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November 2023 Observations and Discussion

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Nov 15, 2023 7:40 am

27* this morning and heavy frost again.

For Friday Night thorugh Saturday afternooninsh - Rainy.
Coastal Low stays offshore, outside teh benchmark and does not fully phase so we have a messy showery period.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F--TYSWXIAAY30u?format=jpg&name=large

Model Blend - about 1/2" of rain - if it were snow we'd go from Godzilla to almost nill tow days ago to a Monthra - buckle up peeps is ALL I can say!!! The amount of coastals we are seeing are going to be wild this D -M period as the STJ flexes from the peaking Nino. Great sign.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F--TYSWXUAAik0D?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by aiannone Wed Nov 15, 2023 12:29 pm

28.0* for a low this morning. Heavy frost.

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Nov 15, 2023 1:03 pm

What I tell ya about the Negative EPO and how it will drive the cold into the CONUS - modles are starting to pick up on this. Look at the cold WOWZA for November!!
Turkey day in NYC low 40's and windy, suburtbs upper 30's and windy may tick colder.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Nov 15, 2023 2:02 pm

Look at this vorticity - MADONNE!! Tilt a bit more and Negative she goes and wammo - we have a hell of a storm with white gold posible in the Piedmont of NNJ and NY (= Upper Westchester and Rockland)

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F-_v2r6WwAAzmwZ?format=jpg&name=900x900

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Nov 15, 2023 3:03 pm

If this occurs total carnage for air travel on the busiest travel day of the year!!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F-_R650a8AAjwkK?format=jpg&name=900x900


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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 15, 2023 3:56 pm

amugs wrote:If this occurs total carnage for air travel on the busiest travel day of the year!!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F-_R650a8AAjwkK?format=jpg&name=900x900


Que Jman in 3…2…1….

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 16, 2023 1:11 am

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:If this occurs total carnage for air travel on the busiest travel day of the year!!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F-_R650a8AAjwkK?format=jpg&name=900x900


Que Jman in 3…2…1….
LMAO, that was a long wait after 1 hope you were not sit there refreshing. I was fully expecting that lol. Yeah but as you told me those are 850s and decieving, would still get pretty windy though, lets say knock those in half if they even mix down, that would be up to 50mph sustained in those darker reds/pink which would be pretty nuts. I gotta travel to Guilford, CT on Thursday morning so I am hoping it won't be too bad, I know it wont be snow but heavy rain and wind aren't fun either. Rooting for northern guys, lets play good karma this year and see how it goes. I can't imagine seeing much down here unti late Dec or Jan.
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:49 am

What I tell ya'll about the Negative EPO drilling the cold into the CONUS like ala 13-14, 14-15 winters. Peeps better buckle up and get more firewood!!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F_Dnv-8XgAAbmAi?format=png&name=medium

High Temps for Turkey Day - BRRR!!!

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F_DnwHFXgAIZZCh?format=png&name=medium

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F_Dnv4mW0AAiGHg?format=png&name=medium

This storm on Wednesday - CP may awake to some frozen mix as Damian and Artesian.
Not hype but the potential for waht might fall as frozen up North. I'd say not accumulations but fall from teh sky as a mix.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F_DJSNkXIAAirzk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


Last edited by amugs on Thu Nov 16, 2023 2:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Thu Nov 16, 2023 9:06 am

As Sly Stone once sang:

“Oh pretty babe. Oh pretty babe. Oh what a gorgeous sight”


Last edited by dkodgis on Thu Nov 16, 2023 12:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:10 am

Id be real hesitant in getting hope up, even for our NW folks here, as there looks like there is a major problem for snowfall to actually come to fruition for the 21-23rd time frame.  Ill try and post a few maps and thoughts about why later.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by MattyICE Thu Nov 16, 2023 1:29 pm

I agree. I think the Turkey day storm works to change the pattern. I like the 24th through the end of the month for first potential flakes!

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:43 am

If this is real, GEFS ENS map, the 50/50 LOW will do its dirty work and force the storm under and it will trend south. I disagree with the above that the interior and NW crew can't see snow. Not snow goggles but look at evolution of the maps, pattern from E Asia through North Atlantic and never underesitmate the Negative EPO like so many did in 13-14, 14-15 winters. Time will tell but it is on the table for them. Not saying coast - don't get confused by this but NW ~ 75 miles and N can see it IMO at this time. If that 50/50 is true of course.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gefs_e10

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:18 am

Feels and smells like a spring day outside...sigh. It's snow season

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:22 am

If there is accuracy in what the ensembles are showing I'd expect at least some snowfall before close of November. Especially in the interior. Even a weaker s/w could produce a decent snowfall with the amplification in the west running into deep cold air in the east. The best winter years from my experience start showing up in November and by mid December you've already gotten decent snowfall or certainly there's cold air to support it and just not timing s/w's right.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Eps82

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:35 am

The 12Z GFS tries to pinch off the ridge via 50/50 L and piece of TPV and some eastern blocking. I wouldn't buy it yet until there's some support. Whether this amounts to anything is not as interesting to me as seeing a weakened TPV already.


November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Prethx10

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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 17, 2023 12:32 pm

amugs wrote:If this is real, GEFS ENS map, the 50/50 LOW will do its dirty work and force the storm under and it will trend south. I disagree with the above that the interior and NW crew can't see snow. Not snow goggles but look at evolution of the maps, pattern from E Asia through North Atlantic and never underesitmate the Negative EPO like so many did in 13-14, 14-15 winters. Time will tell but it is on the table for them. Not saying coast - don't get confused by this but NW ~ 75 miles and N can see it IMO at this time. If that 50/50 is true of course.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gefs_e10


Not sure if you were referring to my comment but I never said it cant snow.  I said dont get your hopes up because I didnt think the set up was right.  I still dont for most despite the 6z surface map.  At H5 begininng with 12 z yesterday this is what the vort maps showed.  No one will snow with this set up.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700632800-4oRTtiVOJaY
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700632800-2ZxIgBOWOP4
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700632800-MfHGk9yewsY

Then out of no where 6z GFS looks like this(see below).  Now this can lead to snow for some of our coverage area.  Basically what you see below is a phase with the N and southern energy such that it drags down cold air so folks off the coast could see a brief period of snow.  But is it right?


November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700632800-sudnptF1JUE

Euro and CMC both similar in set up to prev runs of GFS.  Even worse actually regarding warm air infiltration to the mid levels.


Looking at the surface maps what this first image shows, 00z GFS, is a weakness(blue connection in the N Plains) on the western Flank of that beautiful 1031HP to our N. A strong southern system then has no mechanism to prevent it from reaching the GL before beginning any transfer to the coast.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700546400-Rsw40RGkf8o
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700665200-gofnFz5vYjA
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700665200-OYUYA3sq5gk


6z on the other hand has an HP bridge over top the southern LP.  This shunts the primary it further south and east and much weaker before the transfer.  With a phased system instead of a strong primary to the N&W you get the strong secondary S&E of us which drags in the cold air.  

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700546400-DCQuJFwB6iI
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700632800-wSNMsPfZuXY
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700686800-3kPWlP7xRPc
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1700686800-btMk5DxWInE


Again not saying it cant happen, as 6z GFS just showed how its at least possible; however, I am going to need to see a lot more consistency towards a phased type soln and not one with a strong primary that cuts into the GL before I buy into anything other than a few wet flakes.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 18, 2023 11:31 am

More expansive snow cover in eastern CA now, but below normal. NNE nada even in the mountains of ME. Nonetheless, it won't shock me to see snow for at least parts of the area last few days of November based on ensemble guidance.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Easter15

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:If there is accuracy in what the ensembles are showing I'd expect at least some snowfall before close of November. Especially in the interior. Even a weaker s/w could produce a decent snowfall with the amplification in the west running into deep cold air in the east. The best winter years from my experience start showing up in November and by mid December you've already gotten decent snowfall or certainly there's cold air to support it and just not timing s/w's right.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Eps82

Very strongly agree, on all counts. Although, I think the coast has an equal shot as the interior this time around, and maybe even better given the progged setup. Regarding this same threat period (27th-01st, in my opinion from the Long Range thread), todays 12z EURO Op looks mightily enticing at Day 10 lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:19 pm

heehaw453 wrote:More expansive snow cover in eastern CA now, but below normal. NNE nada even in the mountains of ME. Nonetheless, it won't shock me to see snow for at least parts of the area last few days of November based on ensemble guidance.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Easter15

I don’t think this is going to be a big year for eastern Canada (specifically Newfoundland and eastern/southern Quebec), as I think there will be a predominance of a -NAO base state. Good thing we don’t live there, though haha

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Post by 1190ftalt Sun Nov 19, 2023 9:07 am

Low last night 28 degrees, now 35 at 9:02 in am, heavy frost on ground,
     Good Luck !November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 C481a710
November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 364ccd10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 19, 2023 2:15 pm

Hey all, been follow Wed a bit, was wondeeing if my sister is gonna be able to make it down from Syracuse to coastal CT on Wednesday, thats when she is leaving because she has to head back on Friday. How bad might it be up there down to there? Seeing some pretty crazy snow maps for up there as high as 18-20.
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Post by aiannone Sun Nov 19, 2023 9:29 pm

28* for a low this morning on the island. Warmed up to be a nice day in the upper 50's. Back to cold tmw.

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 20, 2023 7:56 am

27* for my low - brrrrr. We are offcially in phase one of the MJO so the colder air will be in place with the threat of storms - both wet and white upcoming as we head into phase 2.

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 20, 2023 9:12 am

Let' see if this can amplify and come up the coast as indicated on the map from WillyC

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F_YUlcDXIAAbpuH?format=jpg&name=medium

Cold air will be in place

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F_YUlcGWgAAsHcy?format=png&name=medium

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Nov 20, 2023 10:14 am

Mt. Holly going big with the rainfall totals, I don't see the support of the models though. Upton seems closer to modelling.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nwsmt_10

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nwsupt10


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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: November 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Nov 20, 2023 1:39 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Mt. Holly going big with the rainfall totals, I don't see the support of the models though. Upton seems closer to modelling.

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nwsmt_10

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nwsupt10


Matches up pretty well

November 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Qpf10

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Post by MattyICE Mon Nov 20, 2023 2:53 pm

Really like that though the GFS doesn’t have any storm out there for us (wouldn’t want a bullseye in the long range anyway) - that it has plenty of souther stream vorticity streaming through. Just have to see if we can resolve some timing issues and get lucky with something productive before we warm up in Dec.

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