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Long Range Thread 25.0

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:28 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I want believe this latest EPS for next Tuesday.  I really do.  As the new Low takes over it gets an injection of energy blowing up the ULL aided by the PNA rise. I'd like to see that PNA rise a bit more forcing that ULL to dig more.


Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Eps74

I'd like to see alot too but we have to take what we can get and hope the block is a tad stronger along with 50/50 thatbwould help. PAC is not ready to help until a few days later as it looks to transition.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:32 pm

amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:I want believe this latest EPS for next Tuesday.  I really do.  As the new Low takes over it gets an injection of energy blowing up the ULL aided by the PNA rise. I'd like to see that PNA rise a bit more forcing that ULL to dig more.


Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Eps74

I'd like to see alot too but we have to take what we can get and hope the block is a tad stronger along with 50/50 thatbwould help. PAC is not ready to help until a few days later as it looks to transition.
This is what I mean,  a positive trend over the past 3 runs. Needs this to hold and keep ticking west with the ridge and the NAO block and 50/50 build the confluence to shove the SW more S. If we get these going then things improve on the surface depiction more.
 From 33nRain board Brooklyn
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:10 pm

EPS 

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Fpnvfp10

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:57 am

If this blocking trends any stronger then lots of BOS folks will be disappointed as CT, RI and the Cape get the brunt of it.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Gefs69
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Gefs216

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Radz Thu Feb 23, 2023 6:41 am

Weenie snow maps incoming for March? something lacking all winter long…
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Coachgriff Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:52 am

I am still seeing warm air in Central NJ…at this point I’d say we are out of the mix on this one….let’s put a pin in this Winter and bring on the 60’s and 70’s.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:07 am

Well, we are on the cusp of when the wheels have come off of what appeared in the LR to be promising.  SOI is -16 this am. Gut tells me we miss out but to not look away yet. By we I mean the coastal plain and south. As we approach Sunday if SOI is still negative we may be in for a surprise. I mean the soi isnts the end all be all but it is def an indicator that the trop pac forcing has changed assuming it persists in the negative.  Even though it’s changed it still may not work out for the coast but the outcome for many “should” be different….again IF is stays negative.


If your model watching one of the trends all season has been undermodeled southern energy that trends stronger and bullies it’s way too far north and west flooding the mid levels with warmth.  

What seems to be happening is we get 500mb energy to cut off and head to our NW, but as it runs into the blocking, negative NAO and 50/50 low it opens up and becomes an open trough that then moves east. To me the key is when does the ULL open up. When it does the trough seems to be with a negative orientation which would benefit most of everyone.  I really don’t think we need a closed 500mb low to pass to our south to work. We just need the block to hold strong enough to open things up before it gains too much latitude and then let a negative trough do its dirty work so long as its base is far enough south .


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:06 am; edited 1 time in total

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:20 am

sroc4 wrote:Well, we are on the cusp of when the wheels have come off of what appeared in the LR to be promising.  SOI is -16 this am. Gut tells me we miss out but to not look away yet. By we I mean the coastal plain and south. As we approach Sunday if SOI is still negative we may be in for a surprise. I mean the soi isnts the end all be all but it is def an indicator that the trop pac forcing has changed assuming it persists in the negative.  Even though it’s changed it still may not work out for the coast but the outcome for many “should” be different….again IF is stays negative.


If your model watching one of the trends all season has been undermodeled southern energy that trends stronger and bullies it’s way too far north and west flooding the mid levels with warmth.  

What seems to be happening is we get 500mb energy to cut off and head to our NW, but as it runs into the blocking, negative NAO and 50/50 low it opens up and becomes an open trough that then moves east. To me the key is when does the ULL open up. When it does the trough seems to be with a negative orientation which would benefit most of everyone.  I really don’t think we need a closed 500mb low to pass to our south to work. We just need the block to hold strong enough to open things up before it gains too much latitude and then let a negative trough do its dirty work so long as its base is far enough south.
Agree with you!  Sig event though IMO is going to require an injection of energy into the ULL before it hits coast as the ULL opened up and weakens. And I'd like to see that ULL around DE/Maryland. That will rapidly deepen mid and surface low pressure in time for the area.  Without that latitude and injection I see this as minor perhaps nothing (coastal plain) to maybe minor/moderate event north of Rt 80. Get that injection into the ULL and keep it lower latitude then it's another animal all together.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:05 am

It still seems to be something for everyone to watch although if you are latitude south of the city chances diminish for every 10 Miles South. North of the city, and I don’t mean Yonkers, I mean 20 miles and more north of the city certainly bears watching.

Right now the trusty weather app which is never correct, has my area which is 50 miles north of New York City for 6 to 9 inches of snow Monday night and Tuesday morning. Since I’ve already seen several of these this season on the weather app and stand right now with the 4/10 of an inch of snow that fell yesterday at 8 inches for the season, I of course have 0% confidence in the 6 to 9 inches that it currently shows. Of course there are Maps right now from the euro GFS and CMC that would verify those amounts. In the winter of nothing I will believe all of those maps on Tuesday morning should this event even materialize.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:10 am

I’d sooner trust the president of these United States than the weatherman.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:24 am

dkodgis wrote:I’d sooner trust the president of these United States than the weatherman.

I wouldn't go that far.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by lglickman1 Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:39 am

Is anything significant for the coastal plain off the table even in the best case scenario?

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:43 am

As heehaw says, how far south this thing develops probably tells the tale. If it pops up off the NJ coast -- too far north to get us what we need. But if it is south of here . . . so we're saying there's a chance?

Also, I put no faith in model runs several days out as we've seen time and again this winter, but that modeled storm the first weekend of March takes the more Miller-A track that most of our big March storms have in the past. If you want to be optimistic, maybe some of the longer-range positive signs we've been looking for are showing up in that system.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:47 am

Just to show how close this is.  This ULL needs to come down about 50-75 miles for most of area to get into some snow.  That's a pin prick in the atmosphere.  But nonetheless it needs to come further south. Probably won't be with PNA rise, but with confluence enhanced by the blocking.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:22 am

I could care less about what the snow maps are showing for NYC.  You don't want your mid-level 850's right here if you anywhere south of SNE.  You want to be 150-200 miles away from the main energy for cold enough columns.  This needs to be DE and not ACK. Just hope this is a tad off.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Gfs85012

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:10 pm

Modeling has zero ridging to the west. Blocking to the NE allows this thing to Miller B, aka primary transferring to the coast. As of now the secondary forms and tracks just south of LI. Not horrible at this lead time.

But with any ridge to the west, PNA is exceptionally negative throughout the time frame it appears at least to me for now that there isn't a real mechanism to allow this thing to deepen much as the secondary slips by.

Coast is df not out of some snow just yet but N&W def seems better situated with this one.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:48 pm

There are two storms to track. One for Monday into Tuesday, and another for next weekend (March 3rd-4th). Use the everyday discussion thread to talk about Monday's storm, and we'll keep this one focused on next weekend.

I'm not particularly high on either, but if I had to choose, Tuesday's storm has higher potential to deliver than next weekend does...

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:40 am

This is a classic EC snowstorm setup.  This Tuesday thing is way too complex Miller B setup for our area.  This is something else entirely.  Deep trough with established western based block and 50/50.  If it looks like this by beginning of next week then I'm a buyer.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Gefs70

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by mmanisca Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:43 am

Frank_Wx wrote:There are two storms to track. One for Monday into Tuesday, and another for next weekend (March 3rd-4th). Use the everyday discussion thread to talk about Monday's storm, and we'll keep this one focused on next weekend.

I'm not particularly high on either, but if I had to choose, Tuesday's storm has higher potential to deliver than next weekend does...

Hey Frank Im big time hoping the European has a better handle on the March 4'th storm and the GFS is doing its usual nonsense. We are having our daughters baby shower that day at a restaurant to celebrate the twins she is pregnant with. I'll be looking at the insight from all on the board!!
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:00 am

mmanisca wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:There are two storms to track. One for Monday into Tuesday, and another for next weekend (March 3rd-4th). Use the everyday discussion thread to talk about Monday's storm, and we'll keep this one focused on next weekend.

I'm not particularly high on either, but if I had to choose, Tuesday's storm has higher potential to deliver than next weekend does...

Hey Frank Im big time hoping the European has a better handle on the March 4'th storm and the GFS is doing its usual nonsense. We are having our daughters baby shower that day at a restaurant to celebrate the twins she is pregnant with. I'll be looking at the insight from all on the board!!

Congrats Manisca. Thats wonderful. IF we get a big snowstorm that day we all will be sure to thank you personally for the planning of such a joyous event and setting that up for the rest of us. Lol You know...Murphy's law. Wink

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:40 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:It still seems to be something for everyone to watch although if you are latitude south of the city chances diminish for every 10 Miles South. North of the city, and I don’t mean Yonkers, I mean 20 miles and more north of the city certainly bears watching.

Right now the trusty weather app which is never correct, has my area which is 50 miles north of New York City for 6 to 9 inches of snow Monday night and Tuesday morning. Since I’ve already seen several of these this season on the weather app and stand right now with the 4/10 of an inch of snow that fell yesterday at 8 inches for the season, I of course have 0% confidence in the 6 to 9 inches that it currently shows. Of course there are Maps right now from the euro GFS and CMC that would verify those amounts. In the winter of nothing I will believe all of those maps on Tuesday morning should this event even materialize.
Thank you for making it clear that Yonkers will be screwed lol, on a side note the 12z GFS gives NYC north a good 4-6+, I will take a nice 4-6 if it were to happen. Nothing too crazy but a nice change for once this year, that 0 on my signature is just sad. Lol at todays 12z GFS snow map, def weenie fantasy map between the two storms, 2nd one is a all out ice festival, i think the ice is being counted as snow. No I am not taking anything verbatim, as one model run to another shows completely different outcomes even for 28th.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by mmanisca Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
mmanisca wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:There are two storms to track. One for Monday into Tuesday, and another for next weekend (March 3rd-4th). Use the everyday discussion thread to talk about Monday's storm, and we'll keep this one focused on next weekend.

I'm not particularly high on either, but if I had to choose, Tuesday's storm has higher potential to deliver than next weekend does...

Hey Frank Im big time hoping the European has a better handle on the March 4'th storm and the GFS is doing its usual nonsense. We are having our daughters baby shower that day at a restaurant to celebrate the twins she is pregnant with. I'll be looking at the insight from all on the board!!

Congrats Manisca.  Thats wonderful.  IF we get a big snowstorm that day we all will be sure to thank you personally for the planning of such a joyous event and setting that up for the rest of us.  Lol You know...Murphy's law.  Wink

Well I’m going wit more of a euro look perhaps out of necessity but yeah Murphys law says the gfs will be right this time. UGH…
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:03 am

Euro showing what could be a March snowstorm from DC to Maine

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Ecmwf-17

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:04 am

To those who wanted warmth in winter, this is what we get!!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Fpw0j611
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Fpxpd911

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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:33 am

I'm intrigued by the potential system next weekend primarily because it is a very different storm track from what we've seen most of this season. If there is some cold air to draw from, it could be a very favorable track for us given what we've seen in past March storms.
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:04 pm

Also interesting because we are on the cusp (supposedly) of this pattern change. One wonders if a big storm could be what heralds that change.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:53 pm

I like this look at D6 Euro. A little more ridge on western flank and then wow.  See what eps says.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 37 Euro115

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