Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

You all must realize that we have to get tomorrow system out of the way so models can then key on the next one. Same happened with tomorrows with Friday/Saturday system. There are so many moving parts and so much energy flying around the base of the PV that they cannot key in on the mid range let alone LR storms.

Lastly, NW trend has been the norm ALL winter long and why? This.
SE Atlantic Gyration - been here all winter and is locked in.

[billg315]

Given the recent pattern of us getting storms every Friday into Saturday I'll place my money on us getting the Friday-Saturday storm in some form. Once we get locked into one of those redundant patterns they often persist for a few weeks. This time the cold air will be abundant. Will be a question of exactly what we get.

[amugs]

H2re your NW trend occurring as I post this. Watch this increase once this coastal gets out of here.

[sroc4]

End of its range but extrapolating that’s a phenomenal look for the Friday system.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

D

[amugs]

OH CANADA - just gave us a very close Mr. G.


That's exactly what we want at this range and let this one move out before we hone in on Friday starting at 12Z tomorrow.

[heehaw453]

The Canadian is showing what I believe is the best chance for something more sig Friday. More consolidated s/w energy and because of it the 500mb trough turns negative as it hits the coast. It's the ULL bowling ball rolling underneath you that works.  Unfortunately Euro/GFS don't agree yet and have ULL energy spread out which looks more like spaghetti than a meatball. So then the surface low is weak and just meanders a bit. Until agreement comes in I would be cautious about getting hopes up. They'll be some snow, but how much depends on consolidation...

[Carvin]

I think this one coming on Friday would be more on the order of 3-6 4-8 around nyc metro

[jmanley32]

I hope so! Where we at with this now?

[MattyICE]

Very little global Op or Ens support for Friday. NAM and RGEM say maybe. Today would be the day as this current storm clears out to see positive trends if they are going to start at all

[Frank_Wx]

The Canadian is showing what I believe is the best chance for something more sig Friday. More consolidated s/w energy and because of it the 500mb trough turns negative as it hits the coast. It's the ULL bowling ball rolling underneath you that works.  Unfortunately Euro/GFS don't agree yet and have ULL energy spread out which looks more like spaghetti than a meatball. So then the surface low is weak and just meanders a bit. Until agreement comes in I would be cautious about getting hopes up. They'll be some snow, but how much depends on consolidation...

Impressed with the spaghetti and meatball analogy

[heehaw453]

Very little global Op or Ens support for Friday. NAM and RGEM say maybe. Today would be the day as this current storm clears out to see positive trends if they are going to start at all

06Z Euro. It's not far off from something bigger here. A bit more consolidation and digging of the trough, then you'd have something as the trough would go negative and capture the midlevels.

[Irish]

RGEM

[heehaw453]

FWIW the 12Z Icon is more in the Canadian camp with a digging and consolidated trough going negative as it hits the coast. We're D3 now so if changes are going to happen you will start to see more consensus really soon IMO.

[heehaw453]

12Z GFS closer still. It seems the h5 is going squeeze the energy IMO. You have western ridge, Atlantic ridge, 50/50 trough. Where can this go in a hurry? If the phasing is right this will trend a good way IMO.

edit: A little better spacing on the 50/50 would give it more room to breathe too. That might be the key to this actually.

[sroc4]

GEM holds for the most part. Conts to insist on a well organized storm. How close to the coast can it get? CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.

[Frank_Wx]

I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out

[jmanley32]

GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

hey scott back from my banishment to banter lol. Does thishave a much higher potential thsn today?

[heehaw453]

You can add the 12Z Ukie to the more aggressive camp too. Again at D3 operational runs should start adjusting soon. I'd be skeptical of any surface maps that show a benign event for an ULL sliding underneath and tilting its 500mb trough negative before hitting the coast. Capturing midlevel energy close enough to coast can do wonders.

[Irish]

I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out

Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

[sroc4]

I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out

Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.

[Dunnzoo]

I'm just hoping for very little or a later start Friday (in the afternoon). Mom has a flight out of Newark to Florida at 2:30. Can't have my 88 yo mom sitting in the airport all day hoping to get out! It can snow all it wants after 2 pm!

[Irish]

I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out

Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.

Ugh, that's rough. So, we'd much rather not have an inverted trough.

[heehaw453]

The 12Z Euro is sooo close to being so much better. If this ULL just gets a better phase/consolidation it'd be game on as the trough would tip more negative and capture the mid-level energy in time for a good event. If we miss by an inch I'd rather miss by a mile.


Mid levels powder keg



ULL just a hair too disjoint as it's approaching the coast

[sroc4]

The 12Z Euro is sooo close to being so much better. If this ULL just gets a better phase/consolidation it'd be game on as the trough would tip more negative and capture the mid-level energy in time for a good event. If we miss by an inch I'd rather miss by a mile.


Mid levels powder keg



ULL just a hair too disjoint as it's approaching the coast

Remember Euro likes to walk itself back to its final soln. I like the steps at H5 and the surface. Last 4 consecutive runs the surface low has ticked back NW each time.

[sroc4]

I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out

Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.

Ugh, that's rough. So, we'd much rather not have an inverted trough.

We could have both!

[Frank_Wx]

Every model has a minimum snow accumulation of 1” for Friday. The current max depending on the model is about 5”. If the trends continue at 500mb, these numbers will go way up.

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