March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

This storm certainly has given us the most heartburn in what has been that type of winter. Hopes are high that we can deliver with this one, but it is an uphill battle and one I fear we may lose. But you just never know with storms of these magnitudes.

EURO 500mb vort tracks last 4 model runs (exclu. 6z/18z)



The EURO has made significant progression toward a colder/snowier solution for the coast. As recently as 00z Saturday (pink 'X') the 500mb ULL was not even closed off at our latitude. It was an open trough with energy scattered throughout until it got to southern New England. Fast forward to last night, and it closed 500mb in a very ideal location for most on here (unfortunately CNJ/SNJ you've kinda been out on this one since its inception). But today at 12z it closed off further north, which put the heaviest axis of snows more N&W. A shift of such few miles but DRASTIC impacts.

EURO total precip



GFS total precip



The two models are not far off at all precip-wise. It is easy to see where the bullseye of this storm will be regardless of rain or snow. The question is how much of this precip falls as rain versus snow? That all depends on the 500mb/700mb layers and what happens there.



This is my best guess right now. Again, storms of this size are hard to forecast and minor changes have a big impact. I circled in green the area of uncertainty. Obviously if you are in higher elevations (specifically in this area), I would add a few inches to what you see here. Unfortunately the pattern aloft (think big picture like PNA, NAO, AO, etc.) just were not quite right. Especially when you factor in we're in March and need more of these things to line up to get a big snowfall. I know I'm sounding like this one is already over. FAR FROM IT! Still another night of model runs to see if changes happen. If so, a new map will be issued.

Thanks Frank. Looks good to me!  FWIW the NAM3k 700mb moisture transport is more expansive than 12Z. Doesn't feel like it's a step back to me.

NAM held serve on big snow for coast, not the bullseye but I do not care about that, I really hope we see more than C-3 but it is what it is. And with all that rain i imagine though some snow may fall 0 will stick, so C-3 is likely no accumulation except maybe on colder surfaces. It ain't over till fat lady sings though and I am going to stick it out, isn't the fact that NAM is still showing similar to what last 4 runs a good thing? Euro does not have to change much at 00z to show again what it was before. I know I am prolly pulling at hair strings here but am hoping for a miracle.

Sad but at least anything has got to be better than the coating on the grass we got once this whole winter...thank you for posting Frank.

18z NAM, theres a shred of hope that the coast does not miss out, whatever we can still grasp onto. But I trust in franks map, majority of time he is not far off.

3K NAM and its sister holds. Better to have HI RES SR models in step fo4 the better

In Frank We Trust….skunked on Winter’s Last Salvo!

The Nam and its 3K counterpart. Talk about model chaos!

amugs wrote:3K NAM and its sister holds. Better to have HI RES SR models in step fo4 the better

Wow 1.5 per hr right over IMBY, can only hope right mugs, glad at least NAM is holding so far, maybe we have a miracle in the making, the changeover from rain will also have big implications as most start as rain.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

The Nam and its 3K counterpart. Talk about model chaos!

See how is it that the high res is 16 inches (IMBY just for reference) higher than regular NAM, I understand its high res but that's a huge difference.

edit I see the first is kuchera, the 3km kuchera is also far less.

Nice, Frank! Just my own opinion, but with a H5 trough tilting this negative, and it being this strong, anywhere immediately downstream of that axis is going to fill in on radar, especially as the H7-H85 lows organize below. That’s why I said I personally like the depiction of the extended HRRR for the precip field depiction.

So, I think that coincides well with your circled area of uncertainty, and as the forecaster, it’s great that you highlighted it as the likeliest area for any changes

CNWestMilford wrote:

All NW NJ, Poconos and Orange Cty should be under a warning at this point IMO. Kind of surprised it's not.

Thanks for the update Frank I was hoping We will get more for the city but you never know

I really don't envy forecasters, how are you supposed to make a cogent forecast when one model shows a prolific amount of snow in a major metropolitan area and one shows almost nothing and its 24 hours out from the event

lglickman1 wrote:I really don't envy forecasters, how are you supposed to make a cogent forecast when one model shows a prolific amount of snow in a major metropolitan area and one shows almost nothing and its 24 hours out from the event

I work in NR on Huguenot right next to New Roc, if this doesn't produce (and I am not calling anything yet, I take back what I said) maybe we can grab a beer at buffalo wild wings and drink our sorrows away lol

@rb924119 going to chase this one in Middleton NY ~600'+ ASL.  Good locale?

GFS

heehaw453 wrote:@rb924119 going to chase this one in Middleton NY ~600'+ ASL.  Good locale?

I assume you mean Middletown? Lol not bad. But if you could venture up to Monticello, Bethel, or even Liberty I think you’d be even better off. Again, take what I say with some salt, though, because aside from today, I haven’t been pouring over this threat like you all have. And I’ve only had very limited exposure today as it is haha

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:@rb924119 going to chase this one in Middleton NY ~600'+ ASL.  Good locale?

I assume you mean Middletown? Lol not bad. But if you could venture up to Monticello, Bethel, or even Liberty I think you’d be even better off. Again, take what I say with some salt, though, because aside from today, I haven’t been pouring over this threat like you all have. And I’ve only had very limited exposure today as it is haha

Yes Middletown LoL. Monticello much better elevation, but concerned I might get stranded. I chased a Poconos blizzard in March 2018 about 2' that put my SUV in an embankment. An even 1' would be just fine for me.

edit: That blizzard was one of the worst I've seen. Up there with Boxing Day which I was around NYC for.

heehaw453 wrote:GFS

I mean I’m getting in dangerous of being shutout territory. Another 35 miles jog north and I’m done LOL.

I’m actually sick of this storm. It’s annoying.

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:@rb924119 going to chase this one in Middleton NY ~600'+ ASL.  Good locale?

I assume you mean Middletown? Lol not bad. But if you could venture up to Monticello, Bethel, or even Liberty I think you’d be even better off. Again, take what I say with some salt, though, because aside from today, I haven’t been pouring over this threat like you all have. And I’ve only had very limited exposure today as it is haha

Yes Middletown LoL. Monticello much better elevation, but concerned I might get stranded. I chased a Poconos blizzard in March 2018 about 2' that put my SUV in an embankment. An even 1' would be just fine for me.

edit: That blizzard was one of the worst I've seen. Up there with Boxing Day which I was around NYC for.

Ehh. Even if you do get stranded it only prolongs the fun hahaha ahhh March 2018……I have a very fond memory of that storm lol that was one of my better forecasts lol and my mom didn’t listen to me that they were getting what you said they got and she was stuck in Allentown for three days ahahaha I tried warning folks, but everybody thought I was crazy to their credit, they’re not wrong hahaha

Uhhhh heehaw……very interesting that you just brought that up. What a friggin analog lol

I thought this setup looked familiar, but I couldn’t place it haha