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Tropics

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:38 am

Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral! Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?

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Post by dkodgis Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:39 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojidrZ8uFtA

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:49 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral!   Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?

Hey mom, my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:08 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral!   Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?

Hey mom,  my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.

Close friends of ours just moved to Lakewood Ranch which is in between Bradenton and Sarasota a month ago. My brother from another mother lives in Fort Meyers with his family. Both will have their hands full this week for sure.

"Tom and Michelle welcome to sunny Florida. Have you met Ian yet?" Funny but not funny.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:09 am

Looks like pressure still dropping. Looks like is now sub 950 and still over land.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:55 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral!   Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?

Hey mom,  my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.

Fingers crossed..this is all so heart breaking
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:56 am

sroc4 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral!   Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?

Hey mom,  my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.

Close friends of ours just moved to Lakewood Ranch which is in between Bradenton and Sarasota a month ago.  My brother from another mother lives in Fort Meyers with his family.  Both will have their hands full this week for sure.  

"Tom and Michelle welcome to sunny Florida.  Have you met Ian yet?"  Funny but not funny.  
oh boy ..fingers crossed for them all...so scary...
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Post by jtswife Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:05 am

It coming in right over my head!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:09 am

jtswife wrote:It coming in right over my head!!

Holy crap. Landfall may be to your north but still…

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:14 am

6z HMON is wild

Tropics - Page 10 Hmon_mslp_wind_09L_13

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:16 am

Strong agreement

Tropics - Page 10 Storm_09_ens

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:17 am

Tropics - Page 10 FdqWtIkXEAA8WDo?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:34 am



It's a tempest, natures fury and wrath will be unleashed. Take the chance as I said to my wife's aunt on Venice Beach when she bought there that this is a possibility. She poo pooed me. Now she is not happy. Never want to see it happen but it does.

NOTHING is stopping IAN now, absolutely nothing in his way, NO SHEAR, NO COOL waters but 90" OHC fuel to allow him to explode. HMON maybe onto his strength. One of the better HCANE models for this. South of Tampa looks to be ground zero. School at USF and Tampa U have been cancelled until Oct 3rd. hey ain't messing around.

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:37 am

This is just unreal, look at his eye over land!

Tropics - Page 10 FdqHpBkXkAETke0?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


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Post by dkodgis Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:41 am

The Keys are getting their linen ironed right now. I still remark this is slow-moving thus more and more rain
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:50 am

Tropics - Page 10 FdqnjCjWIAU0uq8?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2022 9:51 am

12Z is up - just S of Tampa

Tropics - Page 10 FdqbcnFWIAMkRy-?format=png&name=small

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:14 am

amugs wrote:This is just unreal, look at his eye over land!

Tropics - Page 10 FdqHpBkXkAETke0?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Mother of God...
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:46 am

Well see how the rest of the recon data turns out but there may have been a little weakening this am. But again it will likely be short lived. Also there seems to be a definite NNE motion, however a minor wobble is possible too

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:05 am

jtswife wrote:It coming in right over my head!!
I am so sorry this is happening stay safe...will have you and your family in my thoughts!!
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:11 am

sroc4 wrote:Well see how the rest of the recon data turns out but there may have been a little weakening this am.  But again it will likely be short lived.  Also there seems to be a definite NNE motion, however a minor wobble is possible too

Prob undergoing an EWRC which tends to temporarily weaken the peak winds followed by intensification

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:25 am

Storm Surge

Tropics - Page 10 Fdq_33hXoAEqTD6?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:54 am

Learn something new all the time!!


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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:28 pm

amugs wrote:Storm Surge

Tropics - Page 10 Fdq_33hXoAEqTD6?format=jpg&name=900x900


Cool interactive Storm surge map that can be used to know where you are based on the Cat hurricane incoming.  You can zoom in to individual streets etc.   Look at the top of the page. This is set at Cat 3 but you can change it

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-3/

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:30 pm

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/100939.shtml?inundation#contents

saw this..
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:37 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Storm Surge

Tropics - Page 10 Fdq_33hXoAEqTD6?format=jpg&name=900x900


Cool interactive Storm surge map that can be used to know where you are based on the Cat hurricane incoming.  You can zoom in to individual streets etc.   Look at the top of the page. This is set at Cat 3 but you can change it

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-3/

great minds...lol
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:39 pm

Hey I am going to post this..we live on the water..right before Sandy..someone said( I think it was our insurance agent) to take pictures and video of your whole house inside and out to have with you incase something happens. It was not the first thing on our minds..and thank goodness we did not need it..but just putting it out there...
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