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Tropics

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Post by dkodgis Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:51 pm

A week. A most beautiful country. Kayacking, atving, zip lining, and so on. Food is great. I speak Spanish. Lovely time
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:55 pm

dkodgis wrote:A week. A most beautiful country. Kayacking, atving, zip lining, and so on. Food is great. I speak Spanish. Lovely time

Fantastic. ENJOY!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:50 am

It looks like a big storm is upon us. Even the locaks arw saying it will be very heavy this afternoon to early tomorrow. My first tropical storm in the tropics! We have been here for a week. Leaving tomorrow afternoon. No place like home
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:10 pm

dkodgis wrote:It looks like a big storm is upon us. Even the locaks arw saying it will be very heavy this afternoon to early tomorrow. My first tropical storm in the tropics!  We have been here for a week. Leaving tomorrow afternoon. No place like home

Trop Storm Bonnie bearing down on ya. Stay safe

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:13 pm

rb924119 wrote:Looks like my earlier conjecture was a false alarm - should just see a time-mean trough over the eastern CONUS which would keep any tropical threats away from our area, excluding any perfect-track Atlantic basin wave that develops and rides the coast.

"I didnt hear no fat lady!!"

"Stop with the fat lady.  You're obsessed with the fat lady"

--Can anyone guess the reference??   Wink

Tropics - Page 2 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.digitalhdphotos.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2F4th-of-July-Wallpaper

Tropics - Page 2 Two_atl_5d0

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:29 pm

Wild. Storm has formed quickly. First track was above us. New track is hitting us right on the button. Heavy, torrential mudslides. Power outages. It is much slower. 20 mph. We got a letter telling us to shelter in place. So it goes
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Looks like my earlier conjecture was a false alarm - should just see a time-mean trough over the eastern CONUS which would keep any tropical threats away from our area, excluding any perfect-track Atlantic basin wave that develops and rides the coast.

"I didnt hear no fat lady!!"

"Stop with the fat lady.  You're obsessed with the fat lady"

--Can anyone guess the reference??   Wink

Tropics - Page 2 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.digitalhdphotos.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2F4th-of-July-Wallpaper

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You son of a gun!!! You beat me to it!!! Haha I was just going to post that my trop scheduled for Week 2 of July looks to have merit, but without the blocking to force the trough split (which was previously advertised when I made my first call), the pattern remains too progressive, and the storm will slide harmlessly out to sea, in line with my updated call. So, I am sticking with my updated call of no local/immediate risk of a trop to impact us, and I think that’s likely to verify. However, I will also consider my preliminary idea of trop development near the Eastern Seaboard to be a success IF we do see the trop develop as it slides east. The only thing that changed was the presence (now absence) of blocking.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:47 pm

Damian, stay safe!

And Scott, I’m not sure of your reference :’( although it sounds like something from Mel Brooks……Blazing Saddles, perhaps?

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:17 pm

Yogi or a basketball coach


Last edited by dkodgis on Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by dkodgis Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:17 pm

Yogi or a basketball coach
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:38 am

rb924119 wrote:Damian, stay safe!

And Scott, I’m not sure of your reference :’( although it sounds like something from Mel Brooks……Blazing Saddles, perhaps?

The clue was right there in my post!


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:50 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Damian, stay safe!

And Scott, I’m not sure of your reference :’( although it sounds like something from Mel Brooks……Blazing Saddles, perhaps?

The clue was right there in my post!  


You’re gonna hate me for this (along with several others, I’m sure lol), but I’ve never seen that movie ahaha guess I should put it on my list, eh? Lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:03 am

Ok, now I’m genuinely angry. How is THIS considered a tropical storm???

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Meanwhile, what hit Houston earlier in the week wasn’t….?? It can’t POSSIBLY be because they highlighted this are for potential development, but not the Houston area, could it??

I’m sorry, but there isn’t anybody that can change my mind on the bias with which the NHC operates anymore. There’s no objectivity in how they classify systems. It’s pure subjectivity now and trying to make themselves look good so they can get their funding. They’ve lost all credibility in my opinion.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:22 am

Hey rb and everyone else, I know been a while. rb thanks for keeping us up to date on the tropics, I agree that does not look like a TS and last night it was a 10% chance? Odd to say the least. I will post in banter why I have been so mia, good things: ) Hopefully we will have something exciting to track at some point but my input will be limited.
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Post by dkodgis Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:03 pm

The weatherman says too many things and not all are what the layperson wants to know
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Post by dkodgis Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:06 pm

To continue the story, the night the storm came it rained about 14 inches. Lots of pounding, windy rain. We received a note slipped under our door to shelter in place. We were on a hill so we were high up. The next day we saw a good amount of damage. There was serious flooding and any water anywhere jumped banks. People were evacuated and roads washed out and closed. It was north of us where it really wailed. Homes were flooded, trees were toppled, iguanas and snakes were out on the roads. We made it out the next day. So it was exciting but it was sad to see the damage and how some people took it on the chin. My first and last tropical storm.
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Post by Radz Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:13 am

Well, it looks like the Atlantic is about to wake up. Lots of chatter so I’m guessing models are hinting at some future development as we head into August
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:54 am

Radz wrote:Well, it looks like the Atlantic is about to wake up. Lots of chatter so I’m guessing models are hinting at some future development as we head into August

Ehh we shall see Radz. I personally dont think its ready. Not until second half of August to more likely Sept before things really ramp up. A stray Invest or two or three to monitor over the next few weeks certainly isn't beyond the realm of possibility of course given the time of year and coming off a La Nina based atmosphere in the Trop Pac. Anything at this point would be more exciting than whats been going on. This weather sucks

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:47 pm

Radz wrote:Well, it looks like the Atlantic is about to wake up. Lots of chatter so I’m guessing models are hinting at some future development as we head into August

May need to keep an eye for second-half of Week 1 of August into first-half of Week 2 of August, so approximately August 4th-August 11th. All three global ensemble suites are intimating a possible long-track development with a potential threat to the East Coast (no idea of intensity, if even legit at all) during this time, at least in my opinion. This is ONLY based on the H5 progs for the Atlantic domain though, and only about five minutes of glancing, so keep that in mind. I’ll be digging deeper over the next few days, but for now, it may be something to watch for.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:04 am

rb924119 wrote:
Radz wrote:Well, it looks like the Atlantic is about to wake up. Lots of chatter so I’m guessing models are hinting at some future development as we head into August

May need to keep an eye for second-half of Week 1 of August into first-half of Week 2 of August, so approximately August 4th-August 11th. All three global ensemble suites are intimating a possible long-track development with a potential threat to the East Coast (no idea of intensity, if even legit at all) during this time, at least in my opinion. This is ONLY based on the H5 progs for the Atlantic domain though, and only about five minutes of glancing, so keep that in mind. I’ll be digging deeper over the next few days, but for now, it may be something to watch for.

I know you said you haven't looked in much detail but when you do take a peak at the Saharan dust, both current observations and modeling. Its pretty brutal ATM. This is one of, and a big one for now, as to wy I am skeptical until mid to late August for development. If any trop wave off the African coast were to survive the journey perhaps development could occur N of the Caribbean. The Caribbean itself has been pretty hostile as well with those easterlies.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:44 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Radz wrote:Well, it looks like the Atlantic is about to wake up. Lots of chatter so I’m guessing models are hinting at some future development as we head into August

May need to keep an eye for second-half of Week 1 of August into first-half of Week 2 of August, so approximately August 4th-August 11th. All three global ensemble suites are intimating a possible long-track development with a potential threat to the East Coast (no idea of intensity, if even legit at all) during this time, at least in my opinion. This is ONLY based on the H5 progs for the Atlantic domain though, and only about five minutes of glancing, so keep that in mind. I’ll be digging deeper over the next few days, but for now, it may be something to watch for.

I know you said you haven't looked in much detail but when you do take a peak at the Saharan dust, both current observations and modeling.  Its pretty brutal ATM.  This is one of, and a big one for now, as to wy I am skeptical until mid to late August for development.  If any trop wave off the African coast were to survive the journey perhaps development could occur N of the Caribbean.  The Caribbean itself has been pretty hostile as well with those easterlies.  

Ooh yeah. It would be an African wave that we’d have to watch, but it wouldn’t really be too much until it gets closer to home, say, once to about 60W and after. Once it gets there, and this is where I need to dig in, it looks like there will be a window when we get a trough split to occur over the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic in response to an anti-cyclonic wave break over the central CONUS. One piece of the trough will shear northeast, while the other piece should back to the southwest as the tropical wave would be nearing that 60W longitude. As the second piece of the trough backs southwest, it will do two things: 1. Erode the western flank of the Atlantic ridge, thereby opening an alley, and 2. Increase synoptic forcing for ascent to its east. Obviously, the SST anomaly structure and MJO would aid too. Then, the threat to the East Coast would come as the anti-cyclonic wave break matures and establishes ridging across southeastern Canada, thereby potentially cutting off the alley that was initially created by the trough split, and redirecting the flow from a more easterly or southeasterly direction.

This is all preliminary, mind you, but that’s the evolution that has my attention. But before I latch on, I want to research lol

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jul 26, 2022 5:22 pm

Gaining a little traction with today’s 12z’s ensembles. Waiting for more frames of the EPS. Not sold on the evolution yet, as I haven’t looked. My best friend is nearby on vacation, so I’m seizing the moment lol

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Post by amugs Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:23 pm



Not good for TC development as SROC spoke about above.

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Post by amugs Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:25 pm


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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:55 pm

The key in my previous statement was to watch for a ramp-up west of 60W. When it comes to modeling over the last couple days, the trend is my friend. I may have time to actually sit down tomorrow and take a harder look at this. If not tomorrow, though, certainly at some point this week. But at face value, I like the trends in numerical guidance.

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