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March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Very heavy rain approaching NYC/WLI

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Inxr1Kphla_h
If futurecast radar is true I and NYC will be seeing intense rain rates just training over the area (probably lead to bad flooding), man this stinks so bad, sorry to complain. Hoping that 1-3 can happen tomorrow but with this much rain I cannot see how it would stick.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:500mb overlaid with preciptable water and wind direction. Winds off our coast from the WSW with heavy rain about to move in. The surface low is deepening and heading NNE. Will be interesting to see if we see the meso low try to form. Models lost that feature but you never know during nowcast. Also, such an interesting look at 500mb. Reminds me of a split flow. The ridge looks cut-off.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Capture
If that meso forms is that a whole new ballgame back to what we were seeing b4? Nowcasting things lost in model runs within 12 hrs nuts.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:23 pm

925 low must pull away and deepen before the change over. It'll happen west to east. I expect NW NJ and Orange Cty by midnight or slightly after should be snow.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 925s10

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the CCB has a real chance to impact the shore and Long Island. Looking forward to 00z data tonight.
I am trying to picture how that is oriented and does not impact NYC and immediate suburbs I mean the CCB will be curved no? And going from north to south from NJ to LI, that wouldn't hit NYC? If no at the very least I am trying toi learn how this all works.

Stupid daylight savings pushing back the 00z.

Alex don't get me started on taxes this year is the worst for me, do you do taxes for a living?

yessir, i do haha.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:51 pm

aiannone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the CCB has a real chance to impact the shore and Long Island. Looking forward to 00z data tonight.
I am trying to picture how that is oriented and does not impact NYC and immediate suburbs I mean the CCB will be curved no? And going from north to south from NJ to LI, that wouldn't hit NYC? If no at the very least I am trying toi learn how this all works.

Stupid daylight savings pushing back the 00z.

Alex don't get me started on taxes this year is the worst for me, do you do taxes for a living?

yessir, i do haha.
I may need your services, hit you over in banter.
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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the CCB has a real chance to impact the shore and Long Island. Looking forward to 00z data tonight.
I am trying to picture how that is oriented and does not impact NYC and immediate suburbs I mean the CCB will be curved no? And going from north to south from NJ to LI, that wouldn't hit NYC? If no at the very least I am trying toi learn how this all works.

Stupid daylight savings pushing back the 00z.

Alex don't get me started on taxes this year is the worst for me, do you do taxes for a living?

yessir, i do haha.
I may need your services, hit you over in banter.

You got it!

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Post by 1190ftalt Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:00 pm

Just started snowing hard, 33 degrees, sticking to cars, time 9:58 in the PMMarch 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 F70ddd10
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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:04 pm

1190ftalt wrote:Just started snowing hard, 33 degrees, sticking to cars, time 9:58 in the PMMarch 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 F70ddd10

Earlier than expected?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:24 pm

Moderate rain, will likely be so until tomorrow afternoon, which is when it might change to snow, anytime before that would probably be good news.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:29 pm

Look at the Atlantic. That is a massive 50/50. There's no where for the storm to go literally.  There's circulation off the Jersey coast and that is the storm in front of the 500mb trough that is interacting with the offshore coastal which is well east of OBX. Confirmed by the 850s on the meso graph. This thing is trying to get its act together.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Circul10


March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 850s35

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:30 pm

34.2 rain mixed with some occasional flakes.
This poor excuse for a storm and I are not on good terms.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:33 pm

If this had the right conditions it would have rivaled all time blizzards this area has ever seen.  The biggest issue was lack of cold air.  Had we had good CAD and that ULL was backed by arctic air Blizzard of 1888 type of thing.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:41 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Look at the Atlantic. That is a massive 50/50. There's no where for the storm to go literally.  There's circulation off the Jersey coast and that is the storm in front of the 500mb trough that is interacting with the offshore coastal which is well east of OBX. Confirmed by the 850s on the meso graph. This thing is trying to get its act together.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Circul10


March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 850s35

It already is. Look at the radar and satellite imagery. Radar indicates the closed secondary H850 circulation over interior NJ, which is southwest/earlier than modeled. Secondarily, the satellite imagery is showing a distinct backing of the moister fetch associated with the heavier precipitation. This certainly seems to be much earlier than modeling suggested, and suggests to me that it bodes well for my ideas. That flow should continue to back as the whole system matures, and as it does, draw that moisture feed with it into the increasingly ascending air. For the areas in NW NJ, NEPA, and the Catskill region, this is exactly what we want to see.

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Look at the Atlantic. That is a massive 50/50. There's no where for the storm to go literally.  There's circulation off the Jersey coast and that is the storm in front of the 500mb trough that is interacting with the offshore coastal which is well east of OBX. Confirmed by the 850s on the meso graph. This thing is trying to get its act together.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Circul10


March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 850s35

It already is. Look at the radar and satellite imagery. Radar indicates the closed secondary H850 circulation over interior NJ, which is southwest/earlier than modeled. Secondarily, the satellite imagery is showing a distinct backing of the moister fetch associated with the heavier precipitation. This certainly seems to be much earlier than modeling suggested, and suggests to me that it bodes well for my ideas. That flow should continue to back as the whole system matures, and as it does, draw that moisture feed with it into the increasingly ascending air. For the areas in NW NJ, NEPA, and the Catskill region, this is exactly what we want to see.

Ray, any meaning for LI?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:44 pm

heehaw453 wrote:If this had the right conditions it would have rivaled all time blizzards this area has ever seen.  The biggest issue was lack of cold air.  Had we had good CAD and that ULL was backed by arctic air Blizzard of 1888 type of thing.

Et tu Brute?
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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 C1291110


I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.

For comparison. I think so far, things are on track, especially since we are now clearly pivoting based on radar/satellite imagery.

Current radar:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Bbc06d10

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:51 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Look at the Atlantic. That is a massive 50/50. There's no where for the storm to go literally.  There's circulation off the Jersey coast and that is the storm in front of the 500mb trough that is interacting with the offshore coastal which is well east of OBX. Confirmed by the 850s on the meso graph. This thing is trying to get its act together.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Circul10


March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 850s35

It already is. Look at the radar and satellite imagery. Radar indicates the closed secondary H850 circulation over interior NJ, which is southwest/earlier than modeled. Secondarily, the satellite imagery is showing a distinct backing of the moister fetch associated with the heavier precipitation. This certainly seems to be much earlier than modeling suggested, and suggests to me that it bodes well for my ideas. That flow should continue to back as the whole system matures, and as it does, draw that moisture feed with it into the increasingly ascending air. For the areas in NW NJ, NEPA, and the Catskill region, this is exactly what we want to see.

Ray, any meaning for LI?

Well, out front it’ll delay any changeover. But a more mature cyclone will likely help backside banding/cold advection once it moves by. Sort of a “famine now, feast later” type of deal assuming the rest of the evolution follows a logical progression.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:51 pm

rb trough seems to be tilting.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 500mb18

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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Look at the Atlantic. That is a massive 50/50. There's no where for the storm to go literally.  There's circulation off the Jersey coast and that is the storm in front of the 500mb trough that is interacting with the offshore coastal which is well east of OBX. Confirmed by the 850s on the meso graph. This thing is trying to get its act together.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 Circul10


March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 850s35

It already is. Look at the radar and satellite imagery. Radar indicates the closed secondary H850 circulation over interior NJ, which is southwest/earlier than modeled. Secondarily, the satellite imagery is showing a distinct backing of the moister fetch associated with the heavier precipitation. This certainly seems to be much earlier than modeling suggested, and suggests to me that it bodes well for my ideas. That flow should continue to back as the whole system matures, and as it does, draw that moisture feed with it into the increasingly ascending air. For the areas in NW NJ, NEPA, and the Catskill region, this is exactly what we want to see.

Ray, any meaning for LI?

Well, out front it’ll delay any changeover. But a more mature cyclone will likely help backside banding/cold advection once it moves by. Sort of a “famine now, feast later” type of deal assuming the rest of the evolution follows a logical progression.

Gotcha. 3k nam hinting at a backend thump over the island. Been consistent with that. Hoping it will be the case

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:58 pm

33.8 and mostly snow now here. A little earlier then expected. I’m not getting my hopes up though.

Keep up the good work Heehaw and RB. Glad to have you back.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:59 pm

heehaw453 wrote:rb trough seems to be tilting.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 500mb18

This imagery agrees, and is what I’ve been using to assess progression:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60i.html

You can clearly see the whole trough laying back now. Don’t forget, that meso page is an hour behind. But still, seeing the actual fluidity in motion really helps to determine how things are behaving.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:rb trough seems to be tilting.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 500mb18

This imagery agrees, and is what I’ve been using to assess progression:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60i.html

You can clearly see the whole trough laying back now. Don’t forget, that meso page is an hour behind. But still, seeing the actual fluidity in motion really helps to determine how things are behaving.

You can also see the colder cloud tops rebuilding and angling back over central PA. This is in response to the vorticity advection catching up to the H7 frontogenesis. We should start to see some radar returns filling in there soon. But, as those forcing mechanisms continue to shift east, they should begin to draw the ascending air from the H850 frontogenesis into them, and once that starts happening, then that’s when things should start to pick up on earnest. And based on what I’m seeing, it won’t be at Albany’s latitude.

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Post by CNWestMilford Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:09 pm

34 degrees in West Milford. Rain has changed over to snow now.
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Post by hyde345 Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:09 pm

34 and mostly snow in central Dutchess.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:rb trough seems to be tilting.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 500mb18

This imagery agrees, and is what I’ve been using to assess progression:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60i.html

You can clearly see the whole trough laying back now. Don’t forget, that meso page is an hour behind. But still, seeing the actual fluidity in motion really helps to determine how things are behaving.

You can also see the colder cloud tops rebuilding and angling back over central PA. This is in response to the vorticity advection catching up to the H7 frontogenesis. We should start to see some radar returns filling in there soon. But, as those forcing mechanisms continue to shift east, they should begin to draw the ascending air from the H850 frontogenesis into them, and once that starts happening, then that’s when things should start to pick up on earnest. And based on what I’m seeing, it won’t be at Albany’s latitude.

Note the latitude of the comma head associated with the H5 circulation relative to our backing moisture feed, denoted by the red line. The yellow line represents the expected H5 track (center of vorticity). Anywhere north of that vort axis should capitalize once these forcings come together, in my opinion (A.K.A. along and north of my red line lol).

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 F2563110




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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:14 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:33.8 and mostly snow now here. A little earlier then expected. I’m not getting my hopes up though.

Keep up the good work Heehaw and RB. Glad to have you back.

Thanks, CP, it’s good to be back!! I just hope that I can reel ‘er in for us!! I’m trying like heck, that’s for sure haha

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:rb trough seems to be tilting.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 500mb18

This imagery agrees, and is what I’ve been using to assess progression:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60i.html

You can clearly see the whole trough laying back now. Don’t forget, that meso page is an hour behind. But still, seeing the actual fluidity in motion really helps to determine how things are behaving.

You can also see the colder cloud tops rebuilding and angling back over central PA. This is in response to the vorticity advection catching up to the H7 frontogenesis. We should start to see some radar returns filling in there soon. But, as those forcing mechanisms continue to shift east, they should begin to draw the ascending air from the H850 frontogenesis into them, and once that starts happening, then that’s when things should start to pick up on earnest. And based on what I’m seeing, it won’t be at Albany’s latitude.

Note the latitude of the comma head associated with the H5 circulation relative to our backing moisture feed, denoted by the red line. The yellow line represents the expected H5 track (center of vorticity). Anywhere north of that vort axis should capitalize once these forcings come together, in my opinion (A.K.A. along and north of my red line lol).

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 8 F2563110



Makes sense with an ULL track like that.  Probably even MBY in northern most bucks may get a taste.

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