Tropics

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:I never said he made it up, I asked where he got that information. I saw the statement the sheriff made which the governor later said "had not been confirmed". Nowhere did I see anyone say that the death toll may be in the thousands.

20 minutes ago:

https://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-ian-kills-hundreds-fort-122930890.html

I was pointing out that thousands are still unaccounted for.  Not necessarily that they are all dead.  For some perspective the red cross reported 117 dead from Sandy: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6220a1.htm

This storm had much higher surge for a much longer duration, much higher winds, and many more who did not leave.  Lets just hope and pray the numbers don't rise much more but I will remain pessimistic on this one.  Again Im hoping im proven wrong.

Also, the officials were saying they don't know how many residents evacuated, so until they are all accounted for, no one will know what the toll will be. People evacuated to so many places across the state, and probably still can't get back to their homes. No one should be saying or guestimating anything at this point...

Dunnzoo wrote:

Also, the officials were saying they don't know how many residents evacuated, so until they are all accounted for, no one will know what the toll will be. People evacuated to so many places across the state, and probably still can't get back to their homes. No one should be saying or guestimating anything at this point...

Good point. Undoubtably, it will be some time before the final numbers are in.

I was not intending AT ALL to be nihilistic but share what I researched from sources. Now if thise sources over shot well actually good, BUT what remains is that there is a looming fear of what will be on actually talking to freinds who are in LE in the area and people who live there. Based upon how many 911 rescue calls they were getting and could not help/get to in irslef is scary. Time will tell for sure, but this disaster is FAR from over sadly.

NEW VIDEO: More devastating scenes coming out of Arcadia, FL this morning.

This drone footage really shows how the record- breaking flooding of the Peace River just took over communities and even washed out bridges. Crazy to see how fast the water is rushing. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/PDliPsj7wz

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) October 1, 2022

Remember this it was in 2009 or later (?)they found the last remains of people when knocking down homes flooded by Katrina.

Tropics are alive and we may see two more out of the Carribean in the ne t couple of weeks.

And Ian's remains are going to develop a coastal low that may wreck havoc on the mud Atlantic coastal region up through NE.

amugs wrote:I was not intending AT ALL to be nihilistic but share what I researched from sources. Now if thise sources over shot well actually good, BUT what remains is that there is a looming fear of what will be on actually talking to freinds who are in LE in the area and  people who live there. Based upon how many 911 rescue calls they were getting and could not help/get to in irslef is scary. Time will tell for sure, but this disaster is FAR from over sadly.

NEW VIDEO: More devastating scenes coming out of Arcadia, FL this morning.

This drone footage really shows how the record- breaking flooding of the Peace River just took over communities and even washed out bridges. Crazy to see how fast the water is rushing. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/PDliPsj7wz

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) October 1, 2022

Remember this it was in 2009 or later (?)they found the last remains of people when knocking down homes flooded by Katrina.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article266675861.html

moleson wrote:

amugs wrote:I was not intending AT ALL to be nihilistic but share what I researched from sources. Now if thise sources over shot well actually good, BUT what remains is that there is a looming fear of what will be on actually talking to freinds who are in LE in the area and  people who live there. Based upon how many 911 rescue calls they were getting and could not help/get to in irslef is scary. Time will tell for sure, but this disaster is FAR from over sadly.

NEW VIDEO: More devastating scenes coming out of Arcadia, FL this morning.

This drone footage really shows how the record- breaking flooding of the Peace River just took over communities and even washed out bridges. Crazy to see how fast the water is rushing. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/PDliPsj7wz

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) October 1, 2022

Remember this it was in 2009 or later (?)they found the last remains of people when knocking down homes flooded by Katrina.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article266675861.html

How aweful, likely will go much higher, I am guessing they have only begun to scratch the surface.

moleson wrote:

amugs wrote:I was not intending AT ALL to be nihilistic but share what I researched from sources. Now if thise sources over shot well actually good, BUT what remains is that there is a looming fear of what will be on actually talking to freinds who are in LE in the area and  people who live there. Based upon how many 911 rescue calls they were getting and could not help/get to in irslef is scary. Time will tell for sure, but this disaster is FAR from over sadly.

NEW VIDEO: More devastating scenes coming out of Arcadia, FL this morning.

This drone footage really shows how the record- breaking flooding of the Peace River just took over communities and even washed out bridges. Crazy to see how fast the water is rushing. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/PDliPsj7wz

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) October 1, 2022

Remember this it was in 2009 or later (?)they found the last remains of people when knocking down homes flooded by Katrina.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article266675861.html

Sad even this many peopel have died from drowning so far.

Oct 1, 2022
Authorities say the death toll from Hurricane Ian has risen to at least 77 people and that number is expected to grow as rescue crews make their way through the damage - NBC

I read a while ago that in the 1935 hurricane in Florida, they were still finding bodies years later.

Mid October GOM Cane again?

Highest preliminary Hurricane #Ian wind gusts in Southwest Florida:

Cape Coral: 140 mph
Punta Gorda: 135 mph
Port Charlotte: 132 mph
Grove City: 128 mph
Captiva: 126 mph
Pelican Bay: 112 mph
SWFL Int'l Arpt: 110 mph
Labelle: 110 mph
Arcadia: 108 mph
Naples: 105 mph@WINKNews

— Matt Devitt (@MattDevittWINK) October 3, 2022

Death toll rising from reports on ground of up to 94 in Fla.

This is incredible - Ian and Charlie both made landfall at the exact same locations!!

Not quite yet but almost time to put 2022 Tropics thread to bed.

Much much underperforming season. AN tropical calls all busted badly!!

Here's what a 15ft. storm surge can do.

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1575665861914169344/pu/vid/1280x720/5uSklNuTfQDQec0y.mp4?tag=14

Tropics aren't done just yet!!

GFS keeps it rolling.

amugs wrote:GFS keeps it rolling.

if 18z gfs is right nov 6th jamaica will be gone. lucily its way out there in fantasy land, or in this case horrorland.

Oh lovely the HWRF joins the party

Hmmm a wet Hallow for some

This is an incredible map overlay. Wilma was a beast.

I whipped up a map showing the approximate area of hurricane-force winds at Florida landfall for hurricanes Charley (13Aug04), Wilma (24Oct05), Irma (10Sep17), and Ian (28Sep22). The ~area covered by those winds, in mi², is:
Charley - 970
Wilma - 20,200
Irma - 10,900
Ian - 5,900 pic.twitter.com/EdIj34FWcj

— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 24, 2022

HAPPY HOUR GFS....15 DAYS OUT

amugs wrote:HAPPY HOUR GFS....15 DAYS OUT

This would be when we are heading out to vote (if we haven't done so by mail already)... and watching for storm updatdes, waiting for the election results after 8 pm in our part of the world..  Its own kind of storm, perhaps!

Mugs, or anybody else, I was wondering if I could get a quick update on this potential storm please. I'm driving with the kids to Florida that week. We are planning to leave early in the morning of the November 6th, then stopping over for the night in Rocky Mount, NC (site of the beautiful traveler's special 4" snowstorm that me and the kids had the good fortune to experience this past January!!), and then staying in Jacksonville from Nov 7th-Nov 11. Driving back on the 11th but spending another night in NC and finally back home on the 12th.  

So, of course, I'm hoping this threat fizzled already, but I guess I also need to know if it hasn't. My hotel rooms are cancelable through Nov 2nd or so, but with NJ schools off for the week and being otherwise a slow travel week, I'd much rather be able to go. And I'm not all that concerned about rain, but more so potential for tropical storm or other severe conditions.

Thanks!

SENJsnowman wrote:Mugs, or anybody else, I was wondering if I could get a quick update on this potential storm please. I'm driving with the kids to Florida that week. We are planning to leave early in the morning of the November 6th, then stopping over for the night in Rocky Mount, NC (site of the beautiful traveler's special 4" snowstorm that me and the kids had the good fortune to experience this past January!!), and then staying in Jacksonville from Nov 7th-Nov 11. Driving back on the 11th but spending another night in NC and finally back home on the 12th.  

So, of course, I'm hoping this threat fizzled already, but I guess I also need to know if it hasn't. My hotel rooms are cancelable through Nov 2nd or so, but with NJ schools off for the week and being otherwise a slow travel week, I'd much rather be able to go. And I'm not all that concerned about rain, but more so potential for tropical storm or other severe conditions.

Thanks!

I’d say there is less than a 10% chance of that coming to fruition. Maybe less.

Great...thanks SROC!

Since 1851, only three seasons in recorded history (2022, 2001, and 1932) have featured two hurricanes simultaneously in the month of November in the Atlantic. A very rare occurrence! pic.twitter.com/hn6xIAaoz2

— Michael Ferragamo (@FerragamoWx) November 2, 2022

Tropics do not want to go away!!