Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[dkodgis]

Small amplification above I95

[heehaw453]

I think the 12Z Canadian Global has the right idea with the track. There will be some resistance to pull north due to the TPV and the storm is not going to want to go into that resistance, but avoid it. I see slightly inside BM track but not coastal hugger like some of the meso's are showing.  That being the case the immediate Jersey Shore will mix due to an easterly fetch but if that gets to I95 I have doubts. Just think the Canadian has been making most sense.

[Irish]

I'm reading that next Friday's event is likely much stronger than Monday into Tuesday's.

[heehaw453]

I'm reading that next Friday's event is likely much stronger than Monday into Tuesday's.

Synoptically it has way more upside than Tuesday.

[Koroptim]

I appreciate everyone’s efforts on this board, but am officially giving up on this winter and no longer paying attention to anything outside of the accuweather app. I cannot stand squabbling over nuisance 2 inch snows and chasing day 10 opportunities. I’d rather be surprised with anything that happens than torturing myself for another two months like the past few years. Good luck to all

[heehaw453]

I appreciate everyone’s efforts on this board, but am officially giving up on this winter and no longer paying attention to anything outside of the accuweather app.  I cannot stand squabbling over nuisance 2 inch snows and chasing day 10 opportunities.   I’d rather be surprised with anything that happens than torturing myself for another two months like the past few years.   Good luck to all

thanks but the board IMO is for learning and respectful disagreements foster that. Frustrations over futility the last 2 years is absolutely understandable. Everyone should be skeptical of big snows until you see it pile up in your back yard.

[MattyICE]

Agree with a lot of the ideas here. This really can’t be more than an inch or two along and SE of 95. The colder solutions go hand in hand with being weaker/ more progressive and thus, less qpf. As Hee indicated, things can amp, but if they do the increase in QPF ups things mostly NW of 95 bringing in mixing to 95. If there were good confluence trending better in time at the same time as an amped trend then we’d be talking a different story. Just don’t see that setup here - kind of frustrating that the wish for colder air in this case also means less snow.

[sroc4]

Agree with a lot of the ideas here. This really can’t be more than an inch or two along and SE of 95. The colder solutions go hand in hand with being weaker/ more progressive and thus, less qpf. As Hee indicated, things can amp, but if they do the increase in QPF ups things mostly NW of 95 bringing in mixing to 95. If there were good confluence trending better in time at the same time as an amped trend then we’d be talking a different story. Just don’t see that setup here - kind of frustrating that the wish for colder air in this case also means less snow.

Depends on when the enhancement comes. Once it’s past Montauk and the cape winds shift and the air to the north is plenty cold.

[MattyICE]

Agree with a lot of the ideas here. This really can’t be more than an inch or two along and SE of 95. The colder solutions go hand in hand with being weaker/ more progressive and thus, less qpf. As Hee indicated, things can amp, but if they do the increase in QPF ups things mostly NW of 95 bringing in mixing to 95. If there were good confluence trending better in time at the same time as an amped trend then we’d be talking a different story. Just don’t see that setup here - kind of frustrating that the wish for colder air in this case also means less snow.

Depends on when the enhancement comes. Once it’s past Montauk and the cape winds shift and the air to the north is plenty cold.

Totally true. I just think that happens too late for most here, but would be thrilled to be wrong!

[sroc4]

I appreciate everyone’s efforts on this board, but am officially giving up on this winter and no longer paying attention to anything outside of the accuweather app.  I cannot stand squabbling over nuisance 2 inch snows and chasing day 10 opportunities.   I’d rather be surprised with anything that happens than torturing myself for another two months like the past few years.   Good luck to all

The only ones squabbling over 2” are those who whine that it’s not 12” in their back yard. I swear people see one model run showing 12” in a snowmap; then turn tail if it’s anything but. Like heehaw noted in his response most of what we do here is about the thrill of the tracking, learning about how it all works, and the comradery of it all. The end result is only a small piece of it. At least for me. Of course we all want the goods. But it is what it is. 2” or 12” I love when it snows. If you can’t handle the discussion about what could be in the 10day because of the disappointment of not getting what you want more times than not I certainly understand that. To each his and her own.

If anyone cares to respond to this please do so in banter where Jon now lives.

[SENJsnowman]

Today's 12z GFS, total snowfall forecast through Saturday early morning. I would put the chances of this significantly materializing at 30-35% right now. But wow, now that I think about it, that % really does stoke my fire, but that's just me...



For right now, I'm just here to Track!

[heehaw453]

Today's 12z GFS, total snowfall forecast through Saturday early morning. I would put the chances of this significantly materializing at 30-35% right now. But wow, now that I think about it, that % really does stoke my fire, but that's just me...



For right now, I'm just here to Track!

12Z Euro went a bit ballistic similar to what 12Z GFS showed. 5 Days out lots can change, but synoptically it has a chance if the trough can dig enough. The Atlantic bottleneck is the key.

[heehaw453]

The 18Z NAM placing the mid-level energy I think closer to reality and much better for I95.  I'll be interested to see if the RGEM does so too.

[Frank_Wx]

Thread for Tuesday is posted

[jmanley32]

Today's 12z GFS, total snowfall forecast through Saturday early morning. I would put the chances of this significantly materializing at 30-35% right now. But wow, now that I think about it, that % really does stoke my fire, but that's just me...



For right now, I'm just here to Track!

12Z Euro went a bit ballistic similar to what 12Z GFS showed. 5 Days out lots can change, but synoptically it has a chance if the trough can dig enough. The Atlantic bottleneck is the key.

you go say that and not show a snow map? lol, pleaze post. Just for fun or in banter.

[Frank_Wx]

EPS H5 valid Friday morning. Signature +PNA allows pacific energy to dive into the central US. The million dollar question will be if we can get the phase to happen with the northern branch. We have a piece of the Polar Vortex stationed in southern Canada. We need to see if we can get it to phase (or eject a piece of northern stream energy). I would have liked to see more of a -NAO in this setup, but this remains a pattern that can absolutely produce if the pieces come together.

[heehaw453]

If this trough can dig and the ULL slides underneath us it will produce something IMO. It might not be blockbuster stuff, but the Atlantic is bottlenecked and if the h5 captures offshore midlevel energy in time that is powder keg city. The trough must go neutral and then negative before it hits the coast as shown by the 06Z Euro Control. If that happens it'll produce.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Today's 12z GFS, total snowfall forecast through Saturday early morning. I would put the chances of this significantly materializing at 30-35% right now. But wow, now that I think about it, that % really does stoke my fire, but that's just me...



For right now, I'm just here to Track!

Would like to see this without tonight and tomorrows totals included. Would still be a good hit, not quite as dramatic.

[heehaw453]

12Z Canadian GEM h5 works for me. The ULL getting shoved underneath and hitting an Atlantic bottleneck. These kinds of setups can be very surprising upside. Not exactly same but the bottom h5 is February 1-3 2021 that dropped 18" in Central Park. Not saying that is going to happen here, but this favors some snowfall IMO.

[sroc4]

12Z Canadian GEM h5 works for me. The ULL getting shoved underneath and hitting an Atlantic bottleneck. These kinds of setups can be very surprising upside. Not exactly same but the bottom h5 is February 1-3 2021 that dropped 18" in Central Park. Not saying that is going to happen here, but this favors some snowfall IMO.

I like where we are at for Fridays storm. A tad SE but the trend seems to be to bring it back NW a little as we get inside 3days. I love that there is a really nice HP with this one at least as currently modeled.

[heehaw453]

12Z Euro is an absolute powder keg of mid-level energy off the coast on Friday. Really have to watch this one IMO with the plugged up Atlantic...

[SENJsnowman]

HeeHaw, on behalf of myself and my fellow Coasties, any early concerns for a tucked track or warmer levels indicated?

[heehaw453]

HeeHaw, on behalf of myself and my fellow Coasties, any early concerns for a tucked track or warmer levels indicated?

Synoptically this has the ingredients for a sig event right to the beaches. You have fresh cold air being pumped in by a strong H to the north and the blocked up Atlantic. Enough ridging in the west to make a digging trough feasible. But I'm not all in yet because I need to see the trough dig and tilt negative consistently run2run. If that happens it's game on especially in your area.

[SENJsnowman]

HeeHaw, on behalf of myself and my fellow Coasties, any early concerns for a tucked track or warmer levels indicated?

Synoptically this has the ingredients for an sig event right to the beaches. You have fresh cold air being pumped in by a strong H to the north and the blocked up Atlantic. Enough ridging in the west to make a digging trough feasible. But I'm not all in yet because I need to see the trough dig and tilt negative consistently run2run. If that happens it's game on especially in your area.

[Frank_Wx]

It’s going to be a nail biting week of tracking Fridays potential storm. There is Godzilla potential here, and even if we don’t see a phase, I think the mid Atlantic and SNJ will be in for a nice event in the form of an inverted trough.



Because of how “blocky” the North Atlantic into Greenland is, the initial Pacific energy hits a brick wall once it reaches the east coast. This allows a secondary piece of pacific energy to catch up to it and form a deep trough over the eastern US. What’s missing is the phase with the northern stream, but you can see it’s close and the pieces are all there. I feel strongly that the PNA and EPO ridges will work in our favor and eventually show the phase we need. I think we need to give it to tomorrow night or Wednesday. Let’s see

[amugs]

You all must realize that we have to get tomorrow system out of the way so models can then key on the next one. Same happened with tomorrows with Friday/Saturday system. There are so many moving parts and so much energy flying around the base of the PV that they cannot key in on the mid range let alone LR storms.

Lastly, NW trend has been the norm ALL winter long and why? This.
SE Atlantic Gyration - been here all winter and is locked in.

[billg315]

Given the recent pattern of us getting storms every Friday into Saturday I'll place my money on us getting the Friday-Saturday storm in some form. Once we get locked into one of those redundant patterns they often persist for a few weeks. This time the cold air will be abundant. Will be a question of exactly what we get.

[Sponsored content]