June 2023 Observations and Discussion

frank 638 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Things are getting worse again wind picked up and levels jumped from around 100 to 150-200. Sky is white but no sun, not sure if it is clouds or if it is all smoke, not really something we can tell by looking outside.

it’s by me today it wasn’t that bad I just noticed it’s starting to get dark. The sun is gone. And it looks like it’s going to rain and thunder but there’s no rain on the radar and they do smell a little bit of smoke from the wildfires. And yes the winds are starting to pick up here we go again.

I think if you look at a coud map it will not differentiate between clouds and the smoke. The models had it pouring into western PA today which did not happen.

I think thats smoke with tiny spots of clouds but mainly smoke as smoke is the long solid stuff. yuck

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/satellite

Looks like the smoke is gone. 48 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.Showers today wo wash the smoke particles out of the air and off everything else.

Looks like the CPC is all-in on El Nino for this Fall/Winter. It is already here for the summer and is forecast to be getting stronger through the Fall and Winter before fading next Spring. What that will mean for us in terms of snow next winter . . . not really sure. I'll leave that open to discussion by our long-range experts on here.

Doc, keep the pool. $10 says 29 inches next winter.

dkodgis wrote:Doc, keep the pool. $10 says 29 inches next winter.

Will keep that in mind Damian and will open up OTI for our participating members October 1 and start a pool between us.Details to follow later.Less than 4 months BTW, woohoo!
66 wonderful smoke free degrees.Partly cloudy, calm winds.

63. Raining. Going down to 46 tonight!

73 now. I notice the air quality index is 68. Yesterday it was 38. I notice a slight smell of smoke. Last Monday I smelled what I thought was burning plastic but just whiffs. That is tonight, too. Whiffs os slight smoke

As an side, two days ago I backwashed the pool filter and wow! the water looked amber for about five mins.  It has been so cool, i kill the power to the pool pump every other day starting tomorrow. No sense filtering daily when it barely breaks 70.

This weather besides the 2 day great Northeast Smoke Out has been absolutely spectacular. 40' to 50 at night and low to midish 70's during th2 day.
I have my location running about 8-9 degrees below normal for the first 10 days.
Meteorological summer is non existence right now

49 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
As mugsy said above, beautiful weather and the sweet spot for the homeowner.....no heat or ac needed, save a few Shekels here,LOL.

Last night was an unbelievable night to have a cocktail with some of the neighbors around the fire pit. Mid to low 60’s as the sun was setting. Absolutely perfect

75. It looks like rain will be heavy tonight and Wed. Suits me

sroc4 wrote:Last night was an unbelievable night to have a cocktail with some of the neighbors around the fire pit. Mid to low 60’s as the sun was setting. Absolutely perfect

Sounds fun, what you didn't inhale enough smoke last week needed a fire up close lol jk. hope all is well. This storm thats incoming looks interesting has a tail that is headed from S to NW almost like a whip.

60 degrees, cloudy, light wind.
Didn't get a drop yesterday and last night, everything stayed west of here.

Doc, I got a half inch. 61. Let us see if Wed brings rain. We can use it.

Strong winds, torrential rain and pretty big hail just blew through. t-storm warning was literally right overhead. of course we left bedroom windows open and the bedroom got soaked, what a mess. Luckily I was working from home, just going to start leaving windows closed when not home.

I guess it is cool into and up to July 4. 64 right now. Will it ever break 80 again?  I guess all the water in the atmosphere from the under water eruption, and all the smoke in the air may be players after all.

Some heavy rain and storms moving through NJ. Quite a bit of thunder here. Storms in South NJ look particularly intense.

Anyone in the crosshairs of that tornado warning in NJ east of Trenton.

I thought I’d be pushing up daisies before hot weather gets here and lo and behold. Next weekend!

66. Heavy rain. Out on the deck with a beer. Cheers to the board community.

billg315 wrote:Looks like the CPC is all-in on El Nino for this Fall/Winter.  It is already here for the summer and is forecast to be getting stronger through the Fall and Winter before fading next Spring.  What that will mean for us in terms of snow next winter . . . not really sure.  I'll leave that open to discussion by our long-range experts on here.

If it sets up in the right spot, it could work well for us (central- or even west-based in the Pacific). If it’s in the wrong spot (east-based), it’s a tough battle save an outlier event or two (‘15-‘16) comes to mind.

I haven’t paid much attention to this, and I won’t until around August-September because of the limitations of my own skill. But something I have been pondering is the apparent flip in the atmospheric tendency to initiate and maintain blocking events since last autumn. Before November, we couldn’t buy any auspicious and sustained blocking if we had the cash in hand. But ever since, we have seen several prolonged blocking events. Could it be a fluke stretch in the longer period? Sure. But I am VERY curious to see how this tendency continues to progress as we head through summer and into autumn again. Because IF we can keep this tendency for blocking, and get the central-based El Niño, that could be something really special.

billg315 wrote:Some heavy rain and storms moving through NJ. Quite a bit of thunder here. Storms in South NJ look particularly intense.

A LOT of rain, but pretty underwhelming otherwise. Some thunder and lightning, but nothing else of any significance here on LBI.

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Looks like the CPC is all-in on El Nino for this Fall/Winter.  It is already here for the summer and is forecast to be getting stronger through the Fall and Winter before fading next Spring.  What that will mean for us in terms of snow next winter . . . not really sure.  I'll leave that open to discussion by our long-range experts on here.

If it sets up in the right spot, it could work well for us (central- or even west-based in the Pacific). If it’s in the wrong spot (east-based), it’s a tough battle save an outlier event or two (‘15-‘16) comes to mind.

I haven’t paid much attention to this, and I won’t until around August-September because of the limitations of my own skill. But something I have been pondering is the apparent flip in the atmospheric tendency to initiate and maintain blocking events since last autumn. Before November, we couldn’t buy any auspicious and sustained blocking if we had the cash in hand. But ever since, we have seen several prolonged blocking events. Could it be a fluke stretch in the longer period? Sure. But I am VERY curious to see how this tendency continues to progress as we head through summer and into autumn again. Because IF we can keep this tendency for blocking, and get the central-based El Niño, that could be something really special.

For what little it’s worth (in my opinion), the consensus of seasonal guidance at this stage is pretty drool worthy for the season lol

82* beautiful day! Happy Father's Day!!

Wow if gfs is correct we are literally going to have rain everyday for the next 2 weeks. That would suck especially since i am taking time off and was hoping to enjoy some summer weather.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow if gfs is correct we are literally going to have rain everyday for the next 2 weeks. That would suck especially since i am taking time off and was hoping to enjoy some summer weather.

It's crazy it's been so dry and now boom..in 20 years of boating we have never started out our Vacation with this kind of forecast..lol

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Looks like the CPC is all-in on El Nino for this Fall/Winter.  It is already here for the summer and is forecast to be getting stronger through the Fall and Winter before fading next Spring.  What that will mean for us in terms of snow next winter . . . not really sure.  I'll leave that open to discussion by our long-range experts on here.

If it sets up in the right spot, it could work well for us (central- or even west-based in the Pacific). If it’s in the wrong spot (east-based), it’s a tough battle save an outlier event or two (‘15-‘16) comes to mind.

I haven’t paid much attention to this, and I won’t until around August-September because of the limitations of my own skill. But something I have been pondering is the apparent flip in the atmospheric tendency to initiate and maintain blocking events since last autumn. Before November, we couldn’t buy any auspicious and sustained blocking if we had the cash in hand. But ever since, we have seen several prolonged blocking events. Could it be a fluke stretch in the longer period? Sure. But I am VERY curious to see how this tendency continues to progress as we head through summer and into autumn again. Because IF we can keep this tendency for blocking, and get the central-based El Niño, that could be something really special.

Yeah, I've read quite a bit that with El Ninos a lot has to do with placement in terms of how it affects our winters. The numbers are kind of all over the place from a quick glance (for instance, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10, 13-14, 14-15 good for snowfall; 87-88, 91-92, 97-98, 18-19, not so good for snowfall). I suspect based on what you say, if I delved deeper I'd find the good years were more central/west-based and the bad years east-based.