Re: March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:04 am

The atmospheric streamflow is already beginning to reorient itself, as can be seen by the development of parallel banding features and their subsequent motion on radar.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 5 20c1dc10

This is why the precip field is filling on radar - you’re beginning to see the atmosphere “spread apart” in response to the forcing mechanisms in play creating forcing for ascent. Strictly anecdotally, whenever I’ve seen precipitation falling well in advance of a storm, it’s always boded well. At least in my recent working memory, which admittedly, is not all that long haha

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:07 am

docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Latest Euro 06Z snowfall 10:1 map as the ULL continues to be placed further north.

Puts me near ten inches ,where do I sign?

And it puts me near/at one inch. Oh well, where did you put the pen Doc?

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:24 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Latest Euro 06Z snowfall 10:1 map as the ULL continues to be placed further north.

Puts me near ten inches ,where do I sign?

And it puts me near/at one inch. Oh well, where did you put the pen Doc?

LOL,SE, I stuck it up the NAM model where the sun don't shine.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM lost the meso low last night. We now have model consensus, though I can see why Ray feels they are lost. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Central NY and southern NE are going to get slammed with some pretty wet snow. Could be a dangerous situation in some parts. I’ll have an updated snow map this afternoon.

I see where Central NY can get slammed, even parts of SE NY like the Catskills, but I'm not seeing at all where southern New England does.

Looks like a wind driven rainstorm for most of CT except the higher terrain and NW corner, all of RI and eastern Massachusetts.

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:07 am

NAM trying to SUCK ME BACK IN!!! Evil or Very Mad

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:10 am

The difference between the 12k NAM and 3K NAM at 500 is laughable.

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:17 am

12z NAM

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 5 Sn10_a59

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:19 am

Uncle NAM is def hammered

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:20 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:NAM lost the meso low last night. We now have model consensus, though I can see why Ray feels they are lost. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Central NY and southern NE are going to get slammed with some pretty wet snow. Could be a dangerous situation in some parts. I’ll have an updated snow map this afternoon.

I see where Central NY can get slammed, even parts of SE NY like the Catskills, but I'm not seeing at all where southern New England does.

Looks like a wind driven rainstorm for most of CT except the higher terrain and NW corner, all of RI and eastern Massachusetts.

My scope of "Southern NE" includes MA and southern portions of NH/VT. In hindsight, I guess those areas are considered to be central not southern NE. I do think parts of northern CT will get in on the action too.

Here is this morning's EURO snow map

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 5 640f11401f974-thumb-png-a763c94d58f0468a72c0220233e02a38

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:22 am

sroc4 wrote:Uncle NAM is def hammered

I don't think so. If there's an area that could see an upside it's E LI. The consolidation may happen in time for your hood. Especially if it deepens enough fast enough. No reason to think your area gets skunked ATTM. NYC/NE NJ highly doubt it too little too late IMO.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:24 am

The NAM does improve aloft to help bring wraparound snowfall down the coastline, especially into LI. Funny enough the Hi-Res NAM looks worse than 12KM.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 5 Captur20

Keep in mind this is 10:1 and I think we're looking at less for most.

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:38 am

Nice wrap around on the 3k nam as well

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 5 Sn10_a60

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:41 am

NBM 07Z run. This seems reasonable to me except for EPA which will get nothing but a coating IMO. The wild card is E LI for possible wrap around snows as this storm deepens. LHV I think you're going to need elevation to approach double digits.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 5 Nbm13

by **amugs** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:53 am

If yuo have not noticed the rusn have moved N since yesterday after a meso low erally casued havoc amongst them. This whole winter has been such where we go from good snows to really nada. Once the pattern for some reason gets locked in for garbage it doesnt change with some cattle prod to the atmosphere. I'll be lucky to see 2" out of this event after teh models at 500mb where showing such a great set up days ago. Amazing, Nature will do what she wants and when she wants as God only knows!!!

Went from a WSW of 4-7" here at work to 2-5". Oh well. March 2018 differences are stark - pure arctic air entrenched and reinfrocing HP over SE CAN. This is bootleg modified polar air not true arctic.

I'll track but with SROC for I shall be getting work done that I've unattended to for this. Loking fwd to Frank's updated map of lowering amounts in NNJ except for above 500' like West Milford, Sussex and Morris Counties would be my guess.

by kalleg Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:27 am

heehaw453 wrote:NBM 07Z run. This seems reasonable to me except for EPA which will get nothing but a coating IMO. The wild card is E LI for possible wrap around snows as this storm deepens. LHV I think you're going to need elevation to approach double digits.

Best look in days for my part of Bucks County--hope it happens!

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:57 am

12z GFS was close enough to be very interesting

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:01 am

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Uncle NAM is def hammered
I don't think so. If there's an area that could see an upside it's E LI. The consolidation may happen in time for your hood. Especially if it deepens enough fast enough. No reason to think your area gets skunked ATTM. NYC/NE NJ highly doubt it too little too late IMO.

A little reverse psychology at work here Heehaw. I def recognize the potential come mid day through eve tomorrow for my neck of the woods. GFS, and NAM are hinting at it. It will prob be a now cast situation

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:15 am

Anytime we see Miller B setups look to I90 corridor ALB-->Berkshires-->Worcester for jackpot. BOS only if it's cold enough which it's not. We see this time and time again.

by **dsix85** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:15 am

@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:21 am

Latest 13Z NBM run. Still not biting on LI but next run it may very well as new data is ingested.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 5 Nbm14

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:22 am

heehaw453 wrote:Anytime we see Miller B setups look to I90 corridor ALB-->Berkshires-->Worcester for jackpot. BOS only if it's cold enough which it's not. We see this time and time again.

lol I texted my girlfriend this morning the forcast map and the map of where her daughter is going to school in the fall(Worcester MA)...told her she better get her winter stuff during the current sales on LLBean and Landsend..(my own son could be anywhere from RhodeIsland to Boston next year...too soon for us..) I guess we are not going to get more than our coating we had all winter... Sad

by **phil155** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:40 am

expecting exactly ongats from this nada here in edison

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:46 am

heehaw453 wrote:Anytime we see Miller B setups look to I90 corridor ALB-->Berkshires-->Worcester for jackpot. BOS only if it's cold enough which it's not. We see this time and time again.

Ugh, Miller B's, never like them.
I thought this coming storm was going to be a Miller A, but apparently, I was off on that.The March 1993 was a Miller A coming right up the coast.Too bad for my location in Mahwah NJ, it mixed with sleet and there was 17 inches, 3 inches of which on top was sleet.Out by NE PA, they had 36 inches.

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:59 am

dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

I cant get excited yet. Its likely going to be a nowcast situation. Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.

by **Scullybutcher** Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:09 am

anytime people rely on backend snow and storms stalling they are usually disappointed

sroc4 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

I cant get excited yet. Its likely going to be a nowcast situation. Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.

by **lglickman1** Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:13 am

Scullybutcher wrote:anytime people rely on backend snow and storms stalling they are usually disappointed

sroc4 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

That's my experience too. How far west will this back end snow potentially extend if it happens?
I cant get excited yet. Its likely going to be a nowcast situation. Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:14 am

Scullybutcher wrote:anytime people rely on backend snow and storms stalling they are usually disappointed

sroc4 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

I cant get excited yet. Its likely going to be a nowcast situation. Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.

At least there is definite blocking Scully so there there will be a maturing CCB developing and the Low will stall nd even retrograde some. Its a matter of whether or not the southern energy is too far east or a tad closer to the coast to interact with the energy in the trough later vs sooner. If sooner like the Nam we are in the game in Suffolk county. If later...oogatz I wont hold my breath, but will watch closely.

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