November 2023 Observations and Discussion

27* this morning and heavy frost again.

For Friday Night thorugh Saturday afternooninsh - Rainy.
Coastal Low stays offshore, outside teh benchmark and does not fully phase so we have a messy showery period.



Model Blend - about 1/2" of rain - if it were snow we'd go from Godzilla to almost nill tow days ago to a Monthra - buckle up peeps is ALL I can say!!! The amount of coastals we are seeing are going to be wild this D -M period as the STJ flexes from the peaking Nino. Great sign.

28.0* for a low this morning. Heavy frost.

What I tell ya about the Negative EPO and how it will drive the cold into the CONUS - modles are starting to pick up on this. Look at the cold WOWZA for November!!
Turkey day in NYC low 40's and windy, suburtbs upper 30's and windy may tick colder.

Look at this vorticity - MADONNE!! Tilt a bit more and Negative she goes and wammo - we have a hell of a storm with white gold posible in the Piedmont of NNJ and NY (= Upper Westchester and Rockland)

If this occurs total carnage for air travel on the busiest travel day of the year!!

amugs wrote:If this occurs total carnage for air travel on the busiest travel day of the year!!

Que Jman in 3…2…1….

What I tell ya'll about the Negative EPO drilling the cold into the CONUS like ala 13-14, 14-15 winters. Peeps better buckle up and get more firewood!!



High Temps for Turkey Day - BRRR!!!





This storm on Wednesday - CP may awake to some frozen mix as Damian and Artesian.
Not hype but the potential for waht might fall as frozen up North. I'd say not accumulations but fall from teh sky as a mix.

Id be real hesitant in getting hope up, even for our NW folks here, as there looks like there is a major problem for snowfall to actually come to fruition for the 21-23rd time frame.  Ill try and post a few maps and thoughts about why later.

I agree. I think the Turkey day storm works to change the pattern. I like the 24th through the end of the month for first potential flakes!

If this is real, GEFS ENS map, the 50/50 LOW will do its dirty work and force the storm under and it will trend south. I disagree with the above that the interior and NW crew can't see snow. Not snow goggles but look at evolution of the maps, pattern from E Asia through North Atlantic and never underesitmate the Negative EPO like so many did in 13-14, 14-15 winters. Time will tell but it is on the table for them. Not saying coast - don't get confused by this but NW ~ 75 miles and N can see it IMO at this time. If that 50/50 is true of course.

Feels and smells like a spring day outside...sigh. It's snow season

If there is accuracy in what the ensembles are showing I'd expect at least some snowfall before close of November. Especially in the interior. Even a weaker s/w could produce a decent snowfall with the amplification in the west running into deep cold air in the east. The best winter years from my experience start showing up in November and by mid December you've already gotten decent snowfall or certainly there's cold air to support it and just not timing s/w's right.

The 12Z GFS tries to pinch off the ridge via 50/50 L and piece of TPV and some eastern blocking. I wouldn't buy it yet until there's some support. Whether this amounts to anything is not as interesting to me as seeing a weakened TPV already.

amugs wrote:If this is real, GEFS ENS map, the 50/50 LOW will do its dirty work and force the storm under and it will trend south. I disagree with the above that the interior and NW crew can't see snow. Not snow goggles but look at evolution of the maps, pattern from E Asia through North Atlantic and never underesitmate the Negative EPO like so many did in 13-14, 14-15 winters. Time will tell but it is on the table for them. Not saying coast - don't get confused by this but NW ~ 75 miles and N can see it IMO at this time. If that 50/50 is true of course.

Not sure if you were referring to my comment but I never said it cant snow.  I said dont get your hopes up because I didnt think the set up was right.  I still dont for most despite the 6z surface map.  At H5 begininng with 12 z yesterday this is what the vort maps showed.  No one will snow with this set up.  





Then out of no where 6z GFS looks like this(see below).  Now this can lead to snow for some of our coverage area.  Basically what you see below is a phase with the N and southern energy such that it drags down cold air so folks off the coast could see a brief period of snow.  But is it right?




Euro and CMC both similar in set up to prev runs of GFS.  Even worse actually regarding warm air infiltration to the mid levels.


Looking at the surface maps what this first image shows, 00z GFS, is a weakness(blue connection in the N Plains) on the western Flank of that beautiful 1031HP to our N. A strong southern system then has no mechanism to prevent it from reaching the GL before beginning any transfer to the coast.  






6z on the other hand has an HP bridge over top the southern LP.  This shunts the primary it further south and east and much weaker before the transfer.  With a phased system instead of a strong primary to the N&W you get the strong secondary S&E of us which drags in the cold air.  







Again not saying it cant happen, as 6z GFS just showed how its at least possible; however, I am going to need to see a lot more consistency towards a phased type soln and not one with a strong primary that cuts into the GL before I buy into anything other than a few wet flakes.

More expansive snow cover in eastern CA now, but below normal. NNE nada even in the mountains of ME. Nonetheless, it won't shock me to see snow for at least parts of the area last few days of November based on ensemble guidance.

heehaw453 wrote:If there is accuracy in what the ensembles are showing I'd expect at least some snowfall before close of November. Especially in the interior. Even a weaker s/w could produce a decent snowfall with the amplification in the west running into deep cold air in the east. The best winter years from my experience start showing up in November and by mid December you've already gotten decent snowfall or certainly there's cold air to support it and just not timing s/w's right.

Very strongly agree, on all counts. Although, I think the coast has an equal shot as the interior this time around, and maybe even better given the progged setup. Regarding this same threat period (27th-01st, in my opinion from the Long Range thread), todays 12z EURO Op looks mightily enticing at Day 10 lol

heehaw453 wrote:More expansive snow cover in eastern CA now, but below normal. NNE nada even in the mountains of ME. Nonetheless, it won't shock me to see snow for at least parts of the area last few days of November based on ensemble guidance.

I don’t think this is going to be a big year for eastern Canada (specifically Newfoundland and eastern/southern Quebec), as I think there will be a predominance of a -NAO base state. Good thing we don’t live there, though haha

Low last night 28 degrees, now 35 at 9:02 in am, heavy frost on ground,
     Good Luck !

28* for a low this morning on the island. Warmed up to be a nice day in the upper 50's. Back to cold tmw.

27* for my low - brrrrr. We are offcially in phase one of the MJO so the colder air will be in place with the threat of storms - both wet and white upcoming as we head into phase 2.

Let' see if this can amplify and come up the coast as indicated on the map from WillyC



Cold air will be in place

Dunnzoo wrote:Mt. Holly going big with the rainfall totals, I don't see the support of the models though. Upton seems closer to modelling.

Matches up pretty well

Really like that though the GFS doesn’t have any storm out there for us (wouldn’t want a bullseye in the long range anyway) - that it has plenty of souther stream vorticity streaming through. Just have to see if we can resolve some timing issues and get lucky with something productive before we warm up in Dec.