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Tropics

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Post by amugs Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:22 pm

NG, wth is with this Grid, it's a CAT 1 for goodness sake and they're are in hcane ally!!


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Post by amugs Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:08 pm

Wow!!

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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:33 pm

going to have to keep an eye on this trop wave to spin up into something as it makes its way into the Carribean.  Then it could get pulled up into the GOM and become a problem. Long way for that though.

Tropics - Page 5 Future10

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:32 pm

WHOA - both big boys have this and almost identical lock step 10 days out of course but Michael Repeat??

Tropics - Page 5 FdDcjnhXoAAsvX1?format=jpg&name=small

Tropics - Page 5 FdDcjnkX0AUzLlN?format=jpg&name=small

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:29 pm

That escalated fast

Tropics - Page 5 FdG3oU9WIAMzLRe?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:40 pm

amugs wrote:That escalated fast

Tropics - Page 5 FdG3oU9WIAMzLRe?format=png&name=900x900

Yup and if models hold what they are showing cat 5 into panhandle, would be awful. Is there any chance this makes a EC hit? It is 10 days out and isn't this the storm RB said had a sandy like setup the other day? Some runs show it doing similar to Ida and bringing us some crazy ran and wind on the eastern side. Of course not hurricane force but still enough to cause some disruption. Will have watch this one for sure. Looks like Bermuda will escape a direct hit from Fiona but wow the NHC has her staying a cat 3+ way far north into Atlantic, crazy.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:That escalated fast

Tropics - Page 5 FdG3oU9WIAMzLRe?format=png&name=900x900

Yup and if models hold what they are showing cat 5 into panhandle, would be awful.  Is there any chance this makes a EC hit? It is 10 days out and isn't this the storm RB said had a sandy like setup the other day? Some runs show it doing similar to Ida and bringing us some crazy ran and wind on the eastern side. Of course not hurricane force but still enough to cause some disruption.  Will have watch this one for sure. Looks like Bermuda will escape a direct hit from Fiona but wow the NHC has her staying a cat 3+ way far north into Atlantic, crazy.

Other than a high probability of it becoming a tropical system soon the track beyond that is far from certain. Going to have to see where exactly the center of circulation develops along the tropical wave. Then models will start to develop a track. If I have some time I may try and throw some images up this week with some thoughts on all of it.

Regarding Fiona she phases with the fairly deep trough that picks her up injecting energy into the system which could drop her pressure as it does so making her stronger after weakening only slightly it appears. This will also be her transition from a warm core tropical system to a cold core subtropical system, the same way Sandy did as she got drawn back into the NJ coast. I believe the NHC now continues to classify the system using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale even after subtropical transition after alm the debacle over Sandy and wether she was still a hurricane because of becoming “cold core” after it phased with the trough.

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Post by amugs Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:00 pm

Tropics - Page 5 FdMzskRXEAEky6V?format=jpg&name=small

Tropics - Page 5 FdM1EVsX0AMk9xj?format=jpg&name=small

Charlie 2.0??

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:48 am

This would help mitigate the drought

CMC would be a strong Nor for sure!!


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Post by amugs Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:05 pm

REALLY??? Greenland may have a TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY on its western shores??

Tropics - Page 5 FdRuc2zWIAAyj3P?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:42 pm

Great thread!!



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Post by amugs Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:22 am

Tropics - Page 5 Fduyrb10

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:45 am

Tropics - Page 5 FdVojnvXkAIgzcM?format=jpg&name=small

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:51 am

My morning take - this will rake the keys then the SW Gulf Coast of Fla by say Marco Island/Naples and cross over and exit up around Vero Beach then rememerge over the Atlantic. Fiona's massive phase hybrid aspect and heat release is going to shunt the pattern from a progressive flow to a Meridional and cause the ridge out west to sharpen up an dteh trough that will swing down next week to sharpen as well as pump the NATL ridge. These mechanisms will allow this Tropical Cyclone to ride the eastern Seaboard making two landfall maybe 3 depending on its speed and strength. OBX region as a Hurricane Cat 1/2 and LI to Cape Cod as strong Tropical Storm/ Minimal Hcane. Not wishcasting but recognizing pattern development and what is at play as we move forward.
Fiona is going to have a big say for the Hurricane's path and we won't know for a coupleof days what that maybe but the looks now are showing what I explain above.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:02 am

Well hello 00z Euro 192 h8rs out but those ensembles are a tad concerning.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:56 am

Hermine could get good

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:09 am

sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 5 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:50 pm

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 5 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

For sure Mugs. Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 5 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  
Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 5 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  
Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri. The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:17 pm

You can start to see the prev naked low level center starting to creep under the convection because the Northerly to Northeasterly shear is starting to let up as Fiona conts to gain latitude.  It wont be long before we have Hermine

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 5 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  
Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  
Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:You can start to see the prev naked low level center starting to creep under the convection because the Northerly to Northeasterly shear is starting to let up as Fiona conts to gain latitude.  It wont be long before we have Hermine

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis
Yeah looks decent and in a good part to really fire up. I would not be surprised to see a major sooner than just at the FL coast. And this might be a monster for FL, for their sake I hope not.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 5 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  
Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  
Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking

lol Hear here my friend.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:22 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Hermine could get good

JB said Major into SW Fla this morning a
and then up/traverse the coast making 3 landfalls - dam he may be on it:

Tropics - Page 5 145524_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

For sure Mugs.  Pattern is such that we have a decent shot of getting some sort of effect from him.  
Didn't we just have a Hermine like last year? If we somehow get another storm named before him then she would be a "I" storm, no good from a hx perspective. Either way I agree could get interesting, that doesn't look good for FL. Cat 3 into just south of tampa, my family is there ugg. Cat 1-2 they said is a ordinary day, 3+ not so good.

Was this the timeframe the pattern was similar to Sandy that Rb posted a week back or so?

Last years H storm was Henri.  The map Ray posted was the GFS at hr 384, 16days out, from the 15th.  
Right right, thanks. I could have looked it up but I am working. Lol, when weather comes up we all arise from the lurking

lol  Hear here my friend.  
well actually most of the summer I did not even look to be honest pretty much not even since early in 2022 once snoe season was over. Been so boring. No wild t-storms nada. Okay enough banter, onto our Tropics tracking!
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