Re: Tropics

by **amugs** Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:57 pm

Since 1851, only three seasons in recorded history (2022, 2001, and 1932) have featured two hurricanes simultaneously in the month of November in the Atlantic. A very rare occurrence! pic.twitter.com/hn6xIAaoz2
— Michael Ferragamo (@FerragamoWx) November 2, 2022

by **amugs** Fri Nov 04, 2022 4:46 pm

Tropics do not want to go away!!

Tropics - Page 18 FgvNkr0WQAIKtMo?format=jpg&name=900x900

by **amugs** Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:37 pm

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:51 pm

amugs wrote:

You beat me to it, looks like FL by mid to late week is in for another hurricane potentially, then crosses per 12z GFS and gives us a nor-easter, strong one at that.

by **amugs** Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:39 pm

Um Houston??? You there......

by **amugs** Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:42 am

Just told clients/subscribers Hurricane hit N Bahamas Wed and S fla coast late Wed. track up thru Florida Thur then NE along S atl coast as TS Friday into Saturday. MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE EAST AFTER. Unreal close to Kate, tho 10 days earlier, 1985 pic.twitter.com/LE1vc4EJ47
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) November 6, 2022

by **amugs** Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:48 am

WAKEY WAKEY PEEPS SE FLA HAS PROBLEMS AND MANY WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD!!!

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by **amugs** Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:50 am

GFS HAS CAT 1 BORDERLINE 2

IT'S ON PEEPS HISTORICAL STORMS FOR NOV INCOMING

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by **sroc4** Sun Nov 06, 2022 4:26 pm

amugs wrote:GFS HAS CAT 1 BORDERLINE 2

IT'S ON PEEPS HISTORICAL STORMS FOR NOV INCOMING

Euro weaker by 20+ millibars. Going to have to take a peek at these details in the am. GfS has historically been way too fast to develop tropical systems. This year at least.

by **amugs** Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:51 pm

Quickly falling pressure at another buoy (41046) to the NW of #98L. Surface obs definitely indicate a low pressure area intensifying in this region. 24h pressure falls (credit @TropicalTidbits) of -4 to -5 hPa at two separate buoys (surrounded by pressure rises) is impressive. pic.twitter.com/UuUx8vhmav
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) November 6, 2022

by **amugs** Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:54 pm

Wind Shear is very conducive for intensifying

by **amugs** Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:40 am

by **amugs** Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:03 pm

by **GreyBeard** Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:37 pm

I really hope this doesn't reach hurricane status. Have a lot of family in the watch zone. Son is in Ft. Lauderdale, sisters in Delray Beach and BIL and nieces in Boca. Have given them all a heads up.

by **jmanley32** Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:49 pm

We have TS Nicole, looks like could impact our area with heavy rain and gusty winds by weekend. Judging by size her wind field she could be far offshore and still impact coastal areas of NJ up to MAss. Might even see subtropical/post tropical watchs/warnings with the new way they do things. Something to watch after FL. Hopefully they will be okay, they can handle a cat 1, FL natives tell me that's a normal day.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:31 pm

Big-time PRE looks to be setting up late week across our area ahead of Nicole’s potential direct impacts:

by **jmanley32** Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:49 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Big-time PRE looks to be setting up late week across our area ahead of Nicole’s potential direct impacts:

Is this kinda like what happened with IDA last year? I hope not but that looks like a lot rain and since Nicoles winds will be on western side if there is anything left as she passes to our east (how far is still in question, will be post tropical but south to central NJ is in the western part of the cone, so could be windy too.

by **amugs** Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:52 pm

I think 2.5 to 5" of rain possible area wide. Wind gusts to 35 mph max.
Shore of course 45/50 mph I'd say.
Beach erosion and moderate coastal flooding are all quite possible.

by **amugs** Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:53 pm

by **amugs** Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:10 pm

by **jmanley32** Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:17 pm

amugs wrote:

Thats a huge shift west with the cone. I agree witheverthing your saying though I think we could see some pretty serious flooding with some areas seeing higher amounts and the winds look reasonable on that map, nice day to stay inside. Wait I just looked at that cone again depression off caronias but the a PTS after passing us so she regains? Seems bit similar to isiais in 2020 but likely not on as crazy a scale wind or rain wise.

by **jmanley32** Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:20 pm

amugs wrote:

Which model is this and for what time stamp?

by **docstox12** Tue Nov 08, 2022 6:32 am

A Buddy in Puenta Gorda, who evacuated the last time but got lucky with only some wind damage, says they expected last night 40 MPH winds and 2 to 3 inches of rain.He did say they "blew it" with Ian though.
We could get a good soaking up here which is welcome.Up here, 90% of the leaves are down, so that will help with any trees coming down in wind gusts, if we get them.Areas with a lot of leaves still on should keep a close watch on this.

by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:26 am

Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

by **amugs** Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:39 am

jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

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by **jmanley32** Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:57 am

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

Yeah sorry no time to post pics thanks mugs. GFS continues to keep heaviest rain well to west of us then it cuts to the east, the strongest winds on eastern side. Of course this won't be pinned down for another 2 days or so after FL hit which looks near 100% likely. Reminds me like I said earlier like Isiaias in 2020 where all the rain was over PA and we got all the wind, of course hopefully not on the same scale but who knows, that wind field is beyond huge.

by **sroc4** Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:05 am

jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

These are historical stats for Tropical systems from 1851 through 2015. My guess is that historically there have been several post tropical/hybrid type systems that have made their way up into the NE as well. Before Sandy Nicole as a post tropical system likely would not have been tracked thje way it is today. It would have been nothing more than a noreaster or system classifieds as "the remnants of.." and forgotten ion history. Remember records back to 1851 is a drop in the bucket. Dont get too excited that this is some sort of unique event. It may not happen very often but clearly it has happened before...even before "global warming". Also there have been tropical systems into December as well.

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