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Long Range Thread 27.0

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by amugs Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:32 am

MJO in the cold phases = potential Top analog is 02-03 with 76-77 mixed in and 14-15. Time will tell.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 GEFS_BC

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by aiannone Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:51 am

We DISLIKE!
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Captur17

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 17, 2023 1:14 pm

aiannone wrote:We DISLIKE!
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Captur17

A joke - they are just going with what a strong Nino seasonal for winter is showing and that's all. As are most outlets - so many factors come into play.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by dkodgis Sat Nov 18, 2023 9:23 am

Monday after Thanksgiving the vlof air comes.
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Post by Irish Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:25 pm

dkodgis wrote:Monday after Thanksgiving the vlof air comes.

Love me some vlof! Whatever that is.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:35 pm

Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Monday after Thanksgiving the vlof air comes.

Love me some vlof!  Whatever that is.
was thinking the same thing..lol hopefully its good?!!
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Post by dkodgis Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:43 pm

Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:20 pm

This is really encouraging guidance as shown on the GEFS. See the difference between this and last year. Plenty of HL blocking last year but it just linked with the SE ridge creating a ridge bridge N/S instead of E/W. Also no amplitude in the PNA domain just killed cold air transport. Only areas on east coast that could overcome that mess were interior NNE. Heck give me my 35" average spread out among DJF with near normal temps and I'll be thrilled.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Gefs75
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 500mb211

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:31 pm

dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:41 pm

dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by brownie Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:56 pm

Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."
I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:52 pm

Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."


lol! lol! lol!


Vlof should def be a word for this board.

I plan on having a few drinks tonight with my neighbors around the solo stove but it’s going to be vlof as hell tonight.

Or what is the opposite of hot?

Vlof


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by JT33 Sun Nov 19, 2023 1:56 pm

"VLOF" - Vortexically lowered oversaturated frozen

'Monday after Thanksgiving, the vlof air comes in.' - makes perfect sense now.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by dkodgis Sun Nov 19, 2023 5:34 pm

Vlof!  I invented it. I coined it. 

I hereby license it and its use permanently to this board and especially to the Island. Scott, I hope you drank enough around the fire and that there was plenty of vlof for all.


Last edited by dkodgis on Sun Nov 19, 2023 7:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Sun Nov 19, 2023 5:44 pm

dkodgis wrote:Vlof!  I invented it. I coined it. 

I hereby license it snd its use permanently to this board and especially to the Island. Scott, I hope you drank enough around the fire and that there was plenty of vlof for all.

You certainly did invent it, however, it doesn't get off the ground without me lighting this baby on fire.

Baby, it's vlof outside!
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by dkodgis Sun Nov 19, 2023 7:02 pm

Is it pronounced

V-lof

or
"ve=LOF"

Not ready for prime time until we get this done
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 19, 2023 8:29 pm

dkodgis wrote:Vlof!  I invented it. I coined it. 

I hereby license it and its use permanently to this board and especially to the Island. Scott, I hope you drank enough around the fire and that there was plenty of vlof for all.


Oh I drank plenty. So much so that I’m already in my bed lol. Love drinking with my buddies around the fire in the vlof. Even better when it’s snowing too.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by dkodgis Sun Nov 19, 2023 9:35 pm

My my. Tues looks like big-time rain. NWS says two inches my way. For me that means more
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 20, 2023 6:00 am

dkodgis wrote:My my. Tues looks like big-time rain. NWS says two inches my way. For me that means more

Looks like this cuts west of us and gives us rain.Noting this and will watch the next one for the track.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Nov 21, 2023 12:27 pm

Nothing much changed in my thoughts. If any snow is going to be had in November I'd expect it last 3 days of the month. Some amplification in the PNA and possibly some STJ interaction with the N/S. As I said before IMO little if any snow in November and I'm interested how December shapes up. I'm a believer in early starts are usually necessary for a good snow season around here.


Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Gefs217

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 21, 2023 12:44 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Nothing much changed in my thoughts. If any snow is going to be had in November I'd expect it last 3 days of the month. Some amplification in the PNA and possibly some STJ interaction with the N/S. As I said before IMO little if any snow in November and I'm interested how December shapes up. I'm a believer in early starts are usually necessary for a good snow season around here.


Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Gefs217

With the exception of the first several days of Dec t looks like we might be in for a mild spell if we are to believe some of the MJO forecasts into phase 2-3-4 before possibly collapsing back into the COD.  Deeper in the winter phase 2 is cold but right now it isnt necessarily a cold phase unfort.  Same with phase 3.  Late in the season phase 3 trends colder but not yet.  The forecasts do seem to be a bit all over the place though so lets see.  Ideally we have to hope the forecast collapses the MJO pulse quicker and hopefully recirculated back out into 8-1, otherwise the time frame between say Dec 5-7th thru Dec 18-20th could be warm and boring.  Time will tell.   


Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Combined_image

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 GEFS_BC
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 ECMF_BC

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WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 21, 2023 3:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Nothing much changed in my thoughts. If any snow is going to be had in November I'd expect it last 3 days of the month. Some amplification in the PNA and possibly some STJ interaction with the N/S. As I said before IMO little if any snow in November and I'm interested how December shapes up. I'm a believer in early starts are usually necessary for a good snow season around here.


Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Gefs217

With the exception of the first several days of Dec t looks like we might be in for a mild spell if we are to believe some of the MJO forecasts into phase 2-3-4 before possibly collapsing back into the COD.  Deeper in the winter phase 2 is cold but right now it isnt necessarily a cold phase unfort.  Same with phase 3.  Late in the season phase 3 trends colder but not yet.  The forecasts do seem to be a bit all over the place though so lets see.  Ideally we have to hope the forecast collapses the MJO pulse quicker and hopefully recirculated back out into 8-1, otherwise the time frame between say Dec 5-7th thru Dec 18-20th could be warm and boring.  Time will tell.   


Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Combined_image

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 GEFS_BC
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 ECMF_BC

I don’t think the MJO ever gets into phase 4, and I think it should decay once into phase 3. We should then see it restrengthen in phases 1 and 2, to repeat a decay in phase 3 again later in the month. So, I think we see a period of intermission/flux between above and below average temperatures for about a week, maybe up to two weeks, but I don’t think it results in any significant period of sustained above average temperatures. I think it just resets.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:25 pm

MJO wave has been suppressed when it gets to phase 3 and hopefully should continue to do so.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 21, 2023 8:31 pm

brownie wrote:
Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."
I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

It actually does stand for something. In aviation is means "lift off speed." I seen you continue to have that happen every popst you try to write cold in, maybe its a syntax prank lol

Edit, did not read the rest of the BANTER in long range, hey just calling it like it is haha. You all are too funny.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Tue Nov 21, 2023 9:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
brownie wrote:
Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."
I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

It actually does stand for something. In aviation is means "lift off speed." I seen you continue to have that happen every popst you try to write cold in, maybe its a syntax prank lol

Edit, did not read the rest of the BANTER in long range, hey just calling it like it is haha. You all are too funny.

In all actuality it's probably just him fat-fingering cold. The v is right next to c, he's typing to quickly and switching the l and o and then the f is right next to the d.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 21, 2023 9:56 pm

Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
brownie wrote:
Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."
I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

It actually does stand for something. In aviation is means "lift off speed." I seen you continue to have that happen every popst you try to write cold in, maybe its a syntax prank lol

Edit, did not read the rest of the BANTER in long range, hey just calling it like it is haha. You all are too funny.

In all actuality it's probably just him fat-fingering cold. The v is right next to c, he's typing to quickly and switching the l and o and then the f is right next to the d.
I know that all to well, i really liked when phones had actual buttons. I had that sliding sideways one, i forget what it was called but it was great.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 23, 2023 12:12 pm

December 5th-9th period may be the next one to watch for an another legitimate shot at a winter storm, folks, but I have to investigate further.

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