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November 2023 Observations and Discussion

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Frank_Wx
frank 638
phil155
rb924119
MattyICE
jmanley32
heehaw453
Radz
dkodgis
amugs
Dunnzoo
kalleg
docstox12
1190ftalt
weatherwatchermom
sroc4
aiannone
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:23 pm

Good to see some folks get on the board. This storm had a very cold air antecedent air mass but most of the colder air was confined to the I90 corridor and very elevated areas. Interior SNE/CNE locations picked up a general 2-4". I'm sure Hunter saw at least that due to elevation.

Central Park still yet to hit freezing, but it's likely it will be > 1 below normal for November. That will change on Friday night/Saturday morning as temps dip below freezing in the city. 

Climo says coastal plain doesn't get its first measurable snowfall until mid December. IMBY I usually get measurable snowfall in November. We wait and see...

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Post by frank 638 Thu Nov 23, 2023 8:54 am

Happy thanksgiving everyone 🦃🍁🍂

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Post by dkodgis Thu Nov 23, 2023 8:59 am

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Img_5010
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Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 23, 2023 12:01 pm

The threat for the 27th is alive and well folks. Don’t be surprised if the models start picking up on the white, as opposed to wet threat, especially for anybody north and west if I-287, in the coming days. I fully expect a colder/more consolidated trend with this one as we get closer. Whether or not it will be enough to get everybody in the game, I’m not sure. But I think some of us will definitely see an accumulating snow out of it.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Nov 24, 2023 9:29 am

rb924119 wrote:The threat for the 27th is alive and well folks. Don’t be surprised if the models start picking up on the white, as opposed to wet threat, especially for anybody north and west if I-287, in the coming days. I fully expect a colder/more consolidated trend with this one as we get closer. Whether or not it will be enough to get everybody in the game, I’m not sure. But I think some of us will definitely see an accumulating snow out of it.
The 500mb does suggest the storm should amp up and move slowly once doing so, but my thought is it does so a bit too far north for most folks around here. I just think there's not much cold air to work with at the onset and this will deepen as it gets past our latitude advecting the cold air behind it. Maybe elevated areas get something? But I think for most folks a cold rain incoming...


November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 500mb19

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Midlev14

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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 24, 2023 10:01 am

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:The threat for the 27th is alive and well folks. Don’t be surprised if the models start picking up on the white, as opposed to wet threat, especially for anybody north and west if I-287, in the coming days. I fully expect a colder/more consolidated trend with this one as we get closer. Whether or not it will be enough to get everybody in the game, I’m not sure. But I think some of us will definitely see an accumulating snow out of it.
The 500mb does suggest the storm should amp up and move slowly once doing so, but my thought is it does so a bit too far north for most folks around here. I just think there's not much cold air to work with at the onset and this will deepen as it gets past our latitude advecting the cold air behind it. Maybe elevated areas get something? But I think for most folks a cold rain incoming...


November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 500mb19

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Midlev14

Beat me to it Haw. Just not seeing enough at 500 to warrant overt optimism for much of our coverage area with this one. There is too much disorganized lead vorticity for an initial wave of cold novermver rain and like mentioned the northern energy drops in too late. Northern NE may see a doozy and I guess perhaps there is still a little time for some of the higher elevations to get in on some flakes but overall it appears a cold Novermer rain is on the way.


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Post by amugs Fri Nov 24, 2023 10:28 am

BRRR tonight peeps!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 F_tOgMAXwAAfquK?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Nov 24, 2023 2:55 pm

Nice day today, hit 50* for a little bit, got outside to decorate a little before we hit up the leftovers. Hope everyone had a good day yesterday!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:59 pm

46* mowed lawn last time which in turn  took care of the last  leaves...but ooh got chilly at the end there sunset was beautiful.


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Fri Nov 24, 2023 9:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by frank 638 Fri Nov 24, 2023 5:03 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:46* mowed lawn last time which in turn  took care of the last  leave...but ooh got chilly at the end there sunset was beautiful.
yes getting chilly 🥶 today. I did my Christmas shopping and I just finished putting up my Christmas lights

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Nov 24, 2023 9:04 pm

frank 638 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:46* mowed lawn last time which in turn  took care of the last  leave...but ooh got chilly at the end there sunset was beautiful.
yes getting chilly 🥶 today. I did my Christmas shopping and I just finished putting up my Christmas lights

oh I got the shopping done as well..lol online and a little local after going out to dinner tonight..full day...tom I will start decorating.

Currently 37* winds at 20+ and the real feel is 19* I keep looking at Tues..husband going to freeze his hiney off with the boat winterization..I told him to pull it last weekend.. Rolling Eyes
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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 25, 2023 4:22 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:The threat for the 27th is alive and well folks. Don’t be surprised if the models start picking up on the white, as opposed to wet threat, especially for anybody north and west if I-287, in the coming days. I fully expect a colder/more consolidated trend with this one as we get closer. Whether or not it will be enough to get everybody in the game, I’m not sure. But I think some of us will definitely see an accumulating snow out of it.
The 500mb does suggest the storm should amp up and move slowly once doing so, but my thought is it does so a bit too far north for most folks around here. I just think there's not much cold air to work with at the onset and this will deepen as it gets past our latitude advecting the cold air behind it. Maybe elevated areas get something? But I think for most folks a cold rain incoming...


November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 500mb19

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Midlev14

Beat me to it Haw. Just not seeing enough at 500 to warrant overt optimism for much of our coverage area with this one.  There is too much disorganized lead vorticity for an initial wave of cold novermver rain and like mentioned the northern energy drops in too late. Northern NE may see a doozy and I guess perhaps there is still a little time for some of the higher elevations to get in on some flakes but overall it appears a cold Novermer rain is on the way.


Don’t get me wrong, fellas, I’m not saying everybody is gonna get snow, but I think those of us north and west of 287 (maybe I-80) have a legitimate shot at seeing some accumulation out of this. I wanted to make a video to explain, but I don’t think that I’ll have the time, so I’ll try to succinctly explain lol

Firstly, the overall pattern in the Northern Hemisphere strongly supports this trending colder, as we have the following factors favoring it:

-pseudo -NAO and 50/50 couplet
-70/70 ridge
-negative EPO
-positive PNA

We also have favorable tropics:

-negative SOI
-MJO phase

The ENSO state is neutral, in my opinion, as regions 1.2 and 3.4 are essential equally warm (anomaly-wise), however, we do have the anomalous warmth in the Gulf and Atlantic. The AO is essentially neutral, again, my opinion, and the WPO is positive. So, the warmth in the Gulf and Atlantic, and the positive WPO are not enough to resist the push from the trough coming into the eastern CONUS, in my opinion, which is why I like a colder trend here. This would thereby also support a faster and stronger northern stream system and earlier interaction with the lead wave, i.e. earlier injection of fresh cold air, into the lead system.

Additionally, I do not agree that the secondary low will be as late to bloom as guidance is suggesting when I look at the details. If you look at the following starting on Sunday, you’ll note the overlap in support for not only development of the secondary near the Delmarva, but also what should be an enhanced precip shield ahead of the front:

-lower level warm advection
-vorticity advection from both the relatively weaker lead wave plus the increasing advection from the northern stream energy AND general forcing for ascent downstream of the main trough axis
-decent jet support from the left exit region

Where is there support for the primary to remain the primary so long? From what I can tell, it’s occluded, as it’s already well removed from the jet. Based on this analysis, warm air transport ahead of the front should be less efficient, as the developing circulation from the secondary will work to retard it, drawing in cooler air from New England and the high pressure that should be able to exert a bit more influence than modeled thanks to the pseudo-NAO and 50/50 couplet. Temperatures near and above 850mb should remain sub-freezing, so that’s not the concern. As for the lower levels, 925-850mb, which is where the only warmth is for the areas I mentioned, if you’re drawing in cooler air from the northeast at the lower levels thanks to the sooner developing secondary low, then efficiently lifting that air thanks to the dynamics in play, it won’t take much to cool the column JUST ENOUGH to support snow. This time of year, you can snow in marginal air masses, and I think we will in the areas north and west of I-287/I-80. I haven’t really considered amounts, as my battle here is more with the white versus wet argument, but maybe I could expand on that later if time permits.

Again, this is just my opinion, but I wanted to at least explain where my head is at. It may be crazy, but it’s what I think, so, we’ll see haha

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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 25, 2023 6:21 am

20 degrees, clear and calm winds.
Nice write up rb.I am between I-80 and I -287 so will be interesting to watch this.NWS right now in the all rain camp for me.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:37 am

brrrrrrrr! 24* low this morning, but the sun is warming it up quickly, although it will still be cold today. I think it will feel nice enough later as the sun feels good through the windows.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 25, 2023 8:34 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:The threat for the 27th is alive and well folks. Don’t be surprised if the models start picking up on the white, as opposed to wet threat, especially for anybody north and west if I-287, in the coming days. I fully expect a colder/more consolidated trend with this one as we get closer. Whether or not it will be enough to get everybody in the game, I’m not sure. But I think some of us will definitely see an accumulating snow out of it.
The 500mb does suggest the storm should amp up and move slowly once doing so, but my thought is it does so a bit too far north for most folks around here. I just think there's not much cold air to work with at the onset and this will deepen as it gets past our latitude advecting the cold air behind it. Maybe elevated areas get something? But I think for most folks a cold rain incoming...



Beat me to it Haw. Just not seeing enough at 500 to warrant overt optimism for much of our coverage area with this one.  There is too much disorganized lead vorticity for an initial wave of cold novermver rain and like mentioned the northern energy drops in too late. Northern NE may see a doozy and I guess perhaps there is still a little time for some of the higher elevations to get in on some flakes but overall it appears a cold Novermer rain is on the way.



Don’t get me wrong, fellas, I’m not saying everybody is gonna get snow, but I think those of us north and west of 287 (maybe I-80) have a legitimate shot at seeing some accumulation out of this. I wanted to make a video to explain, but I don’t think that I’ll have the time, so I’ll try to succinctly explain lol

Firstly, the overall pattern in the Northern Hemisphere strongly supports this trending colder, as we have the following factors favoring it:

-pseudo -NAO and 50/50 couplet
-70/70 ridge
-negative EPO
-positive PNA

We also have favorable tropics:

-negative SOI
-MJO phase


The ENSO state is neutral, in my opinion, as regions 1.2 and 3.4 are essential equally warm (anomaly-wise), however, we do have the anomalous warmth in the Gulf and Atlantic. The AO is essentially neutral, again, my opinion, and the WPO is positive. So, the warmth in the Gulf and Atlantic, and the positive WPO are not enough to resist the push from the trough coming into the eastern CONUS, in my opinion, which is why I like a colder trend here. This would thereby also support a faster and stronger northern stream system and earlier interaction with the lead wave, i.e. earlier injection of fresh cold air, into the lead system.

Additionally, I do not agree that the secondary low will be as late to bloom as guidance is suggesting when I look at the details. If you look at the following starting on Sunday, you’ll note the overlap in support for not only development of the secondary near the Delmarva, but also what should be an enhanced precip shield ahead of the front:

-lower level warm advection
-vorticity advection from both the relatively weaker lead wave plus the increasing advection from the northern stream energy AND general forcing for ascent downstream of the main trough axis
-decent jet support from the left exit region


Where is there support for the primary to remain the primary so long? From what I can tell, it’s occluded, as it’s already well removed from the jet. Based on this analysis, warm air transport ahead of the front should be less efficient, as the developing circulation from the secondary will work to retard it, drawing in cooler air from New England and the high pressure that should be able to exert a bit more influence than modeled thanks to the pseudo-NAO and 50/50 couplet. Temperatures near and above 850mb should remain sub-freezing, so that’s not the concern. As for the lower levels, 925-850mb, which is where the only warmth is for the areas I mentioned, if you’re drawing in cooler air from the northeast at the lower levels thanks to the sooner developing secondary low, then efficiently lifting that air thanks to the dynamics in play, it won’t take much to cool the column JUST ENOUGH to support snow. This time of year, you can snow in marginal air masses, and I think we will in the areas north and west of I-287/I-80. I haven’t really considered amounts, as my battle here is more with the white versus wet argument, but maybe I could expand on that later if time permits.

Again, this is just my opinion, but I wanted to at least explain where my head is at. It may be crazy, but it’s what I think, so, we’ll see haha

Morning Ray.  Love the discussion.  First I def did not state that your claim was that everyone was going to see snow.  I simply stated that my optimism for most on the board to see snow was low.  Regarding the area I bolded AND underlined in your comments I simply cannot argue any of it.  Its pretty objective and in general all of those things favor cold and snow chances into the general region.  However; I am going to have to respectfully disagree with your comments that are plain bolded above.  This part of course is more subjective.  

Id first like to address your second point first, and comment on the question "Where is there support for the primary to remain the primary so long?".  Watching the 500mb vort charts over the past several days bot GFS and Euro, Ill use euro today for illustration, it appears that there isnt necessarily  a "primary" and then a "secondary" in the traditional sense.  It appears early on we get a primary to develop amidst the sea of vorticity in the northern branches as well as its own "primary" develop just off Cape Hatt associated with the lead energy in the STJ. The 500mb vort maps support this.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf133
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf132

However as move further in time while it does appear we get some interaction, we never really consolidate into a main vort max at the base of a phased trough.  Based on the 500mb vort maps vorticity advection alone still seems to support two separate LP centers in the locations that they are.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf134
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf135


Now to me probably the single most important aspect of this is the point you made about the jet streak.  Referring to the plain underlined comment above I believe the jet streak actually supports enhanced warm air advection well into the area.  Traditionally for those who may not follow when you have a jet streak (Jet Streak Defined) in the upper levels of the atmosphere, below on the surface in the right rear quadrant of the jet streak (JS) and the left front quadrant of the JS the development/enhancement of low pressure/rising air is favored or enhanced.  The mechanism for this is for another discussion.  Keeping this in mind lets look at the 300mb maps and notice our jet streak is not the traditional one to our NE putting us in the R rear quadrant, but rather the JS is associated with he southern stream flow.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf136
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf137

Given the position of the JS enhanced rising motion; therefore, LP is favored over the areas circled.  Zoomed in below you can see this enhanced rising air in the L front Quad of the JS AND WAA from the LP over the GL region you get a broad area of precipitation in between both surface LP as a result.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf-15


Below is the surface pressure anomaly maps showing the favored LP blue over most of NE.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf139
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf138

Next important fact here is pay particular attention to where the HP to our NE is positioned by Hr 54.  Pretty much over the 50/50 region out over the Atlantic off the E Canadian coast.  This needs to be 750-800miles further west and perhaps a tad further south as well if is to help.  Instead the result is a position that hurts.  

So now there are two extremely important factors that enhance warm air advection well into the area flooding the mid levels with above freezing temps.

Lets start looking at the images below.  First image hr 54 has the LP off the Delmarva.  Second; however, hr 60 has the LP centered just S of Cape Cod and getting stronger.  Normally a strengthening LP that has moved east of Long Island would be drawing in cold air on the backside, but that doesn't seem to be happening here.  Why?  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf140
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf-14

Reason is because of the mechanisms I stated below.  You absolutely need HP to our N.  As stated it is not.  The position of the HP is such that the developing LP is drawing in warm air over the open Atlantic rather than cold air from NE.  Second, because there is an equally strong LP well to the NW over the GL and the JS enhances rising air to our N and NW this creates a wind vector to the N and NW AWAY from our coastal LP.  So instead of the coastal low drawing in the cold air on the back side, that air is being "stolen" by the GL LP.  so the dominating wind vectors for our surface coastal LP are from the E, SE, S, and WSW, all warm source regions. Below is 850mb and 925mb temp maps and you can clearly see the freezing line is way far NW, when again normally a LP sitting south of cape cod the mid levels would be crashing and that just isn't happening due to the mechanisms outlined above.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf141
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf142


Unfort this is how I see it, so while I still wont rule out some flakes in the higher elevations, the expectation has to remain fairly low for most on the this board for this one IMHO.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by 1190ftalt Sat Nov 25, 2023 8:55 am

Low 21 degrees, heavy frost , now 26 degrees at 8:62 in AM,
     Good Luck !November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 426c7810
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 43591410
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 25, 2023 10:01 am

23* here for my morning low, outdid by lower 3* degrees of forecasted. 
Anyone getting the 13-14,14-15, 09-10 views on the cold and stormy pattern setting up? Cold is colder than expected or forecasted and good forbearance on what is to come 

I'm telling you we may have a beast if an outbreak this winter that may rival some of the colder one this past century here and in the conus overall at different times.


https://x.com/ContentWxGuy/status/1728400335503233062?s=20



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Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 25, 2023 10:02 am

21.5 was my low this morning. Central Park hit 31 so below freezing for first time in November.

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Sat Nov 25, 2023 10:05 am

If true winter comes in as we end the month, one week dekay2s for the forecasted time of tjis week. Delayed but not denied!!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Image_31

And windy to, maybe not tjis windy but even reduce by 25% it's windy and wind chills kick in - 20's and teens for colder areas!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Image_31
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Image_32

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Sat Nov 25, 2023 11:39 am

Things are going to kick in soon with this air mass.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 F_yz7s10

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Post by amugs Sat Nov 25, 2023 3:51 pm

Rb here's your storm, need it a bit more SE but interior will see some flakes I'd suggest with this set up.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 F_zowk10

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Post by frank 638 Sat Nov 25, 2023 4:07 pm

amugs wrote:Rb here's your storm, need it a bit more SE but interior will see some flakes I'd suggest with this set up.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 F_zowk10
when is this for

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Post by dkodgis Sat Nov 25, 2023 4:14 pm

Tues evening ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 25, 2023 5:18 pm

dkodgis wrote:Tues evening ?

Logged on to comment about this. Heights are pretty amplified along the coast as we see the upper energy mature and partially phase west of our area. This likely calls for the surface low to track along or just off the coast, but mid levels are warm so it’s falling as a cold rain.

However, I’m very interested in this event for N&W of NYC. It feels like timing in the upper levels is improving with each consecutive run. This isn’t surprising given the look of the stout PNA ridge. It is forcing the northern jet to sink into the eastern CONUS around the same time the southern energy moves in.

Right now it’s looking warm for everyone, but a couple of more ticks and it will surprise N&W with some white Tuesday night Smile

Also, happy belated Thanksgiving to everyone. I hope it was time well spent with friends and family

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Nov 25, 2023 9:11 pm

already 29*...it was chilly day...took our last spin out on the water..
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Sun Nov 26, 2023 7:46 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:The threat for the 27th is alive and well folks. Don’t be surprised if the models start picking up on the white, as opposed to wet threat, especially for anybody north and west if I-287, in the coming days. I fully expect a colder/more consolidated trend with this one as we get closer. Whether or not it will be enough to get everybody in the game, I’m not sure. But I think some of us will definitely see an accumulating snow out of it.
The 500mb does suggest the storm should amp up and move slowly once doing so, but my thought is it does so a bit too far north for most folks around here. I just think there's not much cold air to work with at the onset and this will deepen as it gets past our latitude advecting the cold air behind it. Maybe elevated areas get something? But I think for most folks a cold rain incoming...



Beat me to it Haw. Just not seeing enough at 500 to warrant overt optimism for much of our coverage area with this one.  There is too much disorganized lead vorticity for an initial wave of cold novermver rain and like mentioned the northern energy drops in too late. Northern NE may see a doozy and I guess perhaps there is still a little time for some of the higher elevations to get in on some flakes but overall it appears a cold Novermer rain is on the way.



Don’t get me wrong, fellas, I’m not saying everybody is gonna get snow, but I think those of us north and west of 287 (maybe I-80) have a legitimate shot at seeing some accumulation out of this. I wanted to make a video to explain, but I don’t think that I’ll have the time, so I’ll try to succinctly explain lol

Firstly, the overall pattern in the Northern Hemisphere strongly supports this trending colder, as we have the following factors favoring it:

-pseudo -NAO and 50/50 couplet
-70/70 ridge
-negative EPO
-positive PNA

We also have favorable tropics:

-negative SOI
-MJO phase


The ENSO state is neutral, in my opinion, as regions 1.2 and 3.4 are essential equally warm (anomaly-wise), however, we do have the anomalous warmth in the Gulf and Atlantic. The AO is essentially neutral, again, my opinion, and the WPO is positive. So, the warmth in the Gulf and Atlantic, and the positive WPO are not enough to resist the push from the trough coming into the eastern CONUS, in my opinion, which is why I like a colder trend here. This would thereby also support a faster and stronger northern stream system and earlier interaction with the lead wave, i.e. earlier injection of fresh cold air, into the lead system.

Additionally, I do not agree that the secondary low will be as late to bloom as guidance is suggesting when I look at the details. If you look at the following starting on Sunday, you’ll note the overlap in support for not only development of the secondary near the Delmarva, but also what should be an enhanced precip shield ahead of the front:

-lower level warm advection
-vorticity advection from both the relatively weaker lead wave plus the increasing advection from the northern stream energy AND general forcing for ascent downstream of the main trough axis
-decent jet support from the left exit region


Where is there support for the primary to remain the primary so long? From what I can tell, it’s occluded, as it’s already well removed from the jet. Based on this analysis, warm air transport ahead of the front should be less efficient, as the developing circulation from the secondary will work to retard it, drawing in cooler air from New England and the high pressure that should be able to exert a bit more influence than modeled thanks to the pseudo-NAO and 50/50 couplet. Temperatures near and above 850mb should remain sub-freezing, so that’s not the concern. As for the lower levels, 925-850mb, which is where the only warmth is for the areas I mentioned, if you’re drawing in cooler air from the northeast at the lower levels thanks to the sooner developing secondary low, then efficiently lifting that air thanks to the dynamics in play, it won’t take much to cool the column JUST ENOUGH to support snow. This time of year, you can snow in marginal air masses, and I think we will in the areas north and west of I-287/I-80. I haven’t really considered amounts, as my battle here is more with the white versus wet argument, but maybe I could expand on that later if time permits.

Again, this is just my opinion, but I wanted to at least explain where my head is at. It may be crazy, but it’s what I think, so, we’ll see haha

Morning Ray.  Love the discussion.  First I def did not state that your claim was that everyone was going to see snow.  I simply stated that my optimism for most on the board to see snow was low.  Regarding the area I bolded AND underlined in your comments I simply cannot argue any of it.  Its pretty objective and in general all of those things favor cold and snow chances into the general region.  However; I am going to have to respectfully disagree with your comments that are plain bolded above.  This part of course is more subjective.  

Id first like to address your second point first, and comment on the question "Where is there support for the primary to remain the primary so long?".  Watching the 500mb vort charts over the past several days bot GFS and Euro, Ill use euro today for illustration, it appears that there isnt necessarily  a "primary" and then a "secondary" in the traditional sense.  It appears early on we get a primary to develop amidst the sea of vorticity in the northern branches as well as its own "primary" develop just off Cape Hatt associated with the lead energy in the STJ. The 500mb vort maps support this.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf133
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf132

However as move further in time while it does appear we get some interaction, we never really consolidate into a main vort max at the base of a phased trough.  Based on the 500mb vort maps vorticity advection alone still seems to support two separate LP centers in the locations that they are.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf134
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf135


Now to me probably the single most important aspect of this is the point you made about the jet streak.  Referring to the plain underlined comment above I believe the jet streak actually supports enhanced warm air advection well into the area.  Traditionally for those who may not follow when you have a jet streak (Jet Streak Defined) in the upper levels of the atmosphere, below on the surface in the right rear quadrant of the jet streak (JS) and the left front quadrant of the JS the development/enhancement of low pressure/rising air is favored or enhanced.  The mechanism for this is for another discussion.  Keeping this in mind lets look at the 300mb maps and notice our jet streak is not the traditional one to our NE putting us in the R rear quadrant, but rather the JS is associated with he southern stream flow.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf136
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf137

Given the position of the JS enhanced rising motion; therefore, LP is favored over the areas circled.  Zoomed in below you can see this enhanced rising air in the L front Quad of the JS AND WAA from the LP over the GL region you get a broad area of precipitation in between both surface LP as a result.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf-15


Below is the surface pressure anomaly maps showing the favored LP blue over most of NE.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf139
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf138

Next important fact here is pay particular attention to where the HP to our NE is positioned by Hr 54.  Pretty much over the 50/50 region out over the Atlantic off the E Canadian coast.  This needs to be 750-800miles further west and perhaps a tad further south as well if is to help.  Instead the result is a position that hurts.  

So now there are two extremely important factors that enhance warm air advection well into the area flooding the mid levels with above freezing temps.

Lets start looking at the images below.  First image hr 54 has the LP off the Delmarva.  Second; however, hr 60 has the LP centered just S of Cape Cod and getting stronger.  Normally a strengthening LP that has moved east of Long Island would be drawing in cold air on the backside, but that doesn't seem to be happening here.  Why?  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf140
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf-14

Reason is because of the mechanisms I stated below.  You absolutely need HP to our N.  As stated it is not.  The position of the HP is such that the developing LP is drawing in warm air over the open Atlantic rather than cold air from NE.  Second, because there is an equally strong LP well to the NW over the GL and the JS enhances rising air to our N and NW this creates a wind vector to the N and NW AWAY from our coastal LP.  So instead of the coastal low drawing in the cold air on the back side, that air is being "stolen" by the GL LP.  so the dominating wind vectors for our surface coastal LP are from the E, SE, S, and WSW, all warm source regions. Below is 850mb and 925mb temp maps and you can clearly see the freezing line is way far NW, when again normally a LP sitting south of cape cod the mid levels would be crashing and that just isn't happening due to the mechanisms outlined above.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf141
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf142


Unfort this is how I see it, so while I still wont rule out some flakes in the higher elevations, the expectation has to remain fairly low for most on the this board for this one IMHO.  


Good rebuttal, buddy, but I want to counter you on something that I maybe didn’t do a good enough job of highlighting in my original post. I agree with you that this setup isn’t ideal - the Great Lakes/southern Canada low is always a wrench in the proverbial monkey, and the high is definitely further east than any of us would like to see it. However, the point that I want to make, and I guess I glossed over it the first time is with respect to the formation of the secondary coastal low. Firstly, I contend that it should develop more quickly than what guidance is suggesting, and yes, that’s purely subjective. However, let’s assume that hypothesis turns out to be correct for the sake of my argument. As it strengthens, it’s going to change the low-level flow. Not necessarily at 850mb, but at the surface. You’ll end up with an expanding cyclonic circulation as it continues to move northeastward such that the lowest level winds, say, surface to 950mb, will back and begin to shift easterly, northeasterly, northerly, and even north-northwesterly, AGAINST the backdrop of the overall southerly/southwesterly flow aloft. Where’s my support?


Take a look at the following normalized anomaly map valid for this evening:

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Img_1911

Obviously, you can see the higher pressure generally in and east of eastern New England, denoted by the red shading, and the lower pressures in our area denoted by the blue shading. The darker the colors, the stronger the anomaly. Keep in mind this is not based on my idea of an earlier/faster secondary coastal development, but you can see that the secondary is already MORE anomalous than the Great Lakes/southern Canada low, as depicted by the darker blue shading. Also note the “wedge” of relatively less negative anomalies cutting through central New England and into central PA. This is key. This depicts a zone of lower-level divergence, as some air is being drawn northward toward the Great Lakes/southern Canada low, and some is being drawn southward toward the strengthening secondary low off the coast think of tue pressure gradient force, which acts perpendicularly to pressure contours). Obviously, the coastal plain, I-95 Corridor, etc. are generally too warm for this to matter, but for areas further north and west, especially with elevation, such as the Poconos, Catskills, even into the Mid-Hudson Valley, this is hugely important. Why?

In those areas, based on guidance verbatim, the warmest layer above the surface is only getting to about 1-1.5°C, and that’s from just above the surface to about 850mb. But what happens if you start advecting even slightly cooler air from central New England southward into those areas, and THEN you force it to lift thanks to the dynamics already discussed (warm advection, vorticity advection, jet dynamics)? Additionally, I think there will be pretty substantial lift with this - I don’t think it’s going to be showers, rather, I think this will be a blossoming Nor’easter, so we should see a pretty well defined system and frontal structure, further aiding in enhancing the lift……..you lift marginally cool (1-1.5°C) air even half a kilometer at wetbulb rates, and it still cools 3°C, which gets you sufficiently below freezing, number 1, and number 2, into a zone of prime dendritic growth.

This is why for the areas north and west of I-80/I-287 I am not sold on a wet outcome. I think the models are too slow with the secondary coastal development, and I don’t think they are handling the results of that properly in a marginal airmass. Clearly I’m on an island here, so the bust potential is real, but if nothing else, it’s a good discussion haha

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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 26, 2023 8:04 am

Off to my sons soccer game so I can’t write a details response but reading through Ray it’s as if I had a wet bulb, I mean light bulb, go off in my head. Lol. Dynamic cooling is certainly an important factor that has not really entered into my thought process yet and going back to your original write up you did in fact mention it. I guess I must of glossed over it as I was formulating my thoughts for my response.

That said looking at the 925 & 850 wind maps the wind barbs it still seems like there are problems.  I’ll try and look at a few things that I previously hadn’t later today.

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