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Long Range Thread 25.0

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:47 am

From the End Thump after confluence builds not a stretch before th3 mix and changeover. Small window left so let's see 👀

MJO goes sick mode in Phase 8. Where was this in Jan and Feb??

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 FB_IMG_1677592289661.jpg.d134052c6146d8aeaa410132e7dc7cefLong Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 FB_IMG_1677592286269.jpg.db38ec9a3fe97198886a715e86e07c5a

That is a very strong Phase 8 which would lead to a cold period and possible snowy timeframe if storms come about for our region. Nothing guaranteed but promising especially with wavelengths and past history of March storms.

If it can get into Phase 1 that is even better than 8 for March. It's like Phase 8 in Jan/Feb.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:24 pm

Yeah the window starting 3/09 is probably the last window of the season and maybe the most promising.  Full link ridge PAC to Atlantic and plugged up Atlantic stockpiling low pressures to spin in the 50/50.  SER beaten down in response to the 50/50 roadblock. Any s/w that develops would probably have a tough time moving and that could lead to something significant.  As always at this lead time be cautious, but does look interesting until it doesn't anymore of course. This window very well determine whether record futility snowfall occurs or not. Definitely IMBY it will.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf27

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:58 pm

Friday storm is coming in messy with mix icy bag to rain. Could be an icy day depending on confluence if it portends to be stronger which  indications have shown it doing. Another Miller B Nina set up.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:03 pm

Is that a Gulf Low with arctic air all over the US on the 384 hr? OMG , I can’t think of the last time we had a classic gulf nor’easter coming up the coast!!!
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by essexcountypete Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:15 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Is that a Gulf Low with arctic air all over the US on the 384 hr?  OMG , I can’t think of the last time we had a classic gulf nor’easter coming up the coast!!!

The "Ides of March" storm has a nice ring to it.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:25 pm

So is Friday a no go for sig snow for the board? Only well inland? Planning to travel to CT Thursday night and if its going to snow I need to cancel by tomorrow night.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:20 pm

What I tell ya about the confluence press and NAO like this last storm? Another 50 mile tick South is not out of realm, 100 miles would be incredible!! But that's fantasy. Keep ticking colder. HV may have to watch out for a prolong snow to ice event.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Ezgif-1-73dba5730c.gif.c597ca0b5160af58ea487e14d3233d99

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:38 am

amugs wrote:What I tell ya about the confluence press and NAO like this last storm? Another 50 mile tick South is not out of realm, 100 miles would be incredible!! But that's fantasy. Keep ticking colder. HV may have to watch out for a prolong snow to ice event.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Ezgif-1-73dba5730c.gif.c597ca0b5160af58ea487e14d3233d99
00z looks promising, gets even a few inches into nyc, just north of there around 287 north sees 6+, wont take but a 25-50 mile push to give many a good snowfall, maybe better than yesterday.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 01, 2023 6:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:What I tell ya about the confluence press and NAO like this last storm? Another 50 mile tick South is not out of realm, 100 miles would be incredible!! But that's fantasy. Keep ticking colder. HV may have to watch out for a prolong snow to ice event.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Ezgif-1-73dba5730c.gif.c597ca0b5160af58ea487e14d3233d99
00z looks promising, gets even a few inches into nyc, just north of there around 287 north sees 6+, wont take but a 25-50 mile push to give many a good snowfall, maybe better than yesterday.

Which model are you looking at? I dont see any brining a few inches into NYC.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:07 am

Doing my best to be as objective as possible here without my own biases for cold and snowier solns to creep in.  Even with some relatively favorable trends I still do not expect this one to work out for most.  

The set up leading into this, ie Thursday into Friday, is almost a carbon copy of the snow event we had Monday into Tuesday.  You have a potent shortwave that closes off to become an ULL as it crosses the panhandle of Texas; then heads into the Ohio valley and GL.  However, there are significant differences as to wy this likely wont be the same or even similar outcome.  

First, and Ive mentioned this yesterday too is the Trop forcing.  While the SOI is weakly positive, it remains positive which gives a La Nina "background state" favoring the SE ridge.  In addition, and much more importantly IMHO,  the MJO is coming out with amplitude in phases 6-7 for his event which is a warm soln phase.  This was not the case for Mondays event.  OLR maps support this observation.   

But you might think well we still have a robust -NAO and evidence of a 50/50 low that we also had for Mondays event.  In reality it was these two features that forced our cutting ULL to open up, and tranfer its energy SOUTH of LI before gaining too much latitude.  This allowed for CAD to do its dirty work and hang on.  

BUT unfort this go round the 50/50 low IS NOT like it was.  Look at the images below and pay particular attention to the areas circled.  This is our 50/50.  For Mondays set up notice just how robust     the trough was.  The deeper the colors the lower the heights.  The lower the heights the more intense the cold air mass.  Notice that with Fridays set up the strength of this block is half of what it was leading into Monday(First image is Mondays set up; second is Fridays).   The X in the second image is a weakness in the block which combined with the MJO forcing mechanisms in the Pac allow the SE ridge to push harder and against less resistance, which allows the ULL to maintain its closed state and gain too much latitude before transferring its energy off the coast which pushes the warm air too far N.  

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Gfs-de46
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Gfs-de47


If you zoom in a litttle notice the difference at which the angle of confluence is.  In Mondays set up it was oriented much more NW to SE; where as Friday's is much more WNW to ESE.  (aka less steep)  The steepness of this confluence, the depth at which those heights are to the N&E of the confluence, and the weaker Pac forcing mechanisms for Monday is what forced our energy underneath.  The more progressive angle of confluence, lack of depth and strength of the heights N&E of the confluence, and stronger MJO forcing mechanisms for late week set up is why I do not believe that most of us achieve success.  That said one's definition of success needs to be defined I suppose.  Expect maybe a few wet non accumulating flakes and a quick transition to sleet; then rain along the coastal plain, and maybe a slushy few inches of snow before transitioning to sleet and eventually rain as well N&W. Thats just how I see it now. Ill gladly eat crow if this thing conts to trend but I would argue we all should temper expectations.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Gfs-de48
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Gfs-de49

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by JT33 Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:40 am

SROC - really enjoy your posts.  They are logical, clear and quite informative!

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:43 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:What I tell ya about the confluence press and NAO like this last storm? Another 50 mile tick South is not out of realm, 100 miles would be incredible!! But that's fantasy. Keep ticking colder. HV may have to watch out for a prolong snow to ice event.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Ezgif-1-73dba5730c.gif.c597ca0b5160af58ea487e14d3233d99
00z looks promising, gets even a few inches into nyc, just north of there around 287 north sees 6+, wont take but a 25-50 mile push to give many a good snowfall, maybe better than yesterday.

Which model are you looking at?  I dont see any brining a few inches into NYC.  
the 00z gfs gave me a little snow, so not exactly nyc, 15 miles north, look at the snow map it just barely makes it down, i was sayiing if this pushed the cold further south we could see a decent snow it doesn't look like it would take a lot, havent read your writeup yet.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:47 am

good write up i get how this looks to not work. its ok.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:51 am

NWS has a slop storm up here, 1 to 3 inches ATM.
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Post by billg315 Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:22 am

Right now, without delving too deep into it, it appears that Friday at best looks like a repeat of Monday, which is to say the possibility of some decent accumulations north, but minor accumulations changing to rain for most. Difference might be a more prolonged changeover with more sleet-ice in the transition.

I'll see how the model runs today look before making a final judgement as sometimes certain trends repeat themselves so one wonders if this will trend slightly south/colder over the next 48 hours as the last storm did. Although sroc posts some good logic for why it might not.
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Post by billg315 Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:28 am

That said, with me looking to put a fork in Friday relatively soon, I'm still hoping the mid-March pattern produces something. When I was younger my mom always said "there's always a snowstorm around your birthday." Statistically and scientifically speaking she wasn't right about the "always" part, but it has happened several times.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:51 am

docstox12 wrote:NWS has a slop storm up here, 1 to 3 inches ATM.

But point and click has 5-8 and we know how accurate that is.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:16 am

This is an impressive a signal as one can get my gosh. When this hits its a gonna get cold and possibly stormy. Again where was this for Dec-Feb period?? But we shall take it.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 FB_IMG_1677677900876.jpg.5058d2b810c78392ebb3bd239e2605f4

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 FB_IMG_1677677903782.jpg.bc19d9768c2beccea1f5ae44536381e6

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:32 am

Friday siding with CMC and GFS I guess

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 3BF0399C-C70A-499F-8880-BC1C7C655B6A.png.cccc9efa12aca2c9017f2e51dcece9fe

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 B1B86E2D-E3E4-48A0-BB45-D5805DD23CFC.png.d8d29d1fdc04c32aa2698189ad745bfb

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:36 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:NWS has a slop storm up here, 1 to 3 inches ATM.

But point and click has 5-8 and we know how accurate that is.
If you are NEPA, your area and NW NJ there is a potential for several inches of snow.  I wouldn't sleep on this system just yet. Subtle changes will have large impacts on warm intrusion.  I'm mostly concerned about the 700mb L.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:37 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:NWS has a slop storm up here, 1 to 3 inches ATM.

But point and click has 5-8 and we know how accurate that is.

The moderate La Nina for three consecutive winters combined with a warm SSTA in the area around the Philippines and Indonesia and cool central IO caused the best forcing to occur over the MJO regions of 3-6.  The 90day seasonal OLR says it all(purple over the Philippines and Indonesia).  But the trop Pac and IO SSTA, they are a shifting.  ENSO regions are slowly warming.  Western Indonesia is cooling and IO is moderating.  This is what is allowing the rising and sinking patterns along the equator, aka Walker cell configuration) to shift to one of an MJO phase coming out in 6-7 but making it east into 8-1 potentially.  

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Olr.anom.90day
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Walker10

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:41 pm

amugs wrote:Friday siding with CMC and GFS I guess

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 3BF0399C-C70A-499F-8880-BC1C7C655B6A.png.cccc9efa12aca2c9017f2e51dcece9fe

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 B1B86E2D-E3E4-48A0-BB45-D5805DD23CFC.png.d8d29d1fdc04c32aa2698189ad745bfb
No solid snow for anyone on that map, i like to see how far south it is, at least maybe IMBY I get to see something, even if it doesn't stick. It is still very pretty to watch.  Does this impact Thursday night like 8:30-11pm or Saturday say midday at all? We are taking atrip up to eastern CT on late Thursday night and returning midday early afternoon Sat. But I do not want to be fdriving in ice and I know CT I-95 often sees more than around here.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:10 pm

This would if it comes to fruition makes a great pattern for March cold n snow.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-8428000.png.bffdd2ef237745c2e6a16902b965a7ec

Nothing compare to March 2018, like 1995-96 winter at this time.
Will it ever happen again... it shall weather loves to repeat itself somehow someway but maybe 10-15 or 25 years from now but it will. Maybe not textbook but similar. I'd say.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:03 pm

During March 2018 I had over 1' by March 13. How long does the SER take to get beaten down?  Here is March 2018 during first 10 days.  Clearly we didn't have the SER problem we have with this pattern and had neutral PNA. This tells me it's after 3/10 and anywhere on the coastal plain it's really fighting climo. Think maybe 10 window to score something, but it ain't going to be easy.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 500mar10

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:33 pm

It'll be easy in this pattern for the wntire RC to Snow and bigly. Bet your house on it if it verifies. Your talking a KU pattern right here. 9 days out I know and MJO helps unlike DEC.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8536000.png.d7762655d86c79fc4a46886511c83ea9

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:36 pm

Winter is back....well its back from the dead LOL!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 Image.png.0398868cc39243f79f4ace1c0adeb57a

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:54 pm

heehaw453 wrote:During March 2018 I had over 1' by March 13. How long does the SER take to get beaten down?  Here is March 2018 during first 10 days.  Clearly we didn't have the SER problem we have with this pattern and had neutral PNA. This tells me it's after 3/10 and anywhere on the coastal plain it's really fighting climo. Think maybe 10 window to score something, but it ain't going to be easy.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 39 500mar10

Yep, the coast fights climo big time after March 10- especially the southern coastal plain. Like I mentioned a few weeks ago, the unshakeable micro-trend for the Shore this season has been to be summarily dismissed from any all threats at the onset. So, realistically, down here we are probably <10% to really partake in any mid-late March rewards. But you know me...

Ironically enough, it was the 4th and final storm in that March 2018 pattern that finally brought the goods to the Jersey Shore, the coastal plain of all coastal plains! That storm was either on the first or second day of spring, approximately March 18 or even March 20. And due to a heavy N Atlantic block, Ocean County got 13" in like 6 hours* because after an hour or two of the storm grinding over the top of us, the column cooled drastically and quickly. And the pending conditions do seem to be reminiscent of March 2018. MJO 8-1 and a block, right? Better to go into the final stretch with that combo of conditions anyway, hopefully at least make interesting for us southern coasties.

And Mugs, you started calling this exact pattern change WEEKS ago! Well done- again.


*omg, what a moment that was! After 2 days of chilling rain and AFTER the canceled school day had already ended, the heavens opened up and the frozen manna just would not stop! And several loud claps of thunder! We all just sat in the living room and watched in awe and amazement as God and nature just went to town!!!

SENJsnowman
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