to claim it as a preliminary forecast? Because it’s looking kinda good right now hahaha

In all seriousness, should I start paying actual attention to this? I’ve been so busy pursuing various “ventures”, shall we say, that I’ve not really followed this doldrum of a summer too closely, other than my two brief and incorrect hypotheses earlier in the season (which I do apologize for, btw).

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:TD 10 is now Hermine.

TD 9 will likely be Ian tomorrow

Damn you TD10!!

Well jeeze I called that into reality, I never thought it would happen. We now have big trouble, the US I mean.

I for one just seeded over and put hay on the damaged areas of the lawn from this summer's head. I would appreciate rain coming out of a few of these systems so I do not have to drag the hose around. A fellow can dream...

It may be time to call CPCANTMEASURERAIN to get back on the board and start measuring any incoming.

Well this is going to be interesting to me as I am renovating our southern home here in Sanford Florida, 40 mins north of the Mouse House. Looks like we get impacted on Wednesday - Thursday. Going to be fun, but I’ll make sure we are safe.

I know all eyes are turned on TD-9 soon to be Ian, but like wth?!! Has this ever happened?



craziness. I understand it is post tropical and in the past b4 Sandy would have been a major storm but not classified a hurricane. I mean look how far it goes as a subtropical storm!!

The images starting to come out of Nova Scotia are so sad...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11245523/Powerful-storm-Fiona-hits-Canadas-Nova-Scotia.html

weatherwatchermom wrote:The images starting to  come out of Nova Scotia are so sad...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11245523/Powerful-storm-Fiona-hits-Canadas-Nova-Scotia.html

Wow!

I wanted to do a write up with maps and things for Ian, but man Levi is just too good. Phenomenal breakdown on the details.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

If Euro is right then Ian sits and literally spins its self almost out over FL giving any3where from 12-30 inches rain, pretty sure that FL cannot even handle that much rain, this could be utterly devastating to tampa area.  My wife has family there and they are saying nothing to worry about hurricanes always hit FL with no major impacts....Did they forget Andrew and many others? Come to think of it one particular cousin would not recall Andrew, too young. I think they have got complacent too since they keep dodging bullets the past several years. In general FL residents seem to feel immune to hurricanes despite being in prime areas. I know a friend of mine said it's just a rainy day anything below a cat 3-4.

Ian now proged to reach Cat 4 wow, FL has a full state of emergency already. Wonder if any will be impacts up this way. Models look to kick him way inland and to the west of us, but I believe bastardi said along with some others on here that he may climb the coast. Have not seen that in runs recently but runs for TC are so all over the place until we have a bonifide cane and even then they make up their own rules. I remember with Isiais sroc was full on that we were going to be in the rain and the strongest winds into CT, RI when in fact we got rain but the bulk stayed in PA and we got the wind side. So you never know. And of course we all remember last years disaster with what was only a remnant of Ida but tornados flood warnings, t-storms, that was one crazy night. At one point I have a scroll of list of alerts on my phone at one time, meaning there were at least 10, thats nuts.

Jon still a huge spread between gfs and euro regarding landfall let alone what happens after. If you didn’t watch Levi Cowans video from last night I suggest you do. He covers just how much subtle nuance there is regarding track, and intensity in the next 3-4days let alone beyond.

I'm riding the EURO like Seabiscuit. It has and is proven to have a much superior skill score for tropical systems in the 20/25 Latitude range. The GFS physics for latent heat release has not be on its level for years and has struggled with this. Levi's video is excellent. Time will tell.

I am sitting in Port Charlotte FL so very nervous about this thing. Looking so far like we will feel the brunt of this guy

jtswife wrote:I am sitting in Port Charlotte FL so very nervous about this thing. Looking so far like we will feel the brunt of this guy

Gfs coming back East today.

GFS has been coming back east for past 5 runs. Those Euro ensebles are interesting with the sharp shift back north or NW, that would just be devastating to slowly crawl the center of FL.

sroc4 wrote:Jon still a huge spread between gfs and euro regarding landfall let alone what happens after. If you didn’t watch Levi Cowans video from last night I suggest you do. He covers just how much subtle nuance there is regarding track, and intensity in the next 3-4days let alone beyond.  

I know, and yes I watched it, we gotta see how far east or west he goes, is go make a big diff. Hoping for FL to miss but doesn't look great, and if it misses FL he will hit someone, I don't think the US mises a direct hit unless he plays skirt around land.

amugs wrote:I'm riding the EURO like Seabiscuit. It has and is proven to have a much superior skill score for tropical systems in the 20/25 Latitude range. The GFS physics for latent heat release has not be on its level for years and has struggled with this. Levi's video is excellent. Time will tell.

Funny enough or usually worthless CMC is more on board with Euro than GFS. You arent the only one, Bastardi is too. If I wasn't working I would totally be in FL to track this, always wanted to go on a hurricane hunt, pretty stupid probably but heck. Snow storm too like Alex did, still can't believe he bumped into Cantore, that was great.

Euro sings the great Petty,
Won't Back Down!!

Damn, too close for my comfort

The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too

dkodgis wrote:The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too

Whats SJ? The Euro is beyond aweful 24 hrs starts impact full landfall and still riding up spine of FL after over 30 hrs, yikes. This will go down in hx even worse than Andrew possible on the flooding part at least I mean thats going to batter beaches on western cost to obliteration. I don't mean to sound dramatic, I think it is concerning and dramatic potential is high.

12Z Euro has it crawling up the FL coast, from about Sarasota on north. Going to cause a big problem! (Sorry, can't post link or pic, on phone at work.