September Obs & Discussions

Named potential TS 16, weird. TS warnings up for carolinas to maryland, shows a weakening depression once up our way but as ray stated this has potential, especially if it stays over water.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.

Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.

I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.

So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.

Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.

I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.

So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.

I think that’s a little low, but overall a fair approximation for now

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.

Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.

I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.

So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.

I think that’s a little low, but overall a fair approximation for now

Well I mean for NYC and southern westchester, check out the 12z 3km NAM on pt with ur analysis exact stilla NC hit but dayumm on intensity, grated its the 3km pretty far out. JB of course posted the 925 mb winds which are well over 100mph...

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.

Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.

I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.

So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.

I think that’s a little low, but overall a fair approximation for now

Well I mean for NYC and southern westchester, but not if 12z 3KM NAM verified wow. check out the 12z 3km NAM on pt with ur analysis in terms of becoming a hurricane except stilla NC hit but dayumm on intensity, granted its the 3km pretty far out which is known to spit out crazy solutions. JB of course posted the 925 mb winds which are well over 100mph...and 50-75 all the way into central midaltantic well inland.

Everyone is quick to dismiss the Euro as a shell of itself. Im not so sure we should do that until perhaps Saturday. It may be off but it conts to slowly walk itself to the soln. It conts to be one of the most consistent and reliable when it comes to honing in on a soln. Other models have a much higher tendency to have much larger changes from run to run. Lets just see how this plays out first before we jump to conclusions. Just saying.

We go move this to tropics thread since its yechnically now a system on nhc? Scott ur right ladt nights euro did come west and gives 2 plus inches rain.

Get out he ark!!

Well now:

GFS Ensemble says “go home, Ray, you’re drunk” lol mean is over eastern NC, but it’s got a southwest lean. Good for us, as it would be weaker by the time it gets here, bad for my forecast.

CMC says get out the ark peeps:



It has been steadfast on this solution and has not wavered except for one run. GFS and EURO have up been up, down and all around!!

CMC = Canadian Model again holds serve - Momma Mia rain from Friday late night thorugh Monday afternoon

CMC holds serve at 12Z pic.twitter.com/gve6yk1HVU

— Al Mugno (@MugnoaAl) September 21, 2023

amugs wrote:Get out he ark!!

Interesting how that heaviest strip is so far west. We can likely handle 2-4 inches unless it comes all at once, of course in banding there will be more localized higher amounts.

It would be amazing if the CMC is the one to win this, the CMC does not usually win over the GFS and Euro, but ya mugs it has been steadfast.

Its becoming quite clear this is coming in two waves if you will.  Unfort Im posting from work so it will be hard to discuss nuance.  But there is an initial wave of PVA (positive vorticity advection), that moves north into the area ahead N&E of the main circulation.  This gives us the first wave of precip beginning early Saturday into early to maybe mid Sat afternoon.  But this area appears to get sheared out as it reaches our lat by the aforementioned area of confluence developing.  Result is what appears to be the precip shield vanish.  Thge second round comes with the main LP center tracks north and then turn's NE.  If it ends up south of LI vs N of LI the amount f precip changes.  

Euro and GFS seem to be coming to this conclusion.  Wind impacts I have not looked at

EURO comes back

Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

Sounds good, so you thinking we see that cone shift east off shore and a N to NNE movement? rather than that hook left correct?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

Sounds good, so you thinking we see that cone shift east off shore and a N to NNE movement? rather than that hook left correct?

This is a very crude approximation, but here’s my general idea on a track:



It may not get that far north, though. As I said, I think it gets to about the latitude of Sandy Hook, then turns out. But it’s close.

Given the warm water this will traverse as it develops toward the NC coast, I would certainly not be surprised to see rapid strengthening. This time of year storms always seem to rapidly intensify as they hit the warm water right off the SE coast. This one is actually developing in that warm water.
Another factor to consider as it seems almost certain that this area will get substantial rainfall no matter how this tracks, we have gotten significant rainfall in this region since Sept. 1, so waterways are running high and the ground is pretty saturated. I think the local flooding threat is pretty significant (not to mention the coastal flooding threat at high tide).

I'm hoping this storm doesn't overperform too much on the rain side like Ida; we all know how that turned out around here.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't l
ook good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.

What are your thoughts for potential wind impacts up this way (NJ and NYC metro), with the saturation you mentioned it wouldn't take much to cause some uprooting, even 40-50mph winds would be problematic, not so much if we had been dry. Do you have a updated gust map for wxbell, or anyone else? Htas a lot rain, I actually am getting thoughts of Ida rains from the way the CMC looks. ugg, I'm not sure which is worse wind damage or that kind of flooding, id say flooding.

Right now WPC has the entire east coast from carolinas to cape cod at slight risk of excessive rainfall, i think that goes much higher.