Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season

by **Joe Snow** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha

Wilma holds the record for the fastest intensification..........

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:155kts on the last pass in the NW quadrant! Not even the strongest quadrant. Unbelievable how fast he intensified today. Truly impressive

What is that, roughly 175 mph? And approximately 55mb drop in 16 hours? Wild. Pressure still falling, too. I think the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic was sub-900mb, though, if memory serves me correctly. So we still have a ways to go before we get there.

178.3 to be more precise. Weathermom if you’re reading agree with Ray here regarding trying your best not to worry. You will have plenty of time to work out a plan with your boy should you need to actually get him. I plan on making preparations around my house Saturday just in case. Extra propane etc. but reality it won’t be until Monday Tuesday the earliest before we really hone in on the track.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:155kts on the last pass in the NW quadrant! Not even the strongest quadrant. Unbelievable how fast he intensified today. Truly impressive

What is that, roughly 175 mph? And approximately 55mb drop in 16 hours? Wild. Pressure still falling, too. I think the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic was sub-900mb, though, if memory serves me correctly. So we still have a ways to go before we get there.

178.3 to be more precise. Weathermom if you’re reading agree with Ray here regarding trying your best not to worry. You will have plenty of time to work out a plan with your boy should you need to actually get him. I plan on making preparations around my house Saturday just in case. Extra propane etc. but reality it won’t be until Monday Tuesday the earliest before we really hone in on the track.

Thats the one nice thing about apartment dwelling, the only preparation you need to do is keep your cars away from trees and if winds would be more than 70-80mph (Anything Sandy like can be managed here) maybe tape the windows and def pull in window AC's. After Sandy sadly they took down most of our trees and Isiais took care of the remaining in 2020. A bit too sunny in the afternoon have to close blinds. I suppose also gasing up the car, bad part though? If power is lost theres no option for a generator. We suffered for 7 days during Sandy. Sucked.

by **rb924119** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha
Ya but wasn't she in the GOM? Have we had a pressure sub 900mb or even close in this area of atlantic?

Caribbean/Gulf, yes. But for sake of record keeping, it’s all considered the North Atlantic from what I understand. As for this particular area? I don’t know, and that would take a lot of research which I don’t have time to do haha

by **rb924119** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:25 pm

Joe Snow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha

Wilma holds the record for the fastest intensification..........

That makes sense haha

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha
Ya but wasn't she in the GOM? Have we had a pressure sub 900mb or even close in this area of atlantic?

Caribbean/Gulf, yes. But for sake of record keeping, it’s all considered the North Atlantic from what I understand. As for this particular area? I don’t know, and that would take a lot of research which I don’t have time to do haha

No, i know its all north atlantic, and ya def don't waste ur time on that. Save ur energy for potentially some intense tracking next week. IMO you never rule out a storm even if track says OTS until it is past the EC. These storms like to do funny loops and stuff.

by **rb924119** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:155kts on the last pass in the NW quadrant! Not even the strongest quadrant. Unbelievable how fast he intensified today. Truly impressive

What is that, roughly 175 mph? And approximately 55mb drop in 16 hours? Wild. Pressure still falling, too. I think the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic was sub-900mb, though, if memory serves me correctly. So we still have a ways to go before we get there.

178.3 to be more precise. Weathermom if you’re reading agree with Ray here regarding trying your best not to worry. You will have plenty of time to work out a plan with your boy should you need to actually get him. I plan on making preparations around my house Saturday just in case. Extra propane etc. but reality it won’t be until Monday Tuesday the earliest before we really hone in on the track.

Ok, Mr. Smarty Pants lol I wasn’t too far off for some quick mental math haha Mikey would be proud haha

by **rb924119** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha
Ya but wasn't she in the GOM? Have we had a pressure sub 900mb or even close in this area of atlantic?

Caribbean/Gulf, yes. But for sake of record keeping, it’s all considered the North Atlantic from what I understand. As for this particular area? I don’t know, and that would take a lot of research which I don’t have time to do haha
No, i know its all north atlantic, and ya def don't waste ur time on that. Save ur energy for potentially some intense tracking next week. IMO you never rule out a storm even if track says OTS until it is past the EC. These storms like to do funny loops and stuff.

Between tracking and possibly preparing for the worst/evacuating, yeah, I’ll probably be living on a steady stream of Bang energy drinks hahaha don’t forget, I currently live on a barrier island lol

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a MSLP of 882 mb. Went from a tropical storm to cat-5 in a day. So we aren’t there……yet haha
Ya but wasn't she in the GOM? Have we had a pressure sub 900mb or even close in this area of atlantic?

Caribbean/Gulf, yes. But for sake of record keeping, it’s all considered the North Atlantic from what I understand. As for this particular area? I don’t know, and that would take a lot of research which I don’t have time to do haha
No, i know its all north atlantic, and ya def don't waste ur time on that. Save ur energy for potentially some intense tracking next week. IMO you never rule out a storm even if track says OTS until it is past the EC. These storms like to do funny loops and stuff.

Between tracking and possibly preparing for the worst/evacuating, yeah, I’ll probably be living on a steady stream of Bang energy drinks hahaha don’t forget, I currently live on a barrier island lol

Right I did forget, no fun.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:53 pm

11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 7
Location: 17.3°N 52.4°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 928 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

WOW

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:46 am

https://www.omao.noaa.gov/ao/noaa-hurricane-hunters

I have a silly question does a storm ever become too strong or too big for the hunters to fly into? Was always curious

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:10 am

As bernie says windshield wiper especially this far out euro came very far east from yesterday missing offshore but still a close call gfs further west thsn euro and cmc hit cape cod. Up to 165mph cat 5 crazy.

by **rb924119** Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:19 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://www.omao.noaa.gov/ao/noaa-hurricane-hunters

I have a silly question does a storm ever become too strong or too big for the hunters to fly into? Was always curious

I’m not sure…..I’ve never heard of that happening before. Then again, that’s not saying much haha

by **Joe Snow** Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:20 am

5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 8
Location: 17.8°N 53.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 926 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph

by **phil155** Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:41 am

Looks to my novice eyes that the system maybe starting and eye wall replacement cycle as the eye is not as clear. Storm really ramped up rapidly yesterday

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:43 am

phil155 wrote:Looks to my novice eyes that the system maybe starting and eye wall replacement cycle as the eye is not as clear. Storm really ramped up rapidly yesterday

You beat me to it Phil. Im pretty sure you are dead on with that assessment. I was coming on to say the same thing.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

by **dkodgis** Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:26 am

So by next Wed when I move a year closer to Doc but I never seem to catch up we will see where with a better view

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:46 am

Looks like Lee may have weakened, 942mb and 120kt winds on first pass. Eyewall replacement cycle or something else impacting him? NHC says he was going to maintain cat 5 but may not be. Tack looks about the same everything still east of US, but man what a spread on the ensembles, they got no clue after he starts to turn and even when does he start to turn, I see one ensemble actually takes him to FL.

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:49 am

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like Lee may have significantly weakened, 942mb and 120kt winds on first pass. Eyewall replacement cycle or something impacting him? NHC says he was going to maintain cat 5 but may not be.

dont let the ERC fool you Jon. It will ramp right back up today. Already is with each successive pass.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 10 Recon_NOAA3-0313A-LEE_timeseries

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 10 Recon_NOAA3-0313A-LEE_timeseries

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:50 am

ERC just about complete

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:52 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Looks like Lee may have significantly weakened, 942mb and 120kt winds on first pass. Eyewall replacement cycle or something impacting him? NHC says he was going to maintain cat 5 but may not be.

dont let the ERC fool you Jon. It will ramp right back up today. Already is with each successive pass.

Figured it was ERC, I guess I am looking at the recon incorrectly what I saw was 928mb, and then up to 940, or was it the other way around 940 and now 928?

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:53 am

sroc4 wrote:ERC just about complete

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

Massive storm wow, he will be far reaching and will probably expand more once heading north so even if offshore may still be direct impacts.

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:00 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Looks like Lee may have significantly weakened, 942mb and 120kt winds on first pass. Eyewall replacement cycle or something impacting him? NHC says he was going to maintain cat 5 but may not be.

dont let the ERC fool you Jon. It will ramp right back up today. Already is with each successive pass.

Figured it was ERC, I guess I am looking at the recon incorrectly what I saw was 928mb, and then up to 940, or was it the other way around 940 and now 928?

no the ERC def cause the pressure to rise. Went from 928 to 942, but the pressure will drop again throughout the day.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:11 am

Wow, some great posts in this thread by Ray, Scott and others. Very informative and educational. I feel caught up!

If this trough over the eastern U.S. developed a few days earlier, we would be talking about a major hurricane barreling into some area along the coast...

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 10 Gfs_z500a_namer_24

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 10 Gfs_z500a_namer_24

As of now looks like the primary impact will be high surf. I think we can deal with that!

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 10 Storm_13_ens

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:15 am

Alright, this is too close for comfort
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 10 1f62e

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 10 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:18 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Alright, this is too close for comfort

There have been runs right over the cape Frank, go back and catch up more lol. Ray still believes he is a big threat to the US east coast, or at least he hasn't changed his stance yet. How you been? Wondered where you have been.

by **phil155** Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:24 am

The overall structure of the storm does not look as good as it did earlier. It almost looks to my again very novice eyes like there is some sheer or dry air impacting the east and south east portion of the system. Again just my novice observation

by Sponsored content