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Tropics

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:37 pm

Tropics - Page 18 Fgwgvp10

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:51 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics - Page 18 Fgwgvp10
You beat me to it, looks like FL by mid to late week is in for another hurricane potentially, then crosses per 12z GFS and gives us a nor-easter, strong one at that.
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:39 pm

Um Houston??? You there......

Tropics - Page 18 Fg1sqr10

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:42 am



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:48 am

WAKEY WAKEY PEEPS SE FLA HAS PROBLEMS AND MANY WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD!!!

Tropics - Page 18 Fg5AxNfWYAEFZFK?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:50 am

GFS HAS CAT 1 BORDERLINE 2

IT'S ON PEEPS HISTORICAL STORMS FOR NOV INCOMING

Tropics - Page 18 Fg5IVuPXkAICyut?format=jpg&name=medium

Tropics - Page 18 Gfs_mslpa_us_20.thumb.png.978d68a43d7289c74242232253989191

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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 06, 2022 4:26 pm

amugs wrote:GFS HAS CAT 1 BORDERLINE 2

IT'S ON PEEPS HISTORICAL STORMS FOR NOV INCOMING

Tropics - Page 18 Fg5IVuPXkAICyut?format=jpg&name=medium

Tropics - Page 18 Gfs_mslpa_us_20.thumb.png.978d68a43d7289c74242232253989191

Euro weaker by 20+ millibars. Going to have to take a peek at these details in the am. GfS has historically been way too fast to develop tropical systems. This year at least.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:51 pm


_________________
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:54 pm


Wind Shear is very conducive for intensifying
Tropics - Page 18 Fg7jtm10


Tropics - Page 18 Fg6zqg10

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:40 am

Tropics - Page 18 Fg85bGOWAAEzZFS?format=jpg&name=900x900

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:03 pm

Tropics - Page 18 314888138_5930228863675156_4562676278693133843_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5cd70e&_nc_ohc=pbF3yW6e82kAX9ugU-W&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1

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Post by GreyBeard Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:37 pm

I really hope this doesn't reach hurricane status. Have a lot of family in the watch zone. Son is in Ft. Lauderdale, sisters in Delray Beach and BIL and nieces in Boca. Have given them all a heads up.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:49 pm

We have TS Nicole, looks like could impact our area with heavy rain and gusty winds by weekend.  Judging by size her wind field she could be far offshore and still impact coastal areas of NJ up to MAss. Might even see subtropical/post tropical watchs/warnings with the new way they do things. Something to watch after FL. Hopefully they will be okay, they can handle a cat 1, FL natives tell me that's a normal day.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:31 pm

Big-time PRE looks to be setting up late week across our area ahead of Nicole’s potential direct impacts:

Tropics - Page 18 E4739610

Tropics - Page 18 7ade8c10
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:49 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Big-time PRE looks to be setting up late week across our area ahead of Nicole’s potential direct impacts:

Tropics - Page 18 E4739610

Tropics - Page 18 7ade8c10
Is this kinda like what happened with IDA last year? I hope not but that looks like a lot rain and since Nicoles winds will be on western side if there is anything left as she passes to our east (how far is still in question, will be post tropical but south to central NJ is in the western part of the cone, so could be windy too.
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:52 pm

Tropics - Page 18 Fhae8l10

I think 2.5 to 5" of rain possible area wide. Wind gusts to 35 mph max.
Shore of course 45/50 mph I'd say.
Beach erosion and moderate coastal flooding are all quite possible.

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:53 pm

Tropics - Page 18 16678710

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:10 pm

Tropics - Page 18 Fhaprl10

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:17 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics - Page 18 Fhaprl10
Thats a huge shift west with the cone. I agree witheverthing your saying though I think we could see some pretty serious flooding with some areas seeing higher amounts and the winds look reasonable on that map, nice day to stay inside. Wait I just looked at that cone again depression off caronias but the a PTS after passing us so she regains? Seems bit similar to isiais in 2020 but likely not on as crazy a scale wind or rain wise.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:20 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics - Page 18 16678710
Which model is this and for what time stamp?
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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:32 am

A Buddy in Puenta Gorda, who evacuated the last time but got lucky with only some wind damage, says they expected last night 40 MPH winds and 2 to 3 inches of rain.He did say they "blew it" with Ian though.
We could get a good soaking up here which is welcome.Up here, 90% of the leaves are down, so that will help with any trees coming down in wind gusts, if we get them.Areas with a lot of leaves still on should keep a close watch on this.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:26 am

Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:39 am

jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

Tropics - Page 18 FhCj3KBWQAEqeQH?format=png&name=900x900

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:57 am

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

Tropics - Page 18 FhCj3KBWQAEqeQH?format=png&name=900x900
Yeah sorry no time to post pics thanks mugs. GFS continues to keep heaviest rain well to west of us then it cuts to the east, the strongest winds on eastern side. Of course this won't be pinned down for another 2 days or so after FL hit which looks near 100% likely. Reminds me like I said earlier like Isiaias in 2020 where all the rain was over PA and we got all the wind, of course hopefully not on the same scale but who knows, that wind field is beyond huge.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:05 am

jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

These are historical stats for Tropical systems from 1851 through 2015.  My guess is that historically there have been several post tropical/hybrid type systems that have made their way up into the NE as well.  Before Sandy Nicole as a post tropical system likely would not have been tracked thje way it is today.  It would have been nothing more than a noreaster or system classifieds as "the remnants of.." and forgotten ion history.  Remember records back to 1851 is a drop in the bucket.  Dont get too excited that this is some sort of unique event.  It may not happen very often but clearly it has happened before...even before "global warming". Also there have been tropical systems into December as well.


Tropics - Page 18 Nov_1_10_sm
Tropics - Page 18 Nov_11_20_sm

Tropics - Page 18 AtlanticCampfire_sm

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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