2023 Atlantic Tropics season

Flight Con data rolling in Close too a CAT 5 Wow..........

mog 930mb 145 kts!! wow

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

18z
HAFS-A 900 mb, 175-180 knts
HAFS-B 912 mbar, 170 Knts

180 knts = 207 MPH yikes

Joe Snow wrote:18z
HAFS-A  900 mb, 175-180 knts
HAFS-B 912 mbar, 170 Knts

180 knts = 207 MPH yikes  

You gotta be kidding me, holy snikeys this go be a record breaker, all tracks and models are of the table IMO, this thing is go do what it wants. Where did you find this info? Sub 900mb would be a record no? Would a cane this strong be less likely to to run north sooner? I believe that upper and lower level impacts of storms this extreme are far less impactful.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

I don’t think this is hyping at all. He offers a logical discussion of what is currently the worst case scenario as depicted by modeling and why it’s feasible. He’s not saying that it’s going to happen and that Cape Cod will be wiped off the map lol personally, I’m worried even the run shown here may not be far enough west in the long run. Is my concern and previous discussions hype?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

I don’t think this is hyping at all. He offers a logical discussion of what is currently the worst case scenario as depicted by modeling and why it’s feasible. He’s not saying that it’s going to happen and that Cape Cod will be wiped off the map lol personally, I’m worried even the run shown here may not be far enough west in the long run. Is my concern and previous discussions hype?

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

I don’t think this is hyping at all. He offers a logical discussion of what is currently the worst case scenario as depicted by modeling and why it’s feasible. He’s not saying that it’s going to happen and that Cape Cod will be wiped off the map lol personally, I’m worried even the run shown here may not be far enough west in the long run. Is my concern and previous discussions hype?

no lol, i was just poking at bastardi. this is nuts though. split the difference in your cone (that you mentioned) and u got a NJ/NYC landfall. Not saying it's go happen cuz i got even less of a clue than all of u but something tells me this is go be bad news for someone, and how much will he actually weaken, go take a lot to get him below major status even hitting cooler waters.

Added note I realize this is a violation of the forum to poke at meterologists, no harm was meant I apologize.

180 KNT gust at 918 mb

Joe Snow wrote:

180 KNT gust at 918 mb

oh so thats not sustained those are gusts, i was going to say 207mph 900mb cane at 11pm would be nuts, this data will be in the 12z tomorrow prolly not 00z correct? I expect that model tracks will change, maybe sig with this new data.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

I don’t think this is hyping at all. He offers a logical discussion of what is currently the worst case scenario as depicted by modeling and why it’s feasible. He’s not saying that it’s going to happen and that Cape Cod will be wiped off the map lol personally, I’m worried even the run shown here may not be far enough west in the long run. Is my concern and previous discussions hype?

no lol, i was just poking at bastardi. this is nuts though. split the difference in your cone (that you mentioned) and u got a NJ/NYC landfall. Not saying it's go happen cuz i got even less of a clue than all of u but something tells me this is go be bad news for someone, and how much will he actually weaken, go take a lot to get him below major status even hitting cooler waters.

Oo ok haha and when storms get that strong, that means everything is optimal. But as soon as any one component is altered and that balance is thrown off, it doesn’t take as much to significantly impact the circulation negatively as you might think.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

I don’t think this is hyping at all. He offers a logical discussion of what is currently the worst case scenario as depicted by modeling and why it’s feasible. He’s not saying that it’s going to happen and that Cape Cod will be wiped off the map lol personally, I’m worried even the run shown here may not be far enough west in the long run. Is my concern and previous discussions hype?

no lol, i was just poking at bastardi. this is nuts though. split the difference in your cone (that you mentioned) and u got a NJ/NYC landfall. Not saying it's go happen cuz i got even less of a clue than all of u but something tells me this is go be bad news for someone, and how much will he actually weaken, go take a lot to get him below major status even hitting cooler waters.

Oo ok haha and when storms get that strong, that means everything is optimal. But as soon as any one component is altered and that balance is thrown off, it doesn’t take as much to significantly impact the circulation negatively as you might think.

Rb please I right now don't want to be a hysterical mother..but my son is 4 hours away from home...15 min outside of Providence in Smithfield...can you tell me when we will have a better idea and if the ai models are right he would be in a really bad area??? You can dm me or answer in banter if you want.

Well this is going to get interesting, Lee with Margot

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

I don’t think this is hyping at all. He offers a logical discussion of what is currently the worst case scenario as depicted by modeling and why it’s feasible. He’s not saying that it’s going to happen and that Cape Cod will be wiped off the map lol personally, I’m worried even the run shown here may not be far enough west in the long run. Is my concern and previous discussions hype?

no lol, i was just poking at bastardi. this is nuts though. split the difference in your cone (that you mentioned) and u got a NJ/NYC landfall. Not saying it's go happen cuz i got even less of a clue than all of u but something tells me this is go be bad news for someone, and how much will he actually weaken, go take a lot to get him below major status even hitting cooler waters.

Oo ok haha and when storms get that strong, that means everything is optimal. But as soon as any one component is altered and that balance is thrown off, it doesn’t take as much to significantly impact the circulation negatively as you might think.

Rb please I right now don't want to be a hysterical mother..but my son is 4 hours away from home...15 min outside of Providence in Smithfield...can you tell me when we will have a better idea and if the ai models are right he would be in a really bad area??? You can dm me or answer in banter if you want.

Hi, mom. Unfortunately, we have a long way to go. We are approximately eight full days away from even seeing the potential approach of Lee, and a full nine days out from any possible landfall (if it’s in the Northeast). Me, personally, I would wait until at least day six, more likely day seven before I say we can really narrow down the track to within a 50-100 mile wide zone, especially with a setup as intricate as this. Right now, we all have to take a deep breath, and see how things evolve over the next several days, myself included. And that’s why I’m not commenting too much other than to offer some discussion here and there. I provided preliminary analysis, and so far, I don’t personally have much to add to it or any reason to change it. But believe me, if things change, you’ll know for now, just try to relax - A LOT can and probably will happen over the next week.

JB ain't messing around. Makes valid point meyeorlogically speaking. Rb is on tjisnas well with SROC. GFS undergoing that heatpump of the ridge.

Rb thank you ..he is there a week today and I have been good because he is happy ..but this is freaking me out. I know we need to be patient.lol my husband just said I can not panic .. thank you:

I am ready to jump in the stang and make it up there in 2 hours to get him..lol mom on a mission

weatherwatchermom wrote:Rb thank you ..he is there a week today and I have been good because he is happy ..but this is freaking me out. I know we need to be patient.lol my husband just said I can not panic .. thank you:

I am ready to jump in the stang and make it up there in 2 hours to get him..lol mom on a mission

No worries yeah, panic doesn’t do anything to help, unfortunately. It just gives you gray hair haha but, it’s always a mom’s prerogative to worry about her baby, I get it haha but yeah, we are nowhere near seeing or knowing the final outcome, so for now, try to enjoy the majesty of Mother Nature, and we will all take the hand we are dealt as the cards come make our play together

Looks like Lee has become a CAT 5 base on incoming recon data.....

Insane intensification...

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

That would crush even the tri-state area if it hit RI, the wind field will be expansive. Let the hype begin always compliments of wxbell. This cane is insane though right now.

I don’t think this is hyping at all. He offers a logical discussion of what is currently the worst case scenario as depicted by modeling and why it’s feasible. He’s not saying that it’s going to happen and that Cape Cod will be wiped off the map lol personally, I’m worried even the run shown here may not be far enough west in the long run. Is my concern and previous discussions hype?

oy not far enpugh west? So u really must be sticking to your original thpyghts which if they are right would be really bad. But agree pump brakes im just mesmerized by its current status and its currently not harming anyone but the fishes.

Joe Snow wrote:Looks like Lee has become a CAT 5 base on incoming recon data.....

Insane intensification...

theres no doubt likely a strong one too.

155kts on the last pass in the NW quadrant! Not even the strongest quadrant. Unbelievable how fast he intensified today. Truly impressive

sroc4 wrote:155kts on the last pass in the NW quadrant!  Not even the strongest quadrant. Unbelievable how fast he intensified today. Truly impressive

What is that, roughly 175 mph? And approximately 55mb drop in 16 hours? Wild. Pressure still falling, too. I think the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic was sub-900mb, though, if memory serves me correctly. So we still have a ways to go before we get there.

Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha

One thing to note with this no matter where he goes even well offshore swells and huge rip currents are going to be all up and down the east coast, at least we got labor day beach weekend in. NHC says east coast will start seeing ocean effects over the weekend.

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha

Ya but wasn't she in the GOM? Have we had a pressure sub 900mb or even close in this area of atlantic?

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha

Wilma holds the record for the fastest intensification..........

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:155kts on the last pass in the NW quadrant!  Not even the strongest quadrant. Unbelievable how fast he intensified today. Truly impressive

What is that, roughly 175 mph? And approximately 55mb drop in 16 hours? Wild. Pressure still falling, too. I think the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic was sub-900mb, though, if memory serves me correctly. So we still have a ways to go before we get there.

178.3 to be more precise. Weathermom if you’re reading agree with Ray here regarding trying your best not to worry. You will have plenty of time to work out a plan with your boy should you need to actually get him. I plan on making preparations around my house Saturday just in case. Extra propane etc. but reality it won’t be until Monday Tuesday the earliest before we really hone in on the track.