Tropics

What I tell ya?? I said between Ft Myers and Naples and maybe off by about 25 miles N maybe 50 landfall. We'll see but a Major now, CAT 3 or 4 = REALLY BAD!!

Ok, folks, I decided to cut a video discussion for you guys instead of typing it up - it's just easier lol besides, I think you guys enjoy them I'll post it in the morning (later this morning at this point haha) because the video needs time to buffer. That said, if you want the cliff notes version and want to know my predicted track without sitting through the video, please see below As usual, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post them and I will do my best to answer them! Thank you all for watching and/or reading, and my video will be posted later this morning!!


**All of my analysis was based on 12z data from the 25th, and contains no later information*




EDIT:

My video ended up buffering a lot faster than I was expecting, so without further delay, here's the link if you want to watch:



It's 25 minutes long, so maybe watch it while you sip your morning coffee lol One thing that I did forget to mention is that the latent heat release from the storm itself will also feed into building the ridging southwestward in the Atlantic and also help to further insulate it from the already largely nonexistent effects of the departing trough over the eastern CONUS. Other than that, I think that I hit all of my intended points haha I hope that you all enjoy it, and again, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post them!

Hopefully I don't have to issue any updates to this, but if I do, I'll let you know Thanks again for watching and/or any feedback!

[quote="rb924119"]Ok, folks, I decided to cut a video discussion for you guys instead of typing it up - it's just easier lol besides, I think you guys enjoy them I'll post it in the morning (later this morning at this point haha) because the video needs time to buffer. That said, if you want the cliff notes version and want to know my predicted track without sitting through the video, please see below As usual, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post them and I wi

Sympnoctic what??? Lol watching at 5 am ..can't sleep...you had me until the end. That big word got me.  Don't know how to spell it to look it up  Lol otherwise being non technical..I understand everything..great explaining! Great video! But scared for those who will be effected by this! My brother just bought a house in Palm Bay and moved down in June. relieved this storm will not be a direct hit for him..

I personally think it’s a landfall between Tampa and Fort Meyers +/- 15-20miles.

Fwiw latest euro had Ian at 990 by 8am and GFS down to 994. He’s already at 983 with a new reading coming soon.

Looks like the GFS and EURO last night were in close agreement on where Ian tracks and what he does thereafter. Would be a high impact storm for western florida due to the 'stalling' nature of the storm. NAM still runs him straight through north-central Florida.

My brother is in Cape Coral (just north of Ft. Myers) and was ready last week. All he has to do is put up the hurricane shutters if it looks like he will need them. He is far enough inland he shouldn't have an issue with the surge, and his house is on a knoll so hopefully no rainfall flooding issues. Hopefully everyone in Tampa Bay is getting the heck out! The fact that it is such a slow mover is bad for them but I think better for us, we may not see much in the way of remnants.

Aaannnddd the 06z euro is west. Lol. Humbling hobby

sroc4 wrote:I personally think it’s a landfall between Tampa and Fort Meyers +/- 15-20miles.

I concur with this my man. 6z Euro can be a hiccup. Let's see what 12 Z says.

I am 84 miles from Tampa on a canal. I am actually closer to Northport than downtown Port Charlotte. Looks like I am screwed. Trust you guys reporting.

eyewall structure really starting to tighten up.

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

MAJOR shift east on 12z GFS. Not good news for the Tampa area. I'd get out of there fast.

GFS has clearly trended deeper and stronger with the mean trough to the north hence why the 12z seems to turn east on approach.

Looks like it’s now down to ~977mb with 80kt winds (90 mph) basis latest recon.

Holy

jtswife wrote:I am 84 miles from Tampa on a canal. I am actually closer to Northport than downtown Port Charlotte. Looks like I am screwed. Trust you guys reporting.

are you in the zone to evacuate..It is such a wonderful thing to live on the water(we do and lived thru Sandy)..with that comes the risks of Mother Nature..I will have you and your family that all will be all right!!

Not a good look for tampa on the 18z tracks


12z EPS

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jtswife wrote:I am 84 miles from Tampa on a canal. I am actually closer to Northport than downtown Port Charlotte. Looks like I am screwed. Trust you guys reporting.

are you in the zone to evacuate..It is such a wonderful thing to live on the water(we do and lived thru Sandy)..with that comes the risks of Mother Nature..I will have you and your family that all will be all right!!

We are in Zone A but we are not right near the coast. The gulf is roughly 30 miles or so. But we are on a canal, so the water would have to come up 8ft or so. It would have to be awful storm surge to have that happen. So prepared for the worst hoping for the best. Thanks so much for your kind words. Hopefully it doesnt come over our heads

Eegatz!!!

ZOINKS!!!



I fully expected this, but seeing it adds another dimension, I don’t care who you are…….

That’s a 10mb drop in what; three hours??

Down to 965mb on the second pass….

rb924119 wrote:That’s a 10mb drop in what; three hours??

yikes, nws said this has not happened in 100 years for Tampa. If this happens as show there won't be much of Tampa bay left, I mean 48 hrs at least of cat 3 winds and 10 ft plus surge, I can't even imagine. If your down there get out, evacs for hillsbourough county which is 205,000 people. People likely arent even going to get out thats far to many people and traffic.

rb924119 wrote:Down to 965mb on the second pass….

MOG....sattelite is impressive, outer cloud bands are already hitting FL. You can see all the heavy convection wrapping in, this will be a cat 3 by or before morning if you ask me. maybe 4. No one is talking about poor cuba. they are going to get a direct hit too. Also noted that the windfield expanded greatly.

HOLY EURO = DESTRUCTION!!



JB knows his stuff, be on tjis since last week, Wed. Don't be surprised by the surprises!

Fwiw 18z euro is significantly east. Like 50-60 miles. Landfalls smack between Tampa and Fort Meyers. Wipers, maybe but the track has been almost due north for the past 6-8hrs.