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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:06 pm

aiannone wrote:0z RGEM
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Sn10_a72
yuck 0 for NYC and southern WC toss lol, we dont have consistency so 0-12 lol

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

Looks like a foot into the City, no?

7”

Ohh my bad haha still, it’s a lot better than it’s been, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more.
Heck yeah and I expect it will be a bit higher here just far enough away from heat island. Rope it in ray, this is getting close to your idea!

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:09 pm

aiannone wrote:0z RGEM
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Sn10_a72

How do you have it already?? lol Cheater! haha

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by billg315 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:10 pm

I’m not seeing a huge difference in the models at this point. Big picture, draw a line from Philly to NYC and across LI. North of that is going to get a dumping of snow. Go very far south of it and this is a 1-3” event. That r/s line - the exact location of which may be entirely a nowcast Saturday night - will be a sharp cutoff from happiness to gloom.
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:13 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:0z RGEM
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Sn10_a72

How do you have it already?? lol Cheater! haha

Pivotal is fast lol

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:32 pm

GFS should be starting up shortly. Can we see earlier consolidation and phasing of the upper energy? That brings moderate snow accumulation into NYC. If not, it’s a minor event at best while N&W see a major snowstorm.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS should be starting up shortly. Can we see earlier consolidation and phasing of the upper energy? That brings moderate snow accumulation into NYC. If not, it’s a minor event at best while N&W see a major snowstorm.

Exactly. I'm staying up for it.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:44 pm

Present!!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:45 pm

GFS looks pretty amplified through 48

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:46 pm

And faster...

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:46 pm

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Pratep30

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:46 pm

The confluence is a little weaker and located slightly north compared to 18z gfs valid Saturday morning. Would suggest the surface low has room to trends N-NW. We’ll see shortly…

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:50 pm

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Sn10_a73

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:53 pm

All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:54 pm

now its a ma special lol, still nice imby
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:54 pm

0z CMC

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Pratep31

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Pratep33


Last edited by aiannone on Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:55 pm

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:55 pm

how long do we look at lr models b4 just sr?
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:55 pm

aiannone wrote:0z CMC

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Pratep31

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Pratep33

Well, HELLO, BEAUTIFUL Very Happy haha

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:56 pm

do you guys think nws will bring the wsw down to at least soutern westchester, if not also nyc?
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:56 pm

Not bad. For some reason I’m having a tough time getting myself excited. Not a fan of the whole setup aloft, the stale airmass and warm surface. Mid level vorticity is flying around all over the place like lost pigeons. I am impressed by the CCB that forms and its ability to maintain snow showers all the way into Sunday afternoon. I think I’m confident in releasing a 1st call snow map tomorrow at some point.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:57 pm

Tough pill for scott and I to swallow lol

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Sn10_a74

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:57 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Where approximately on Long Island (North Shore, western, eastern)? haha

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Where approximately on Long Island (North Shore, western, eastern)? haha

I'm where the green dot is

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Screen11

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Not bad. For some reason I’m having a tough time getting myself excited. Not a fan of the whole setup aloft, the stale airmass and warm surface. Mid level vorticity is flying around all over the place like lost pigeons. I am impressed by the CCB that forms and its ability to maintain snow showers all the way into Sunday afternoon. I think I’m confident in releasing a 1st call snow map tomorrow at some point.

It is kind of a weird setup, but it isn't a nonsensical one, in my opinion. Looking forward to the map and ensuing discussion!!

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:00 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Where approximately on Long Island (North Shore, western, eastern)? haha

I'm where the green dot is

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 13 Screen11

Well that narrows it down quite a bit haha let me check!

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