NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 25.0

+42
toople
Coachgriff
Carvin
Scullybutcher
Wheezer
lglickman1
dolphins222
Grselig
Zhukov1945
aiannone
CPcantmeasuresnow
jimv45
JT33
TheAresian
Radz
brownie
SENJsnowman
billg315
hyde345
SoulSingMG
Math23x7
phil155
snowbunny
mmanisca
Abba701
MattyICE
GreyBeard
nutleyblizzard
heehaw453
weatherwatchermom
HectorO
jmanley32
Irish
dkodgis
Dunnzoo
sroc4
algae888
Frank_Wx
kalleg
frank 638
docstox12
amugs
46 posters

Page 38 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:04 pm

Also interesting because we are on the cusp (supposedly) of this pattern change. One wonders if a big storm could be what heralds that change.

billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4428
Join date : 2015-01-24

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:53 pm

I like this look at D6 Euro. A little more ridge on western flank and then wow.  See what eps says.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Euro115

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Join date : 2014-01-20

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:39 pm

The block, a true West NAO and a 50/50 are key

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

sroc4, CPcantmeasuresnow and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:31 pm

Very interesting setup for this. Of course, unlike prior storms cutting to the GL, the bigger risk here might be this thing scooting by to our south. Wouldn't that be a kick in the you know what after all the cutters this winter?
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4428
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 49
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 6:15 pm

Definitely watch Next Friday evening.  If I see this in another 36 hours, then it's going suck up an inordinate amount of my time.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Gefs71

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

CPcantmeasuresnow, kalleg, essexcountypete and billg315 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 6:31 pm

Ditto
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4428
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 49
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:52 pm

We have a JIM WITT beastly storm next weekend. Been saying  for weeks here.
Book it..cyclogenesis!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by frank 638 Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:31 pm

amugs wrote:We have a JIM WITT beastly storm next weekend. Been saying  for weeks here.
Book it..cyclogenesis!!
hopefully it’s a big one

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2807
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:36 pm

BM beast baby at this range is BOOYAHH !!
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Fp2nlv11

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:37 am

This situation is kind of like the game shows where you have one decent prize in hand (like a big screen TV) and a second prize hidden behind the door. Monday is a nice little event if it pans out (the prize in hand), but you just can't take your eye off that other door knowing there might be a sleek sports car behind it. Of course it's possible when the door opens, the prize is just a set of kitchen knives.
I think this Friday system has the potential to be a blockbuster for us and I keep looking away from Monday and toward Friday. But . . . I'm very worried that when it arrives, I'll just be going home with kitchen knives.
Let's hope this all comes together because we could use one of those big March storms that have occurred many times in this region.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4428
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 49
Location : Flemington, NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow, Radz, kalleg, essexcountypete, dkodgis and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:04 pm

About next Friday.  NAO -1, AO going neutral, and PNA rising to -.75 or so.  As sure as I'm writing this if the block doesn't create enough confluence to deflect a strong ULL it will cut and be rain. No question.  Normally blocking pinches on troughs underneath for confluence as opposed to injecting NS into an ULL. That s/w dynamic way too difficult right now to determine.  So keep that in mind as the models swing back and forth.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

sroc4 and mmanisca like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:40 pm

This 12Z Euro run demonstrates the NS interaction that instead of deflecting the ULL pulls in north far enough to mess things up. The ULL eventually opens up but it's too late.  If you think models have a good handle on that complex a setup then think again.  We will need at least until Wednesday to have confidence in this one.  As always keep expectations low and there will be no disappointment.

edit: the blocking being less potent on this run most likely played a role in allowing the NS to interact instead of pushing down on the ULL like it did the previous run.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Euro118

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:03 pm

I lied lol im liking what im hearing so far but some big words being thrown out there one being blockbuster. Mugs i wont deny you of tel call these into existance. What i forget is you cant posdibly call imby or exact 100 mile etc differences. I will do as scott says cautioys optimism. Sorry for my momrnt of dispair it really actually isnt about the snow lots of stressors in my life right now that will hopefully calm down by april. Ill try keep myself in check here. Hell ive been able do it all season. Even cp has kept himself pretty cool. Like my mom says it is whay it is. You cant fret sbout things you cant control. Weather is def one those things.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20468
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

WinterColdandSnowisamyth likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:54 pm

PRESS BABY PRESS!! Here it goes again. Hope this continues!!

You can sew how over the past few runs the N NAO and Confluence press shoves the LP SouthEast as the blue colors the press buds over SE CANADA and Main3 .....again.. 
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Gfs_z500a_us_fh114_trend.gif.a9fd29d6f05fee3c94c0004c633c9c1a

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

MattyICE likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by MattyICE Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:25 pm

amugs wrote:PRESS BABY PRESS!! Here it goes again. Hope this continues!!

You can sew how over the past few runs the N NAO and Confluence press shoves the LP SouthEast as the blue colors the press buds over SE CANADA and Main3 .....again.. 
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Gfs_z500a_us_fh114_trend.gif.a9fd29d6f05fee3c94c0004c633c9c1a

I have a feeling about this one, Mugs. I think I like the wiggle room. Meaning, this will be a strong and wet system with tons of moisture surging out ahead almost SWFE style. So maybe it does end up cutting eventually and you taint but not until after a good thump then some sleet.

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 249
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 38
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:53 pm

MattyICE wrote:
amugs wrote:PRESS BABY PRESS!! Here it goes again. Hope this continues!!

You can sew how over the past few runs the N NAO and Confluence press shoves the LP SouthEast as the blue colors the press buds over SE CANADA and Main3 .....again.. 
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Gfs_z500a_us_fh114_trend.gif.a9fd29d6f05fee3c94c0004c633c9c1a

I have a feeling about this one, Mugs. I think I like the wiggle room. Meaning, this will be a strong and wet system with tons of moisture surging out ahead almost SWFE style. So maybe it does end up cutting eventually and you taint but not until after a good thump then some sleet.
It's possible.  The block is going to be key as well as NS s/w interaction with the ULL in TN Valley. We need the trough to be squeezed more which will blow the ULL open faster which then forces LP further SE. Otherwise there is too much space and strength to come north.  I never bet against a decent block, but I'd like to see a more stout 50/50 too will lower heights on the EC. Right now I'm neutral on this.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Euro119

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

MattyICE and WinterColdandSnowisamyth like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:08 pm

Snow opportunities through the endish of March with a N NAO, EPO and WPO forming around the 7-10th timeframe and running for a solid 2 weeks.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 GEFS_BC.png.bec96ecd166423efbfbd6c9a0cc6bbba

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:22 pm

amugs wrote:Snow opportunities through the endish of March with a N NAO, EPO and WPO forming around the 7-10th timeframe and running for a solid 2 weeks.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 GEFS_BC.png.bec96ecd166423efbfbd6c9a0cc6bbba

Steady there partner. Let’s get one in the books before we start talking about several.

WinterColdandSnowisamyth

Posts : 23
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2023-02-26

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:52 pm

What is the potential for the Friday storm if all goes right? I realize there's also the cutter potential all rain, and wind driven at that looks like a much more powerful system either way.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20468
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

frank 638 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:50 am

Model guidance so far just doesn't look positive for Friday. Can't throw in the towel yet as there are subtle things to affect the ULL strength and trajectory. I'm giving it until Wednesday to start seeing something more positive than what I see now.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by mmanisca Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:05 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Model guidance so far just doesn't look positive for Friday. Can't throw in the towel yet as there are subtle things to affect the ULL strength and trajectory. I'm giving it until Wednesday to start seeing something more positive than what I see now.
One of the few times I’m liking the weekend Friday trend!!! Gotta get that baby shower in!
mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 298
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 65
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

docstox12 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:14 pm

mmanisca wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Model guidance so far just doesn't look positive for Friday. Can't throw in the towel yet as there are subtle things to affect the ULL strength and trajectory. I'm giving it until Wednesday to start seeing something more positive than what I see now.
One of the few times I’m liking the weekend Friday trend!!! Gotta get that baby shower in!

Thoughts like this should probably be kept internal on most weather sites LOL.

WinterColdandSnowisamyth

Posts : 23
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2023-02-26

mmanisca, essexcountypete and jmanley32 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:23 am

Not to be the bearer of bad news but I’m not thrilled with the end of the week set up at all. Not entirely going to throw in the towel but I’m expecting this not to work out.

SOI has remained in the positive and our MJO is coming out into phase 6-7 with amplitude. This time of year warm phases. No way around it. It does appear that the MJO forecast does make it to 8 which favors colder airmass, but not until after this weekend.  As a result the big picture of the La Niña base state background combined with unfavorable MJO makes me think there won’t be enough resistance in the atmosphere to prevent this next one from amplifying over the center of the CONUS, pumping the SE ridge, allowing it to cut to the west driving in the warm surface and mid levels(our winter pattern all season).  Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 GEFS_BC
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 ECMF_BC
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Mjo_fm11

There is an HP to the north at the onset so maybe some of us, N&W favored, can eke out some front end before changing over.

Anyway that’s the quick analysis. Like I said I’m not ready to throw the towel but it’s in my hand.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

mmanisca likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:20 am

Agreed. It’s not looking great right now. So looks like the kitchen knives are probably behind that door (for reference see my above post. Lol)
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4428
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 49
Location : Flemington, NJ

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:50 am

50/50, western based block, High Pressure building in Quebec.  I'm not dismissing that look just yet. What I don't like is the strength of the ULL. Need to see that weaken faster in response to norther confluence.  And if you're in interior NW NJ, LHV, NEPA definitely don't sleep on that look.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Gfs170

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

docstox12 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:47 am

From the End Thump after confluence builds not a stretch before th3 mix and changeover. Small window left so let's see 👀

MJO goes sick mode in Phase 8. Where was this in Jan and Feb??

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 FB_IMG_1677592289661.jpg.d134052c6146d8aeaa410132e7dc7cefLong Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 FB_IMG_1677592286269.jpg.db38ec9a3fe97198886a715e86e07c5a

That is a very strong Phase 8 which would lead to a cold period and possible snowy timeframe if storms come about for our region. Nothing guaranteed but promising especially with wavelengths and past history of March storms.

If it can get into Phase 1 that is even better than 8 for March. It's like Phase 8 in Jan/Feb.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:24 pm

Yeah the window starting 3/09 is probably the last window of the season and maybe the most promising.  Full link ridge PAC to Atlantic and plugged up Atlantic stockpiling low pressures to spin in the 50/50.  SER beaten down in response to the 50/50 roadblock. Any s/w that develops would probably have a tough time moving and that could lead to something significant.  As always at this lead time be cautious, but does look interesting until it doesn't anymore of course. This window very well determine whether record futility snowfall occurs or not. Definitely IMBY it will.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf27

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 38 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 38 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum