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Long Range Thread 26.0

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Long Range Thread 26.0 Empty Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:36 pm

Last thread hit 40 pages. Time for a new one!

Some INTERESTING times unfolding in the mid to late March time frame. A west based -NAO forms and suppresses the SE ridge.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Eps_z500a_namer_32

MUCH thanks for a very prominent MJO wave that has mostly hurt us this year, but is destined to carry through phases 7 and 8 which bolds extremely well for our pattern.

Long Range Thread 26.0 GEFS

I think what I'm looking for next on modeling is for Pacific support. With the MJO progressing favorably, we'll have a -NAO and cross-polar flow across the CONUS. The emergence of either a -EPO or +PNA would catapult the pattern from GOOD to GREAT and set us up nicely for a potential winter storm in the middle/later part of the month.

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 02, 2023 5:11 pm

Here is your map for that call Frank:

Long Range Thread 26.0 Fqpym610

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 02, 2023 5:29 pm

amugs wrote:Here is your map for that call Frank:

Long Range Thread 26.0 Fqpym610


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:16 pm

Keep in mind that operational runs may start producing some wild scenarios with long wave patterns such as what Frank Mugs and SROC have shown.  Also keep in mind that it STILL requires much luck to get s/w's to align properly.  Personally I think this March has a higher than normal probability of hitting mean snowfall for folks backyards.  That's where I'd set my expectations at currently.  Beyond that means we struck a bit of luck.

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Post by Radz Fri Mar 03, 2023 7:01 am

The volatility in the models should keep us well entertained such as last night’s 0z runs… we should see more monsters depicted I would imagine- I’m really hoping we don’t get shut out with this upcoming pattern!
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Post by phil155 Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:30 am

If and it is a VERY big if what was depicted on the 0z run were to pan out many areas would make up for much of the snow they missed out on all year. Very big if and I am not expecting it

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 03, 2023 12:11 pm

All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.


Long Range Thread 26.0 Gefs72

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 03, 2023 1:25 pm

heehaw453 wrote:All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.


Long Range Thread 26.0 Gefs72

Dont sleep on a sneaky little clipper system for overnight hours Monday into Tuesday.

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 03, 2023 1:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.


Long Range Thread 26.0 Gefs72

Dont sleep on a sneaky little clipper system for overnight hours Monday into Tuesday.
SROC you read my mind brother GFS and EURO are onto this as I came onto to post the 12z EURO!!
Long Range Thread 26.0 1.png.c8cd9e544d9d01b827e3d964a0a0224f

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.


Long Range Thread 26.0 Gefs72

Dont sleep on a sneaky little clipper system for overnight hours Monday into Tuesday.
Remember when clippers where a thing around here?  Been a while since one produced, but yeah in this setup the block can push the s/w down and the 50/50 road blocks the Atlantic.  That's how those little critters can become big critters.
Long Range Thread 26.0 Ecmwf28

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 03, 2023 3:42 pm

The clipper as advertised on the EURO would bring some snow to the area

Long Range Thread 26.0 Ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_neus_30

Long Range Thread 26.0 Ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_neus_31

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 03, 2023 7:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The clipper as advertised on the EURO would bring some snow to the area

Long Range Thread 26.0 Ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_neus_30

Long Range Thread 26.0 Ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_neus_31

GFS say hello!

Long Range Thread 26.0 FqVU1rJWAAIOlUC?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by phil155 Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:21 pm

Sadly looks like rain for most of the state

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:25 pm

phil155 wrote:Sadly looks like rain for most of the state

What state? NY and CT look ok. Even NNJ in the snow.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:05 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by lglickman1 Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:42 pm

Will any of these potential threats at all have a chance of giving the coastal plain snow?

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Long Range Thread 26.0 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 04, 2023 7:13 am

Euro way east with last nights run. It showed a classic A/B miller transfer to an intense coastal low inside the BM. Big time heavy snows. Euro control and EPS followed suit. Let’s see if it’s a start of a trend with the other models today.







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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 04, 2023 7:28 am

^^^ Canadian is not too far off from Euro where GFS is cutting. Will the storm strengthen too much too early for us? That will be key, but I like the look here on the EPS. If the ridge on the west coast is true it's less like this thing cuts. It's still too early to get invested as this could cut/run inland if anything is just a little off as modelled. And at D7 it's way too early.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Ecmwf29

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 04, 2023 7:45 am

For Tuesday morning as sroc pointed out it could be sneaky. The 06Z Euro shows this mid-level energy shoved south and starting to blow up. An hour or two earlier on that and there'd be a period of decent snow. This may not be too progressive with a plugged up Atlantic.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Euro120

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 04, 2023 10:03 am

As per 06Z EPS for next weekend whatever s/w gets ejected out of the PAC is going move rather slowly when it hits the EC. One heck of a western NAO block and just as impressive Atlantic trough pinned between two ridges.  

The GFS a bit different with the evolution of the s/w and wants to cut it because it's digging instead of moving eastward. These sig differences will be resolved within next 3 or 4 cycles IMO and that'll determine if there's a threat or not.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Eps76

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Mar 04, 2023 10:50 am

heehaw453 wrote:As per 06Z EPS for next weekend whatever s/w gets ejected out of the PAC is going move rather slowly when it hits the EC. One heck of a western NAO block and just as impressive Atlantic trough pinned between two ridges.  

The GFS a bit different with the evolution of the s/w and wants to cut it because it's digging instead of moving eastward. These sig differences will be resolved within next 3 or 4 cycles IMO and that'll determine if there's a threat or not.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Eps76
So anywhere from a Great Lakes cutter to a slow moving East coast KU event is on the board. Got it.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:29 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:As per 06Z EPS for next weekend whatever s/w gets ejected out of the PAC is going move rather slowly when it hits the EC. One heck of a western NAO block and just as impressive Atlantic trough pinned between two ridges.  

The GFS a bit different with the evolution of the s/w and wants to cut it because it's digging instead of moving eastward. These sig differences will be resolved within next 3 or 4 cycles IMO and that'll determine if there's a threat or not.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Eps76
So anywhere from a Great Lakes  cutter to a slow moving East coast KU event is on the board. Got it.
If I had to guess right now (way too early of course) goal posts based on the synoptic setup I'd put this as inland runner to inside BM ULL track.  That puts this as an I-81 to I-95 special.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 04, 2023 3:25 pm

12Z EPS. Based on what guidance has so far I don't think a digging s/w to Tijuana Mexico is the right solution.  There's no indications of a huge ridge off the west coast.  I see a s/w getting ejected and moving fairly quickly based upon less amplification.  It's when it comes closer to the east coast when it could be interesting.  The NAO and the deep Atlantic trough may make it so. If the Atlantic trough is modelled right I don't favor an inland runner. Coastal hugger maybe depending on transfer but more likely inside BM.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Eps77

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Post by chief7 Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:12 am

I think I might see some Sleepless night’s coming up


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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:17 am

Long Range Thread 26.0 6bc4b310
EURO with massive changes last night. The trough out west is much weaker and opens up at OZ allowing the SW to cut underneath the block which results in a strong coastal low. The OP showed a two footer, and the EPS that followed shows a lot of big hits as we well. The GFS and GEFS while not showing this wild scenario as of now, did show some baby steps towards the EURO idea.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:44 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 26.0 6bc4b310
EURO with massive changes last night. The trough out west is much weaker and opens up at OZ allowing the SW to cut underneath the block which results in a strong coastal low. The OP showed a two footer, and the EPS that followed shows a lot of big hits as we well. The GFS and GEFS while not showing this wild scenario as of now, did show some baby steps towards the EURO idea.
Nice write up. The Euro has been somewhat consistent at the h5 IMO. The s/w gets ejected out of the PAC as a wave break and moves along. It's the ridge behind the s/w that is somewhat in question. More defined ridge probably means a much stronger storm that will dive under us instead of want to reform like what it showed yesterday. the reform scenario is much less potent for our area.

The key to this storm is right here IMO in the PNA. The other features I'm feeling good about NAO/Atlantic trough. Let's hope.

Long Range Thread 26.0 Pna18

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