Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[jmanley32]

0z RGEM

yuck 0 for NYC and southern WC toss lol, we dont have consistency so 0-12 lol

[jmanley32]

Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

Looks like a foot into the City, no?

7”

Ohh my bad haha still, it’s a lot better than it’s been, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more.

Heck yeah and I expect it will be a bit higher here just far enough away from heat island. Rope it in ray, this is getting close to your idea!

[rb924119]

0z RGEM

How do you have it already?? lol Cheater! haha

[billg315]

I’m not seeing a huge difference in the models at this point. Big picture, draw a line from Philly to NYC and across LI. North of that is going to get a dumping of snow. Go very far south of it and this is a 1-3” event. That r/s line - the exact location of which may be entirely a nowcast Saturday night - will be a sharp cutoff from happiness to gloom.

[aiannone]

0z RGEM

How do you have it already?? lol Cheater! haha

Pivotal is fast lol

[Frank_Wx]

GFS should be starting up shortly. Can we see earlier consolidation and phasing of the upper energy? That brings moderate snow accumulation into NYC. If not, it’s a minor event at best while N&W see a major snowstorm.

[aiannone]

GFS should be starting up shortly. Can we see earlier consolidation and phasing of the upper energy? That brings moderate snow accumulation into NYC. If not, it’s a minor event at best while N&W see a major snowstorm.

Exactly. I'm staying up for it.

[rb924119]

Present!!

[rb924119]

GFS looks pretty amplified through 48

[rb924119]

And faster...

[aiannone]

[Frank_Wx]

The confluence is a little weaker and located slightly north compared to 18z gfs valid Saturday morning. Would suggest the surface low has room to trends N-NW. We’ll see shortly…

[aiannone]

[rb924119]

All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

[jmanley32]

now its a ma special lol, still nice imby

[aiannone]

0z CMC

[rb924119]

All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

[aiannone]

All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

[jmanley32]

how long do we look at lr models b4 just sr?

[rb924119]

0z CMC

Well, HELLO, BEAUTIFUL haha

[jmanley32]

do you guys think nws will bring the wsw down to at least soutern westchester, if not also nyc?

[Frank_Wx]

Not bad. For some reason I’m having a tough time getting myself excited. Not a fan of the whole setup aloft, the stale airmass and warm surface. Mid level vorticity is flying around all over the place like lost pigeons. I am impressed by the CCB that forms and its ability to maintain snow showers all the way into Sunday afternoon. I think I’m confident in releasing a 1st call snow map tomorrow at some point.

[aiannone]

Tough pill for scott and I to swallow lol

[rb924119]

All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Where approximately on Long Island (North Shore, western, eastern)? haha

[aiannone]

All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Where approximately on Long Island (North Shore, western, eastern)? haha

I'm where the green dot is

[rb924119]

Not bad. For some reason I’m having a tough time getting myself excited. Not a fan of the whole setup aloft, the stale airmass and warm surface. Mid level vorticity is flying around all over the place like lost pigeons. I am impressed by the CCB that forms and its ability to maintain snow showers all the way into Sunday afternoon. I think I’m confident in releasing a 1st call snow map tomorrow at some point.

It is kind of a weird setup, but it isn't a nonsensical one, in my opinion. Looking forward to the map and ensuing discussion!!

[rb924119]

All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Where approximately on Long Island (North Shore, western, eastern)? haha

I'm where the green dot is

Well that narrows it down quite a bit haha let me check!

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