Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

MJO in the cold phases = potential Top analog is 02-03 with 76-77 mixed in and 14-15. Time will tell.

[aiannone]

We DISLIKE!

[amugs]

We DISLIKE!

A joke - they are just going with what a strong Nino seasonal for winter is showing and that's all. As are most outlets - so many factors come into play.

[dkodgis]

Monday after Thanksgiving the vlof air comes.

[Irish]

Monday after Thanksgiving the vlof air comes.

Love me some vlof! Whatever that is.

[weatherwatchermom]

Monday after Thanksgiving the vlof air comes.

Love me some vlof!  Whatever that is.

was thinking the same thing..lol hopefully its good?!!

[dkodgis]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

[heehaw453]

This is really encouraging guidance as shown on the GEFS. See the difference between this and last year. Plenty of HL blocking last year but it just linked with the SE ridge creating a ridge bridge N/S instead of E/W. Also no amplitude in the PNA domain just killed cold air transport. Only areas on east coast that could overcome that mess were interior NNE. Heck give me my 35" average spread out among DJF with near normal temps and I'll be thrilled.

[weatherwatchermom]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

[Irish]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."

[brownie]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."

I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

[sroc4]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."

Vlof should def be a word for this board.

I plan on having a few drinks tonight with my neighbors around the solo stove but it’s going to be vlof as hell tonight.

Or what is the opposite of hot?

Vlof

[JT33]

"VLOF" - Vortexically lowered oversaturated frozen

'Monday after Thanksgiving, the vlof air comes in.' - makes perfect sense now.

[dkodgis]

Vlof!  I invented it. I coined it. 

I hereby license it and its use permanently to this board and especially to the Island. Scott, I hope you drank enough around the fire and that there was plenty of vlof for all.

[Irish]

Vlof!  I invented it. I coined it. 

I hereby license it snd its use permanently to this board and especially to the Island. Scott, I hope you drank enough around the fire and that there was plenty of vlof for all.

You certainly did invent it, however, it doesn't get off the ground without me lighting this baby on fire.

Baby, it's vlof outside!

[dkodgis]

Is it pronounced

V-lof

or
"ve=LOF"

Not ready for prime time until we get this done

[sroc4]

Vlof!  I invented it. I coined it. 

I hereby license it and its use permanently to this board and especially to the Island. Scott, I hope you drank enough around the fire and that there was plenty of vlof for all.

Oh I drank plenty. So much so that I’m already in my bed lol. Love drinking with my buddies around the fire in the vlof. Even better when it’s snowing too.

[dkodgis]

My my. Tues looks like big-time rain. NWS says two inches my way. For me that means more

[docstox12]

My my. Tues looks like big-time rain. NWS says two inches my way. For me that means more

Looks like this cuts west of us and gives us rain.Noting this and will watch the next one for the track.

[heehaw453]

Nothing much changed in my thoughts. If any snow is going to be had in November I'd expect it last 3 days of the month. Some amplification in the PNA and possibly some STJ interaction with the N/S. As I said before IMO little if any snow in November and I'm interested how December shapes up. I'm a believer in early starts are usually necessary for a good snow season around here.

[sroc4]

Nothing much changed in my thoughts. If any snow is going to be had in November I'd expect it last 3 days of the month. Some amplification in the PNA and possibly some STJ interaction with the N/S. As I said before IMO little if any snow in November and I'm interested how December shapes up. I'm a believer in early starts are usually necessary for a good snow season around here.

With the exception of the first several days of Dec t looks like we might be in for a mild spell if we are to believe some of the MJO forecasts into phase 2-3-4 before possibly collapsing back into the COD.  Deeper in the winter phase 2 is cold but right now it isnt necessarily a cold phase unfort.  Same with phase 3.  Late in the season phase 3 trends colder but not yet.  The forecasts do seem to be a bit all over the place though so lets see.  Ideally we have to hope the forecast collapses the MJO pulse quicker and hopefully recirculated back out into 8-1, otherwise the time frame between say Dec 5-7th thru Dec 18-20th could be warm and boring.  Time will tell.   

[rb924119]

Nothing much changed in my thoughts. If any snow is going to be had in November I'd expect it last 3 days of the month. Some amplification in the PNA and possibly some STJ interaction with the N/S. As I said before IMO little if any snow in November and I'm interested how December shapes up. I'm a believer in early starts are usually necessary for a good snow season around here.

With the exception of the first several days of Dec t looks like we might be in for a mild spell if we are to believe some of the MJO forecasts into phase 2-3-4 before possibly collapsing back into the COD.  Deeper in the winter phase 2 is cold but right now it isnt necessarily a cold phase unfort.  Same with phase 3.  Late in the season phase 3 trends colder but not yet.  The forecasts do seem to be a bit all over the place though so lets see.  Ideally we have to hope the forecast collapses the MJO pulse quicker and hopefully recirculated back out into 8-1, otherwise the time frame between say Dec 5-7th thru Dec 18-20th could be warm and boring.  Time will tell.   

I don’t think the MJO ever gets into phase 4, and I think it should decay once into phase 3. We should then see it restrengthen in phases 1 and 2, to repeat a decay in phase 3 again later in the month. So, I think we see a period of intermission/flux between above and below average temperatures for about a week, maybe up to two weeks, but I don’t think it results in any significant period of sustained above average temperatures. I think it just resets.

[amugs]

MJO wave has been suppressed when it gets to phase 3 and hopefully should continue to do so.

[jmanley32]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."

I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

It actually does stand for something. In aviation is means "lift off speed." I seen you continue to have that happen every popst you try to write cold in, maybe its a syntax prank lol

Edit, did not read the rest of the BANTER in long range, hey just calling it like it is haha. You all are too funny.

[Irish]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."

I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

It actually does stand for something. In aviation is means "lift off speed." I seen you continue to have that happen every popst you try to write cold in, maybe its a syntax prank lol

Edit, did not read the rest of the BANTER in long range, hey just calling it like it is haha. You all are too funny.

In all actuality it's probably just him fat-fingering cold. The v is right next to c, he's typing to quickly and switching the l and o and then the f is right next to the d.

[jmanley32]

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."

I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

It actually does stand for something. In aviation is means "lift off speed." I seen you continue to have that happen every popst you try to write cold in, maybe its a syntax prank lol

Edit, did not read the rest of the BANTER in long range, hey just calling it like it is haha. You all are too funny.

In all actuality it's probably just him fat-fingering cold. The v is right next to c, he's typing to quickly and switching the l and o and then the f is right next to the d.

I know that all to well, i really liked when phones had actual buttons. I had that sliding sideways one, i forget what it was called but it was great.

[rb924119]

December 5th-9th period may be the next one to watch for an another legitimate shot at a winter storm, folks, but I have to investigate further.

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