Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[amugs]

This researched informational tweet is so intriguing and optimistic. Many factors coming into play this winter season.

Here’s a composite of DJF temperatures over the US in winters following a November in which a sub-940mb low developed in the North Atlantic. #wxtwitter https://t.co/sLxClLpFmY pic.twitter.com/PtzuKxvd6K

— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) November 5, 2022

[amugs]

Stratospheric Warming double whammy of wave 1 n 2 ?? Looks like it.
This could elongate as I showed in the other thread the PV elongation.

[dkodgis]

72 here. In sun, 78. 

Glorious!

[Irish]

72 here. In sun, 78. 

Glorious!

Penalty on dkodgis, discussing disgusting current warm temps in the long range thread. You sir, get in the corner with the dunce cap.

[dkodgis]

I accept your condemnation. I secretly hope for snow soon

[Irish]

I accept your condemnation. I secretly hope for snow soon

Now, that's more like it!

[amugs]

WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ

— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022

[algae888]

Big pattern change upcoming.   Starting Sunday And lasting for at least 2 weeks.  Negative temperature departures of at least -5 during that time frame and probably higher.  1st wintry event especially for the interior From the 14th  Thru Thanksgiving.  Courtesy of a poleward aleutian ridge(-epo our cold source) andTanking Soi(active southern jet) .  I love the negative height anomalies North of Hawaii.   Our 1st shot is follow up wave after nicole departs.  Further  West Nicole tracks Greater chance follow up wave closer to the coast.  After that  Maybe our best shot with cold air entrenched and no shortage of short waves  in the Southern jet. it's time to track

[algae888]

[amugs]

To ALgae88 point on teh tanking SOI - thisis an incerdible drop!!

The Nov 7th SOI value of -31.05 was the largest negative value observed since June 20, 2020. Models haven’t quite picked up on this yet, but watch the 15th - 18th for a snowstorm to come out of the southern branch. 0z Euro kind of hinting at something but not there yet #wxtwitter pic.twitter.com/n24wiihtD4

— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) November 8, 2022

[Irish]

WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ

— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.

[amugs]

If this Polar Vortex split does occur and decouples with the troposphere then what a ride we may be in for a December to Remember!?

[jmanley32]

WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ

— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.

Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow.  You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.

[Irish]

WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ

— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.

Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow.  You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.

Figured I'd start early and then let you take over once winter actually starts and then you can run with it the rest of the way.

[jmanley32]

WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ

— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.

Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow.  You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.

Figured I'd start early and then let you take over once winter actually starts and then you can run with it the rest of the way.

Nah not this year, no time for that, snow is def not the most important thing to me right now. A lot has changed over the past 2 years (good stuff), I barely even was on from I would say March 2022 till now. Hope you are well.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.



The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.



Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

[HectorO]

I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.



The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.



Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

It's truly amazing how unpredictable weather is. The past couple years it's almost been as if warmth is the norm, and cold just comes in snaps.

[Irish]

I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.



The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.



Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

It's truly amazing how unpredictable weather is. The past couple years it's almost been as if warmth is the norm, and cold just comes in snaps.

Better yet known as Global Warming.

[sroc4]

I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.



The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.



Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

Great post Frank.  You are seem to be onto something when questioning what happens to the pattern when you get beyond Turkey day or so.  While we do get this crashing -EPO it clearly is looking to rebound back to neutral to positive.  When looking at the MJO forecasts, now there seems to be a good consensus on a re-emergence back out into phase 5; then 6 with amplitude.  These phases early in the fall tend to lean cold in the east; however, as we transition later into the fall and certainly the winter these phases are definitly warm phases.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_BC.png

The LR Ens 500mb forecasts are hinting at the rise of the EPO back to positive, a neutral PNA, neutral to positive AO and NAO, which line up with those MJO forecasts.  This WILL allow the base state of La Nina to come back and control the pattern where the WAR/SE Ridge flexes back and a SW flow aloft brings above normal temps back for a period of time.  The extent of which is still questionable, but a period of AN temps following these next couple of weeks BN def seems likely IMHO.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1668038400-MFdMOr3TEHogrb2.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg/epo/box/1667952000-nSbwkcj12M4grb2.png

As has been discussed many times before its not uncommon for an MJO wave to pulse and travel through certain phases over a period of time; then crash back into the COD and re-emerge again in a similar pattern as before.  This seems to be whats happeing now as well which really shouldn't come as a surprise.  The silver lining may come in the form of these amplified MJO pulses in the warm phases in the early season are likely to affect the strat polar vortex such that it is weaker, making it more susceptible to a true SSWE

[algae888]

The anomalous cold from the -epo Will deliver an early season snowfall for our interior areas. Good signs going forward as the nao and ao are forecast to go negative thanks to the mjo progressing to phase 7 and probably 8 to start December. We lose the -epo but will have a -wpo combined with the -ao should still produce a cross polar flow. We moderate around turkey day but should go back below normal in early December. The latest cfs is drool worthy. Hope it verifies

[amugs]

Latest MJO - THE WAVE IS BEING MUTED NOW - it was Phase 5 then 6 and so many were oh my we torch, it get warm again, head fake alert. Latest Euro shows a run from COD into phase 6 for a couple of days where we "moderate" to Normal Temps then we rebound into colder phases 7 then projection into 8



GEFS say 5 then 6 then 7 and  - who's going to be right?

[amugs]

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST... MDLS HINTING AT A POSBL SIGNIFICANT EVENT SETTING UP AROUND T-DAY... IMAGE 06Z GFS INSIDE 8 DAYS .. #TAMPICO LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... IF YOU DON'T KNOW YOU BETTER @AXE SOMEBODY... @SurfSkiWeather @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/Y6qVZTaN9h

— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) November 15, 2022

This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish

[amugs]

From Usawx board Blizzard post. WPS and GEFS both on board for a 2010 Dec similar set up.
Neg NAO and AO and WPO with a neutral PNA

[weatherwatchermom]

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST... MDLS HINTING AT A POSBL SIGNIFICANT EVENT SETTING UP AROUND T-DAY... IMAGE 06Z GFS INSIDE 8 DAYS .. #TAMPICO LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... IF YOU DON'T KNOW YOU BETTER @AXE SOMEBODY... @SurfSkiWeather @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/Y6qVZTaN9h

— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) November 15, 2022

This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish

This Saturday or the sat after Thanksgiving?...we are traveling internationally this Saturday

[amugs]

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST... MDLS HINTING AT A POSBL SIGNIFICANT EVENT SETTING UP AROUND T-DAY... IMAGE 06Z GFS INSIDE 8 DAYS .. #TAMPICO LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... IF YOU DON'T KNOW YOU BETTER @AXE SOMEBODY... @SurfSkiWeather @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/Y6qVZTaN9h

— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) November 15, 2022

This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish

This Saturday or the sat after Thanksgiving?...we are traveling internationally this Saturday

Of Thanksgiving Day weekend

[heehaw453]

From Usawx board Blizzard post. WPS and GEFS both on board for a 2010 Dec similar set up.
Neg NAO and AO and WPO with a neutral PNA

Hey folks!  Good to see the board getting active for the impending winter months.  That pattern Mugs is how it gets done around these parts.  If that sets up shop in the winter months plan on lots of activity.  We'll see and hope for best.

[amugs]

Haw is back!! Love it!!

This is encouraging:\

Upcoming pop in EPO after record-breaking low levels this week follows similar themes from late November 2017, 2010, and 1995. Would watch for another EPO dip by early December thanks to La Niña volatility. pic.twitter.com/EA8bD0TCa0

— Commodity Wx Group (@commoditywx) November 16, 2022

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