June 2023 Observations and Discussion

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Looks like the CPC is all-in on El Nino for this Fall/Winter.  It is already here for the summer and is forecast to be getting stronger through the Fall and Winter before fading next Spring.  What that will mean for us in terms of snow next winter . . . not really sure.  I'll leave that open to discussion by our long-range experts on here.

If it sets up in the right spot, it could work well for us (central- or even west-based in the Pacific). If it’s in the wrong spot (east-based), it’s a tough battle save an outlier event or two (‘15-‘16) comes to mind.

I haven’t paid much attention to this, and I won’t until around August-September because of the limitations of my own skill. But something I have been pondering is the apparent flip in the atmospheric tendency to initiate and maintain blocking events since last autumn. Before November, we couldn’t buy any auspicious and sustained blocking if we had the cash in hand. But ever since, we have seen several prolonged blocking events. Could it be a fluke stretch in the longer period? Sure. But I am VERY curious to see how this tendency continues to progress as we head through summer and into autumn again. Because IF we can keep this tendency for blocking, and get the central-based El Niño, that could be something really special.

Yeah, I've read quite a bit that with El Ninos a lot has to do with placement in terms of how it affects our winters. The numbers are kind of all over the place from a quick glance (for instance, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10, 13-14, 14-15 good for snowfall; 87-88, 91-92, 97-98, 18-19, not so good for snowfall). I suspect based on what you say, if I delved deeper I'd find the good years were more central/west-based and the bad years east-based.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow if gfs is correct we are literally going to have rain everyday for the next 2 weeks. That would suck especially since i am taking time off and was hoping to enjoy some summer weather.

It's crazy it's been so dry  and now boom..in 20 years of boating we have never started out our Vacation with this kind of forecast..lol

Yup guess I won't be sitting by the pool next Wednesday sipping a drink instead inside on the couch sipping a drink bah.

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Looks like the CPC is all-in on El Nino for this Fall/Winter.  It is already here for the summer and is forecast to be getting stronger through the Fall and Winter before fading next Spring.  What that will mean for us in terms of snow next winter . . . not really sure.  I'll leave that open to discussion by our long-range experts on here.

If it sets up in the right spot, it could work well for us (central- or even west-based in the Pacific). If it’s in the wrong spot (east-based), it’s a tough battle save an outlier event or two (‘15-‘16) comes to mind.

I haven’t paid much attention to this, and I won’t until around August-September because of the limitations of my own skill. But something I have been pondering is the apparent flip in the atmospheric tendency to initiate and maintain blocking events since last autumn. Before November, we couldn’t buy any auspicious and sustained blocking if we had the cash in hand. But ever since, we have seen several prolonged blocking events. Could it be a fluke stretch in the longer period? Sure. But I am VERY curious to see how this tendency continues to progress as we head through summer and into autumn again. Because IF we can keep this tendency for blocking, and get the central-based El Niño, that could be something really special.

Yeah, I've read quite a bit that with El Ninos a lot has to do with placement in terms of how it affects our winters. The numbers are kind of all over the place from a quick glance (for instance, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10, 13-14, 14-15 good for snowfall; 87-88, 91-92, 97-98, 18-19, not so good for snowfall). I suspect based on what you say, if I delved deeper I'd find the good years were more central/west-based and the bad years east-based.

I would say  when examining analogs based on the Trop Pac temps we likely will need to concurrently look at the ones that also match with the Atlantic configurations.  For instance, if El Nino ends up East Based you will also have to see which east based Ninos had this kind of Atlantic look.  There has been a very rapid and intense warming take place in the Atlantic this spring.  One would have to figure with SSTA this warm in the North Atlantic and along the African coast line that the walker and hadley cell configuration would be greatly affected  during the winter months; esp if the cold anomalies persist off the EC and these warm anomalies persist at similar intensities.  If temps persist this anomalously in the Atlantic one would anticipate that it could have a much larger impact on how a given type of El Nino plays out, (mod vs strong, east vs central vs west based), relative to the typical El Nino configuration; for better or worse.  Put another way, might the Atlantic SSTA config play a bigger role as a driver of how or whee blocking features set up, and where the mean troughs and ridges set up.  Should be fun to see how it all evolves. 




For comparison here is the Atlantic from Feb 15th...4 months ago.

Since it started raining (Wed?), I see two inches in the rain gauge. Not as much as I expected so far. It was 86 for a bit. Warm enough and everyone knows it's humid. Skies are cloudly and someone looking like rain but so far all day it held off.

Looks like just about July 4, the heat comes in. Does anyone remember such a cool June?

Looks like there maybe some severe weather tomorrow. I am hoping it is not too bad

I guess nobody else thinks the severe weather threat is as high as it is being made out to be, I guess we will see. I am hoping it is a nothing burger

NW NJ; SE Pa have been getting hammered. Heavy cells training it seems. Id imagine some significant flooding going on.

It’s been quiet here on the shore today, not sure if much will spring up overnight!!!

Wow. The thunder last night was unbelievable. Some of the loudest crashes of thunder I've heard. Lightning must have been striking right by my place. Heard a lot of people around me lost power and there was a fair amount of road flooding. Hopefully things slowly improve as the pre-holiday weekend approaches.

Had a massive downpour and thunder from 11:30 to about 12:15 and dropped 1.10" in that rimeframe. 1.64" since midnight and 2.31" in 24 hours.
Let's see what we get tonight.

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Looks like the CPC is all-in on El Nino for this Fall/Winter.  It is already here for the summer and is forecast to be getting stronger through the Fall and Winter before fading next Spring.  What that will mean for us in terms of snow next winter . . . not really sure.  I'll leave that open to discussion by our long-range experts on here.

If it sets up in the right spot, it could work well for us (central- or even west-based in the Pacific). If it’s in the wrong spot (east-based), it’s a tough battle save an outlier event or two (‘15-‘16) comes to mind.

I haven’t paid much attention to this, and I won’t until around August-September because of the limitations of my own skill. But something I have been pondering is the apparent flip in the atmospheric tendency to initiate and maintain blocking events since last autumn. Before November, we couldn’t buy any auspicious and sustained blocking if we had the cash in hand. But ever since, we have seen several prolonged blocking events. Could it be a fluke stretch in the longer period? Sure. But I am VERY curious to see how this tendency continues to progress as we head through summer and into autumn again. Because IF we can keep this tendency for blocking, and get the central-based El Niño, that could be something really special.

Yeah, I've read quite a bit that with El Ninos a lot has to do with placement in terms of how it affects our winters. The numbers are kind of all over the place from a quick glance (for instance, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10, 13-14, 14-15 good for snowfall; 87-88, 91-92, 97-98, 18-19, not so good for snowfall). I suspect based on what you say, if I delved deeper I'd find the good years were more central/west-based and the bad years east-based.

I would say  when examining analogs based on the Trop Pac temps we likely will need to concurrently look at the ones that also match with the Atlantic configurations.  For instance, if El Nino ends up East Based you will also have to see which east based Ninos had this kind of Atlantic look.  There has been a very rapid and intense warming take place in the Atlantic this spring.  One would have to figure with SSTA this warm in the North Atlantic and along the African coast line that the walker and hadley cell configuration would be greatly affected  during the winter months; esp if the cold anomalies persist off the EC and these warm anomalies persist at similar intensities.  If temps persist this anomalously in the Atlantic one would anticipate that it could have a much larger impact on how a given type of El Nino plays out, (mod vs strong, east vs central vs west based), relative to the typical El Nino configuration; for better or worse.  Put another way, might the Atlantic SSTA config play a bigger role as a driver of how or whee blocking features set up, and where the mean troughs and ridges set up.  Should be fun to see how it all evolves. 




For comparison here is the Atlantic from Feb 15th...4 months ago.  

You bring up a great point, Scott. In the grand scheme of things, no one signal acts alone, even though at times one may dominate the other signals. That said, since the tropical Pacific holds the most energy potential in the world, I think it is the most influential overall. Basically, all I’m saying is I would like our chances of having some form of actual winter if we had a central or west-based El Niño significantly more than if it remains east-based, all other factors being equal. That’s all. As you said, we have plenty of time to see how this all evolves.

My main fear with an east-based El Niño, ESPECIALLY if we maintain the propensity for these blocking episodes, is that as the Greenland blocks retrograde the SE ridge repeatedly links up with it, and the whole kit and caboodle ends up dive bombing into the West again, just like last year, and we end up with Wall or Wing.

That said, you could counter with the argument that hypothetically, if the east-based El Niño is strong enough, it could potentially phase lock the MJO into 8-1-2-3 and the SOI in a negative state, which would act to counter/mitigate the effects of the east-based SST warmth. It’s a chess match, but I think the east-based El Niño signal would win out with respect to the configuration aloft, and the SE ridge would dominate, simply because the water off the western coast of South America is so much colder than the central and western Niño regions. So the input from smaller-scale signals like the MJO/SOI would have muted effects right from the beginning as compared to if they get trapped by a further west El Niño, when there would be much constructive interference working in our favor. Anywho, just my musings lol

Another "Wall" or "Wing", I cannot abide.

billg315 wrote:Another "Wall" or "Wing", I cannot abide.

We will know by Octiber 15th when OTI opens.If that happens, major capital improvements will be done in anticipation of massive Mainland exodus!

Getting hazy out there again! Hazy sun.

57, hazy.  For us retired folk, it is the hazy, lazy days of summer...those days of pretzels and beer (Nat King Cole)...and it looks like a gully washer Sat night into Sun day.  I had five inches of rain from start to when it stopped this past week. I've worked hard on repairing the lawn:  moss out, top soil, seeding, hay, lime, crab grass preventative, fertilizer. The lawn is back. Everyone is happy except for those who must cut the grass. I am getting the feeling the new weather is one of extremes (no data, just a feeling) where it is bone dry for spells and then it's Seattle weather for spells.

Doc, I finally caught Bubba the Big Mouth Bass.  This time, I caved to his legacy and returned him to the lake.  Life just wouldn't be the same without Bubba gumping around in the lake. He wasn't grateful, too cantankerous to realize his almost-demise.  I didn't want an eristic animal rights crowd appearing at my door.

dkodgis wrote:57, hazy.  For us retired folk, it is the hazy, lazy days of summer...those days of pretzels and beer (Nat King Cole)...and it looks like a gully washer Sat night into Sun day.  I had five inches of rain from start to when it stopped this past week. I've worked hard on repairing the lawn:  moss out, top soil, seeding, hay, lime, crab grass preventative, fertilizer. The lawn is back. Everyone is happy except for those who must cut the grass. I am getting the feeling the new weather is one of extremes (no data, just a feeling) where it is bone dry for spells and then it's Seattle weather for spells.

Doc, I finally caught Bubba the Big Mouth Bass.  This time, I caved to his legacy and returned him to the lake.  Life just wouldn't be the same without Bubba gumping around in the lake. He wasn't grateful, too cantakerous to realize his almost-demise.  I didn't want an eristic animal rights crowd appearing at my door.

Nice,Damian!! I have always been a catch and release fisherman so as not to incur the wrath of the PETA crowd,LOL.

Great song by Nat, brings back memories of two months out of school,LOL.

Same here today haze.Reminds me of Purple Haze, another band from years gone by.

Very hazy muggy morning.for next week I am hearing it’s going to be upper 80s to near 90

Yep, the smoky haze has returned. Not nearly as bad as June 7, but very noticeable.

Hoping for a good weekend leading into the 4th of July. Looking a little unsettled, but I think there will be some good stretches of weather in there between any rounds of thunderstorms.

Smoke was pretty bad today out by me. Bill same as far as not nearly as bad as it was earlier this month.

https://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/current/