NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 26.0

+20
Grselig
hyde345
billg315
jmanley32
dkodgis
Quietace
crippo84
SoulSingMG
Carvin
SENJsnowman
chief7
nutleyblizzard
lglickman1
CPcantmeasuresnow
phil155
Radz
heehaw453
sroc4
amugs
Frank_Wx
24 posters

Page 5 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by Radz Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:32 am

I’ll take next weekend if Mon/Tuesday doesn’t pan out lol

Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1027
Join date : 2013-01-12

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:26 am

The EURO continues to show a prolific storm along the coast early next week. I'm not particularly impressed with 500mb, however.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1

I circled in purple the southern and northern short wave energies that are poised to phase near the east coast. WHERE and WHEN is very important in terms of keeping it cold for snow (or even out to sea like the GFS shows). Heights are rising along the coast (black arrow) and the western ridge is looking kind of defeated. Notice how the heights over Arizona look quite meridional but we're seeing a spike over Idaho. That is not a terrific look, or one that will put the phase where we need it to be.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 2

Here we are Monday evening. The ridge looks a little better but it's already too late. The southern stream is AHEAD of the northern stream. We wanted this phase to happen by now. But the overall flow is a little too quick. Not enough blocking mechanisms to slow the pace down.

Ultimately, the EURO still shows a big storm and brings snowfall to the area. But you have to put some weight on the GFS which shows a low impact event, because if the flow is as fast as it suggests (and I just showed why that is), then it may be onto something.


Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by Coachgriff Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:54 am

I leave the maps to the Pros here…temperature tracking is something I can manage and those numbers have been trending up over the last two days and as a result my forecast has moved from mixing to all rain minus some wrap around snow showers on Tuesday morning. I think this will be something for the members north and west.
Coachgriff
Coachgriff

Posts : 55
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2022-01-29

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:28 am

06Z Euro Control
This type of storm with H pressure support is a major snowstorm right to the coast. What we don't have is cold air being funneled down from Canada. Because of that we are depending on a phase to tilt the 500mb trough to engage the N/S sooner. If this thing looks like that about 4 hours sooner then it's interesting. Two reasons 1/if the trough doesn't go negative then precip isn't being thrown back effectively, 2/cold air sooner

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Euroco17

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

kalleg likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:35 pm

GFS most progressive and keeps the two JS separate. CMC phases too early and a coastal hugger. Euro baby bear...just right. This has serious potential. The meh for this weekend may just be a blessing in disguise.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

kalleg, crippo84 and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:39 pm

Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Euro128

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:49 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Euro128

Just because we haven't had this sort of eye candy all season Im posting the surface reflection. CCB of death...gorgeous. I know some of the sites like pivitol are showing a mix but Ill take this set up all day. IMO GFS is too progressive with the system. I think this thing phases with how clogged the Atlantic is, but its a matter of where.


Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678816800-KXrzAHy2Ukg
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678816800-hNoWxEChsyc

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

CPcantmeasuresnow, kalleg and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:55 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Euro128

Just because we haven't had this sort of eye candy all season Im posting the surface reflection.  CCB of death...gorgeous.  I know some of the sites like pivitol are showing a mix but Ill take this set up all day.  IMO GFS is too progressive with the system.  I think this thing phases with how clogged the Atlantic is, but its a matter of where.  


Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678816800-KXrzAHy2Ukg
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678816800-hNoWxEChsyc

Low Tracks somewhere inside this.


Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 A20acd10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:57 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Euro128

Just because we haven't had this sort of eye candy all season Im posting the surface reflection.  CCB of death...gorgeous.  I know some of the sites like pivitol are showing a mix but Ill take this set up all day.  IMO GFS is too progressive with the system.  I think this thing phases with how clogged the Atlantic is, but its a matter of where.  


Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678816800-KXrzAHy2Ukg
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678816800-hNoWxEChsyc
I agree. I take that setup and track. Hypothetically if that scenario came to pass, I can see the thermals trend colder once the short range models got a hold of it.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1949
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

sroc4, docstox12 and CPcantmeasuresnow like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:00 pm

EURO BRINGS BABY BACK!! THAT'S AN ABSOLUTE BOMB!!
A 30 HOUR PLUS STORM MOMMA MIA - JAN 31 TO FEB 2 RING ANY BELLS OF 2021?

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 FqzJsptWwAAg-5O?format=jpg&name=large

CRAWLS UP THE COAST.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

kalleg likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:08 pm

EPS will probably be good. I am in agreement there will be a storm, but due to lack of strong H pressure and needing the perfect phase is where I'm like and that's where I'll stay until we get decent agreement and consistency.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Eddie-murphy-skeptical

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

CPcantmeasuresnow and essexcountypete like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:09 pm

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Eps_gi10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:11 pm

Definitely intriguiging but 4 days away so we temper the excitement - it would be fitting 30 years later to the day we get a doozy, no? Superstorm 1993 - not that this is at ALL but weather loves to repeat and rhyme!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

heehaw453 and CNWestMilford like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:23 pm

heehaw453 wrote:EPS will probably be good. I am in agreement there will be a storm, but due to lack of strong H pressure and needing the perfect phase is where I'm like and that's where I'll stay until we get decent agreement and consistency.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Eddie-murphy-skeptical


Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia1.tenor.com%2Fimages%2Fa33bb724e2e676574cc6189732ef32c4%2Ftenor

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:24 pm

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678773600-DbN0OfmvwOw

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:25 pm

sroc4 wrote:Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678773600-DbN0OfmvwOw


12z Yesterday for comparison


Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 1678773600-OWdQ8zGMbJE

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:29 pm

Ukies 2cents

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 500hv.conus
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 500hv.conus

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Great analysis by all but I knew this wasn't going to work out at least for coast, not hyped but you all sounded super interested in this one, so I will assume Tuesday will be exactly the same and lose interest as we hit the weekend.  I am ready for spring unless we can actually get a storm for the coast next week. After that I am done tracking, not reaching CP level stress (jk CP) but its just not really worth looking at and being let down what 20x this year?

jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Looks like mid -afternoon to rush hour?
Why does it matter sounds like yet another rain event, too warm.

Bring your negativity and banter to the banter thread. Thanks!
Sorry sir moment of weakness. Heres to hoping for a biggie but I am not getting my hopes up, I di not think that is being negative with the way this season is going especially us closer to the coast.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20468
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by CNWestMilford Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:41 pm

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 0bc97710
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 8e239a10
CNWestMilford
CNWestMilford

Posts : 43
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2020-12-15
Age : 47
Location : West Milford

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:47 pm

CNWestMilford wrote:Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 0bc97710
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 8e239a10
If that Euro happens verbatim I will not be on (cuz I would be so sour), 6 inches and but 40 miles maybe less to NW 25-30 inches, thats just a horse kick to the head. Not taking anything with snow maps to heart now this far out just saying. There must be a lot of rain and mixing on coast (6-9/10 showing IMBY) for there to be 12+ just a few miles inland. I will take the UKMET, much better for more people on here. But I am sure CP will take that Euro verbatim, I guess 6+ is still pretty darn good now to think of it but it would still be disappointing. But those maps will change 20x before game time.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20468
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
CNWestMilford wrote:Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 0bc97710
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 8e239a10
If that Euro happens verbatim I will not be on (cuz I would be so sour), 6 inches and but 40 miles maybe less to NW 25-30 inches, thats just a horse kick to the head. Not taking anything with snow maps to heart now this far out just saying. There must be a lot of rain and mixing on coast (6-9/10 showing IMBY) for there to be 12+ just a few miles inland. I will take the UKMET, much better for more people on here. But I am sure CP will take that Euro verbatim, I guess 6+ is still pretty darn good now to think of it but it would still be disappointing. But those maps will change 20x before game time.

More negativity Jon scratch

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

CNWestMilford likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 09, 2023 4:03 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
CNWestMilford wrote:Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 0bc97710
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 8e239a10
If that Euro happens verbatim I will not be on (cuz I would be so sour), 6 inches and but 40 miles maybe less to NW 25-30 inches, thats just a horse kick to the head. Not taking anything with snow maps to heart now this far out just saying. There must be a lot of rain and mixing on coast (6-9/10 showing IMBY) for there to be 12+ just a few miles inland. I will take the UKMET, much better for more people on here. But I am sure CP will take that Euro verbatim, I guess 6+ is still pretty darn good now to think of it but it would still be disappointing. But those maps will change 20x before game time.

More negativity Jon scratch
Bah kick ricks lol jk, actually not being in the kill zone is a good thing usually now that I think of it. And in the end it is what it is right. We can't control weather. Not being negative being truthful thats not allowed? I am cracking up because I never understood that emoji thought it was a guy with a pony tail, then i saw the wording for it "scratch" and ahhh makes sense lmao. You know we all want to be in that hot spot come on now Laughing

But in more seriousness, when I saw the maps of the storm it looked like all snow all way down well past coast NYC area but judging from that Euro run snow map above there would have to have been mixing issues for coast with such lower amounts but model run did not show that, it showed all snow. Can you explain?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20468
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by dkodgis Thu Mar 09, 2023 5:33 pm

March has weird weather. It is the big swing month from winter to spring. We have no snowpack and the sun is brighter, longer in the sky. Wild weather abounds. We'll see if any cold air comes and if there is phasing. It is I think a wait and see thing but how it plays out is good to me. It is exciting to see weather at work, at least for me it is until I have to shovel snow. In about four weeks, it will all be over and everyone is invited to come over to the Coconut Lounge to commiserate.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2433
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

kalleg, essexcountypete and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 09, 2023 5:33 pm

GFS just missed on the phase timing. Pretty close though.

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Gfs178

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

CPcantmeasuresnow, SENJsnowman and CNWestMilford like this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:44 pm

GFS is comimg around - its known progressive bias is at play give until 12Z tomorrow.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:06 pm

MJO off the charts Phase 8 = BN Temps and Stormy possiblities EC

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 GEFS_BC

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 NCFS

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 ECMF_BC

Phase 1 and 2 for March are good - 2 is excellent = SPRING DENIED for a few days to maybe week Laughing !!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:16 pm

18Z Euro
Trying to analyze surface map.  There are some intriguing ingredients.  

Surface Low starting to intensify off OBX. Banana H in the mid-west and stout 50/50 blocking up the Atlantic. Also weak CAD bleeding down from New England.

Then looking at the 500mb you have a ridge developing just to the west of the Rockies. 

You'd have me with this if we had the 1035 H over Quebec fully extending that banana H. But we rely on phasing to suck in the n/s.  I guess I'm warming up a bit to this...

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Euro129
Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Euro226

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

dkodgis likes this post

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 26.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum