Long Range Thread 26.0

[Frank_Wx]

Last thread hit 40 pages. Time for a new one!

Some INTERESTING times unfolding in the mid to late March time frame. A west based -NAO forms and suppresses the SE ridge.



MUCH thanks for a very prominent MJO wave that has mostly hurt us this year, but is destined to carry through phases 7 and 8 which bolds extremely well for our pattern.



I think what I'm looking for next on modeling is for Pacific support. With the MJO progressing favorably, we'll have a -NAO and cross-polar flow across the CONUS. The emergence of either a -EPO or +PNA would catapult the pattern from GOOD to GREAT and set us up nicely for a potential winter storm in the middle/later part of the month.

[amugs]

Here is your map for that call Frank:

[sroc4]

Here is your map for that call Frank:

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1677758400/1678622400-rJMTtaaqAuE.png

[heehaw453]

Keep in mind that operational runs may start producing some wild scenarios with long wave patterns such as what Frank Mugs and SROC have shown.  Also keep in mind that it STILL requires much luck to get s/w's to align properly.  Personally I think this March has a higher than normal probability of hitting mean snowfall for folks backyards.  That's where I'd set my expectations at currently.  Beyond that means we struck a bit of luck.

[Radz]

The volatility in the models should keep us well entertained such as last night’s 0z runs… we should see more monsters depicted I would imagine- I’m really hoping we don’t get shut out with this upcoming pattern!

[phil155]

If and it is a VERY big if what was depicted on the 0z run were to pan out many areas would make up for much of the snow they missed out on all year. Very big if and I am not expecting it

[heehaw453]

All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.

[sroc4]

All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.

Dont sleep on a sneaky little clipper system for overnight hours Monday into Tuesday.

[amugs]

All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.

Dont sleep on a sneaky little clipper system for overnight hours Monday into Tuesday.

SROC you read my mind brother GFS and EURO are onto this as I came onto to post the 12z EURO!!

[heehaw453]

All righty then.  Ensembles are barking for end of next week into weekend. It's the kind of look where someone on EC gets a 1'+.

Dont sleep on a sneaky little clipper system for overnight hours Monday into Tuesday.

Remember when clippers where a thing around here?  Been a while since one produced, but yeah in this setup the block can push the s/w down and the 50/50 road blocks the Atlantic.  That's how those little critters can become big critters.

[Frank_Wx]

The clipper as advertised on the EURO would bring some snow to the area

[amugs]

The clipper as advertised on the EURO would bring some snow to the area

GFS say hello!

[phil155]

Sadly looks like rain for most of the state

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Sadly looks like rain for most of the state

What state? NY and CT look ok. Even NNJ in the snow.

[lglickman1]

Will any of these potential threats at all have a chance of giving the coastal plain snow?

[nutleyblizzard]

Euro way east with last nights run. It showed a classic A/B miller transfer to an intense coastal low inside the BM. Big time heavy snows. Euro control and EPS followed suit. Let’s see if it’s a start of a trend with the other models today.

[heehaw453]

^^^ Canadian is not too far off from Euro where GFS is cutting. Will the storm strengthen too much too early for us? That will be key, but I like the look here on the EPS. If the ridge on the west coast is true it's less like this thing cuts. It's still too early to get invested as this could cut/run inland if anything is just a little off as modelled. And at D7 it's way too early.

[heehaw453]

For Tuesday morning as sroc pointed out it could be sneaky. The 06Z Euro shows this mid-level energy shoved south and starting to blow up. An hour or two earlier on that and there'd be a period of decent snow. This may not be too progressive with a plugged up Atlantic.

[heehaw453]

As per 06Z EPS for next weekend whatever s/w gets ejected out of the PAC is going move rather slowly when it hits the EC. One heck of a western NAO block and just as impressive Atlantic trough pinned between two ridges.  

The GFS a bit different with the evolution of the s/w and wants to cut it because it's digging instead of moving eastward. These sig differences will be resolved within next 3 or 4 cycles IMO and that'll determine if there's a threat or not.

[nutleyblizzard]

As per 06Z EPS for next weekend whatever s/w gets ejected out of the PAC is going move rather slowly when it hits the EC. One heck of a western NAO block and just as impressive Atlantic trough pinned between two ridges.  

The GFS a bit different with the evolution of the s/w and wants to cut it because it's digging instead of moving eastward. These sig differences will be resolved within next 3 or 4 cycles IMO and that'll determine if there's a threat or not.

So anywhere from a Great Lakes cutter to a slow moving East coast KU event is on the board. Got it.

[heehaw453]

As per 06Z EPS for next weekend whatever s/w gets ejected out of the PAC is going move rather slowly when it hits the EC. One heck of a western NAO block and just as impressive Atlantic trough pinned between two ridges.  

The GFS a bit different with the evolution of the s/w and wants to cut it because it's digging instead of moving eastward. These sig differences will be resolved within next 3 or 4 cycles IMO and that'll determine if there's a threat or not.

So anywhere from a Great Lakes  cutter to a slow moving East coast KU event is on the board. Got it.

If I had to guess right now (way too early of course) goal posts based on the synoptic setup I'd put this as inland runner to inside BM ULL track.  That puts this as an I-81 to I-95 special.

[heehaw453]

12Z EPS. Based on what guidance has so far I don't think a digging s/w to Tijuana Mexico is the right solution.  There's no indications of a huge ridge off the west coast.  I see a s/w getting ejected and moving fairly quickly based upon less amplification.  It's when it comes closer to the east coast when it could be interesting.  The NAO and the deep Atlantic trough may make it so. If the Atlantic trough is modelled right I don't favor an inland runner. Coastal hugger maybe depending on transfer but more likely inside BM.

[chief7]

I think I might see some Sleepless night’s coming up

[nutleyblizzard]

EURO with massive changes last night. The trough out west is much weaker and opens up at OZ allowing the SW to cut underneath the block which results in a strong coastal low. The OP showed a two footer, and the EPS that followed shows a lot of big hits as we well. The GFS and GEFS while not showing this wild scenario as of now, did show some baby steps towards the EURO idea.

[heehaw453]

EURO with massive changes last night. The trough out west is much weaker and opens up at OZ allowing the SW to cut underneath the block which results in a strong coastal low. The OP showed a two footer, and the EPS that followed shows a lot of big hits as we well. The GFS and GEFS while not showing this wild scenario as of now, did show some baby steps towards the EURO idea.

Nice write up. The Euro has been somewhat consistent at the h5 IMO. The s/w gets ejected out of the PAC as a wave break and moves along. It's the ridge behind the s/w that is somewhat in question. More defined ridge probably means a much stronger storm that will dive under us instead of want to reform like what it showed yesterday. the reform scenario is much less potent for our area.

The key to this storm is right here IMO in the PNA. The other features I'm feeling good about NAO/Atlantic trough. Let's hope.

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