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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Not bad. For some reason I’m having a tough time getting myself excited. Not a fan of the whole setup aloft, the stale airmass and warm surface. Mid level vorticity is flying around all over the place like lost pigeons. I am impressed by the CCB that forms and its ability to maintain snow showers all the way into Sunday afternoon. I think I’m confident in releasing a 1st call snow map tomorrow at some point.

It is kind of a weird setup, but it isn't a nonsensical one, in my opinion. Looking forward to the map and ensuing discussion!!

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:00 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Where approximately on Long Island (North Shore, western, eastern)? haha

I'm where the green dot is

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Screen11

Well that narrows it down quite a bit haha let me check!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:01 pm

aiannone wrote:Tough pill for scott and I to swallow lol

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Sn10_a74

I'm with you ..sons campus is not open until Jan 21st or we all could road trip to Providence..I miss the dorm days ....lol
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:03 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Surprisingly it looks like you would stay mostly frozen, verbatim. Start as snow, then have a few hours between sleet and snow, and then go back to snow. The north shore effect on full display, I guess haha

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All snow event in KNYC basis soundings.

NAM too.

Any soundings for northern LI?

Surprisingly it looks like you would stay mostly frozen, verbatim. Start as snow, then have a few hours between sleet and snow, and then go back to snow. The north shore effect on full display, I guess haha

Well that sounds nice! I'd take it!

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:10 pm

Well for tonight seems like we have the NAM and GFS vs. the RGEM and CMC. Lets see what the euro does

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:18 pm

i asked earlier do you guys think wsw will be entended into southern westchestern NE NJ and maybe even NYC?
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:i asked earlier do you guys think wsw will be entended into southern westchestern NE NJ and maybe even NYC?

I do, but that's also based on my previous thinking lol

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:i asked earlier do you guys think wsw will be entended into southern westchestern NE NJ and maybe even NYC?

I do, but that's also based on my previous thinking lol
isnt your previous thinking still your current thinking?
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by Irish Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:i asked earlier do you guys think wsw will be entended into southern westchestern NE NJ and maybe even NYC?

I do, but that's also based on my previous thinking lol
isnt your previous thinking still your current thinking?
Yes, he's also mentioned that.
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:28 pm

Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:i asked earlier do you guys think wsw will be entended into southern westchestern NE NJ and maybe even NYC?

I do, but that's also based on my previous thinking lol
isnt your previous thinking still your current thinking?
Yes, he's also mentioned that.
Irish plz give me a break, if you read back i am in a immense amount of pain from a cortizone injection today and my mind is not completely in focus right now, trying to follow best i can.
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:42 pm

I don't think he was trying to be rude, Jman, I think he was just answering your question before I did lol

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:55 pm

UKMET's placement of the 850 hPa low looked good, and its H5 looked decent, as did H7, but the lower levels were torched. It actually looked like the SREFS. Kind of weird.

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Post by Artechmetals Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:UKMET's placement of the 850 hPa low looked good, and its H5 looked decent, as did H7, but the lower levels were torched. It actually looked like the SREFS. Kind of weird.
When will we see the data from the recon sampling ?
And great job as always RB
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:40 am

Artechmetals wrote:
rb924119 wrote:UKMET's placement of the 850 hPa low looked good, and its H5 looked decent, as did H7, but the lower levels were torched. It actually looked like the SREFS. Kind of weird.
When will we see the data from the recon sampling ?
And great job as always RB

It's being ingested in tonight's 00z runs. Personally, I don't think it's made an overwhelming difference over what we would have seen otherwise, though. I don't really understand why they are only sampling the energy itself when the surrounding environment both upstream and downstream are just as, if not more important. But, that's just me lol Anyway, I appreciate the compliment Smile I'm trying, just need that final southeastward push to get there haha

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:52 am

Euro is running....

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:04 am

Looks to me that this run will be warmer than 12z, interior crush job, but waiting on more maps to confirm....

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:07 am

Im here rb yeah realize irish was just responding now. As i said im very on edge due to pain. Cant sleep it sux.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:10 am

A warmer euro would not be good. Seems we are still go have trouble figure out coast till game time possibly.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:11 am

rb924119 wrote:Looks to me that this run will be warmer than 12z, interior crush job, but waiting on more maps to confirm....

Confirmed - pretty much nothing southeast of I-287. Sorry folks. However, I am not completely sold on this yet*. Lets see what happens over the next 24 hours.

Good night.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:12 am

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Screen59

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:18 am

jmanley32 wrote:Im here rb yeah realize irish was just responding now. As i said im very on edge due to pain. Cant sleep it sux.

Sorry to hear, this, man, hope you get better soon!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:40 am

rb924119 wrote:JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 14 Screen59
are you starting to rethink ur idea based off a run of the euro? We had some good model runs tonight for nyc or just north snd west. 12z will b hopefully more agreement. Stick to your guns i think theres still hope. If not whats new right lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:47 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Im here rb yeah realize irish was just responding now. As i said im very on edge due to pain. Cant sleep it sux.

Sorry to hear, this, man, hope you get better soon!!
yeah its crazy. A cortizone injection imobilizes ur arm radiating pain from neck to tricep for me anyways. And this is supposed to help my arthritis. I hope this is worth it!! Tins ibuprophen and tylenol and icing for few days. I cant even use my computer. I was gonna try to work tomorrow but even txt hurts let alone a computer. Ugg sorry i know this is banter.
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:46 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:i asked earlier do you guys think wsw will be entended into southern westchestern NE NJ and maybe even NYC?

I do, but that's also based on my previous thinking lol
isnt your previous thinking still your current thinking?
Yes, he's also mentioned that.
Irish plz give me a break, if you read back i am in a immense amount of pain from a cortizone injection today and my mind is not completely in focus right now, trying to follow best i can.
rb is correct.  I was just answering your question. Sorry about the pain you're in.
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Post by phil155 Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:50 am

I guess those of us along the njtpk, SE of 287 will have to wait a bit longer as this one is just not our storm. For those that do get in on the snow I hope you all enjoy

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:51 am

So the 06z GFS is pretty much holding steady with heavy snow totals north and west of a line from the NW Philly burbs to NYC to the north shore of LI. Right along that line is the battle zone between snow, sleet and rain keeping totals in the 3-6” range and south and east of it you pretty much get skunked with just rain, ver little snow. It also continues to show some enhanced snow for some spots Sunday at storms end from that second wave of energy swinging in behind the storm.
The 06z NAM is what I’ll best describe as being, not good for most. Warmer, rainier and the line separating a 1-3” slopfest from heavy snows is all the way up in extreme NW NJ and the LHV north of the NYC metro.
The best we can hope for with these runs would be that the GFS is right or that the most recent NAM and Euro runs were temporary blips and adjust back colder today.
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