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Long Range Thread 27.0

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:15 pm

You all must realize that we have to get tomorrow system out of the way so models can then key on the next one. Same happened with tomorrows with Friday/Saturday system. There are so many moving parts and so much energy flying around the base of the PV that they cannot key in on the mid range let alone LR storms.

Lastly, NW trend has been the norm ALL winter long and why? This.
SE Atlantic Gyration - been here all winter and is locked in.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 GD6Ig0tWYAAFlJn?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:35 pm

Given the recent pattern of us getting storms every Friday into Saturday I'll place my money on us getting the Friday-Saturday storm in some form. Once we get locked into one of those redundant patterns they often persist for a few weeks. This time the cold air will be abundant. Will be a question of exactly what we get.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:40 pm

H2re your NW trend occurring as I post this. Watch this increase once this coastal gets out of here.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Gfs-en12

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:46 pm

End of its range but extrapolating that’s a phenomenal look for the Friday system.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Screen12

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:24 pm

D


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:25 pm

OH CANADA - just gave us a very close Mr. G.
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 1705687200-vjIcw30f4ho

That's exactly what we want at this range and let this one move out before we hone in on Friday starting at 12Z tomorrow.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:38 am

The Canadian is showing what I believe is the best chance for something more sig Friday. More consolidated s/w energy and because of it the 500mb trough turns negative as it hits the coast. It's the ULL bowling ball rolling underneath you that works.  Unfortunately Euro/GFS don't agree yet and have ULL energy spread out which looks more like spaghetti than a meatball. So then the surface low is weak and just meanders a bit. Until agreement comes in I would be cautious about getting hopes up. They'll be some snow, but how much depends on consolidation...

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Ull211
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Ull111

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Carvin Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:42 am

I think this one coming on Friday would be more on the order of 3-6 4-8 around nyc metro

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:40 am

I hope so! Where we at with this now?
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by MattyICE Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:54 am

Very little global Op or Ens support for Friday. NAM and RGEM say maybe. Today would be the day as this current storm clears out to see positive trends if they are going to start at all

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:36 am

heehaw453 wrote:The Canadian is showing what I believe is the best chance for something more sig Friday. More consolidated s/w energy and because of it the 500mb trough turns negative as it hits the coast. It's the ULL bowling ball rolling underneath you that works.  Unfortunately Euro/GFS don't agree yet and have ULL energy spread out which looks more like spaghetti than a meatball. So then the surface low is weak and just meanders a bit. Until agreement comes in I would be cautious about getting hopes up. They'll be some snow, but how much depends on consolidation...

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Ull211
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Ull111

Impressed with the spaghetti and meatball analogy

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:39 am

MattyICE wrote:Very little global Op or Ens support for Friday. NAM and RGEM say maybe. Today would be the day as this current storm clears out to see positive trends if they are going to start at all

06Z Euro. It's not far off from something bigger here. A bit more consolidation and digging of the trough, then you'd have something as the trough would go negative and capture the midlevels.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Euro0614

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:44 am

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Rgem_m10

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:39 am

FWIW the 12Z Icon is more in the Canadian camp with a digging and consolidated trough going negative as it hits the coast. We're D3 now so if changes are going to happen you will start to see more consensus really soon IMO.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12zico10

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:14 am

12Z GFS closer still. It seems the h5 is going squeeze the energy IMO. You have western ridge, Atlantic ridge, 50/50 trough. Where can this go in a hurry? If the phasing is right this will trend a good way IMO.

edit: A little better spacing on the 50/50 would give it more room to breathe too. That might be the key to this actually.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Gfs12z14

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:48 am

GEM holds for the most part. Conts to insist on a well organized storm. How close to the coast can it get? CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 1705665600-eO5RwLXdfcE

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:17 pm

I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 1705665600-eO5RwLXdfcE
hey scott back from my banishment to banter lol. Does thishave a much higher potential thsn today?
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:29 pm

You can add the 12Z Ukie to the more aggressive camp too. Again at D3 operational runs should start adjusting soon. I'd be skeptical of any surface maps that show a benign event for an ULL sliding underneath and tilting its 500mb trough negative before hitting the coast. Capturing midlevel energy close enough to coast can do wonders.




Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12zuki10

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out
Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:33 pm

Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out
Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:39 pm

I'm just hoping for very little or a later start Friday (in the afternoon). Mom has a flight out of Newark to Florida at 2:30. Can't have my 88 yo mom sitting in the airport all day hoping to get out! It can snow all it wants after 2 pm!

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:05 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out
Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.
Ugh, that's rough. So, we'd much rather not have an inverted trough.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:27 pm

The 12Z Euro is sooo close to being so much better. If this ULL just gets a better phase/consolidation it'd be game on as the trough would tip more negative and capture the mid-level energy in time for a good event. If we miss by an inch I'd rather miss by a mile.


Mid levels powder keg

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12euro11

ULL just a hair too disjoint as it's approaching the coast
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12euro10

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12euro12

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:33 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z Euro is sooo close to being so much better. If this ULL just gets a better phase/consolidation it'd be game on as the trough would tip more negative and capture the mid-level energy in time for a good event. If we miss by an inch I'd rather miss by a mile.


Mid levels powder keg

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12euro11

ULL just a hair too disjoint as it's approaching the coast
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12euro10

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 12euro12

Remember Euro likes to walk itself back to its final soln. I like the steps at H5 and the surface. Last 4 consecutive runs the surface low has ticked back NW each time.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 39 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:34 pm

Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out
Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.
Ugh, that's rough. So, we'd much rather not have an inverted trough.

We could have both!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:49 pm

Every model has a minimum snow accumulation of 1” for Friday. The current max depending on the model is about 5”. If the trends continue at 500mb, these numbers will go way up.

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