Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[rb924119]

I appreciate the optimism ray. But besides the exact track of the low I guess we have to consider the mesoscale features  upton is pointing out and the major one is the coastal front. That is the kiss of death for LI and NYC and they are expecting one to develop sending warm ocean winds right into us.

It’s not optimism - I’m not blindly saying that it’ll come back. I have reasons for it based on the whole pattern and forcing mechanisms in play.

If I had reasons to think that it will continue to trend north/warmer, I’d say so.

[Frank_Wx]

Idk why people are writing this off. 06z Euro? Way more consolidated than earlier runs, 6” into NYC. It didn’t go any further north. I’m with heehaw, and think this steadily comes back south a bit. We’ll see, but the pattern supports snow for the I-95 Corridor.

Even if NYC is outside of the heaviest snow axis, I prefer if people do not make definitive statements of the storm being “over” because we have a large contingency of members who live N&W of NYC and would like to read analysis. Banter should be in banter. I’m only quoting you because I agree this should not be written off

[rb924119]

SREFs are definitely wetter, no more amplified than they were previously. This is a good sign to me, but we’ll see how today goes.

Actually, looking at other levels as they’re coming out, they are notably improved at 850 hPa.  While not completely closed off in time, there’s certainly an indication of an earlier organization than in previous runs. Again, considering their tendency to be too warm/amplified, this is a good sign.

[DAYBLAZER]

I prefer if people do not make definitive statements of the storm being “over” because we have a large contingency of members who live N&W of NYC and would like to read analysis. Banter should be in banter. I’m only quoting you because I agree this should not be written off

*Raises hand*

Been lurking but paying close attention to all the wonderful analysis you all have been providing. I hope everyone can cash in on something here, even a few inches is better than nothing given the absolutely dreadful winters of the past few years-- even up here in the NWNJ hills.

I must admit I am pressing for this event to come to fruition in at least some capacity up by me-- my now 2 1/2 year old daughter has never seen any sort of decent snowfall, and she's old enough now to enjoy the recreational aspects of it-- sledding, etc. She got very excited this week when I told her it might snow. So I'll keep my fingers crossed for the model runs today.

[Dunnzoo]

GFS snow map assuming 10:1 ratios. Amugs and Dunz in the sweet spot

That confirms it's wrong, mugs and I are NEVER in the sweet spot!

[dsix85]

That’s not a bad look for Long Island

[aiannone]

Sounds like Ray and EPAWA are on the same page

[Irish]

I84 and above enjoy this storm. It looks like your goose is cooked below this point. Hell, those in central and Southern NJ might just see an all rain event, with maybe some mixing here and there.  And the next midweek storm looks to be all rain as well. The next check in looks to be for the 15th-20th time frame. GL to those up north and west.

Hi! Posts like these should be in the banter thread. A storm thread is meant for analysis, maps, questions about the storm, etc.

Apologies, figured I was commenting on the actual storm, and where it looks hit.  I'll avoid commenting unless it's what you mentioned.

[rb924119]

Oh baby:



Much improved over previous runs.

[amugs]

GFS snow map assuming 10:1 ratios. Amugs and Dunz in the sweet spot

That confirms it's wrong, mugs and I are NEVER in the sweet spot!  

HAHAHA!! We werre for Ida and Irene and Floyd!!! Also 2002 Xmas Miracle storm too. We are do, positive vibes sister.
48 hours and recon flights today into the energy on the WC should be telling

[rb924119]

Oh baby:



Much improved over previous runs.

[jmanley32]

GFS snow map assuming 10:1 ratios. Amugs and Dunz in the sweet spot

That confirms it's wrong, mugs and I are NEVER in the sweet spot!  

HAHAHA!! We werre for Ida and Irene and Floyd!!! Also 2002 Xmas Miracle storm too. We are do, positive vibes sister.
48 hours and recon flights today into the energy on the WC should be telling

Hoping ur right mugs, I am in that 11 inch spot, in fact i think that number IS yonkers, pivotal weather is the only forecasting platform that outright puts yonkers on their maps as a point of reference. Not banking on that but it is funny how the GFS was our so called outlier and now it looks better than the other LR models lol. Need to see the SR models look like this. Trying to keep that positive juju even if my gut is saying otherwise. I guess the weather is as bi-polar as I am lol

[jmanley32]

Oh baby:



Much improved over previous runs.

Can you please explain this a bit more, I know this is the upper level jet but what exactly park of the jet am i looking at? how the yellows are over our area now versus previous run and more purple?

[rb924119]

Looks like NAM is ALL SNOW KNYC…..waiting on better maps to confirm.

[jmanley32]

12z NAM is def S & E of previous run but still has coast and NYC as mainly rain, 1 more tick s & E and I think we are in the good stuff, being just north of NYC has actually worked out for me before, just far enough away that it can sometimes snow and change to rain as i hit the south bronx, its amazing how razor thin the rain snow line can be.

[rb924119]

Oh baby:



Much improved over previous runs.

Can you please explain this a bit more, I know this is the upper level jet but what exactly park of the jet am i looking at? how the yellows are over our area now versus previous run and more purple?

Kind of. See how the maximum wind band stretches back toward western PA? That helps expand the zone of forcing for ascent. Additionally, the maximum winds on this run are stronger than in earlier runs, which means the forcing will be stronger than it was before.

[jmanley32]

Looks like NAM is ALL SNOW KNYC…..waiting on better maps to confirm.

Did not look like it to me on TT, but its not very hi-res or close up snow map.

[jmanley32]

Oh baby:



Much improved over previous runs.

Can you please explain this a bit more, I know this is the upper level jet but what exactly park of the jet am i looking at? how the yellows are over our area now versus previous run and more purple?

Kind of. See how the maximum wind band stretches back toward western PA? That helps expand the zone of forcing for ascent. Additionally, the maximum winds on this run are stronger than in earlier runs, which means the forcing will be stronger than it was before.

I just looed closer both of those are 12z runs but different time stamps, was that on purpose? I thought they were comparing the 06z to 12z.

[aiannone]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

[aiannone]

[rb924119]

Looks like NAM is ALL SNOW KNYC…..waiting on better maps to confirm.

Did not look like it to me on TT, but its not very hi-res or close up snow map.

Verbatim they are apparently on the line lol my bad, but Jimminy Crickets you’re right freakin’ thereeeeeeeee lol

Also love how it’s extending the precip shield further west even as the low continues to the east-northeast, which is what we should see in this scenario, as discussed earlier in the week.

[amugs]

The HP placement is a tad 3 mb stronger and about 25-30 miles more S
Good run and hopefully picking up on this.

[rb924119]

Oh baby:



Much improved over previous runs.

Can you please explain this a bit more, I know this is the upper level jet but what exactly park of the jet am i looking at? how the yellows are over our area now versus previous run and more purple?

Kind of. See how the maximum wind band stretches back toward western PA? That helps expand the zone of forcing for ascent. Additionally, the maximum winds on this run are stronger than in earlier runs, which means the forcing will be stronger than it was before.

I just looed closer both of those are 12z runs but different time stamps, was that on purpose? I thought they were comparing the 06z to 12z.

Yeah, that was on purpose to show the evolution.

[jmanley32]

Huge shift of higher totals of snow on 12z NAM but not into NYC, they still see a changover to rain after a few inches max. Hoping this can tick a bit further south, but not enough to put the northern guys out, i think thats possible.

[rb924119]

Huge shift of higher totals of snow on 12z NAM but not into NYC, they still see a changover to rain after a few inches max. Hoping this can tick a bit further south, but not enough to put the northern guys out, i think thats possible.

Trust the process

[amugs]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

[jmanley32]

Looks like NAM is ALL SNOW KNYC…..waiting on better maps to confirm.

Did not look like it to me on TT, but its not very hi-res or close up snow map.

Verbatim they are apparently on the line lol my bad, but Jimminy Crickets you’re right freakin’ thereeeeeeeee lol

Also love how it’s extending the precip shield further west even as the low continues to the east-northeast, which is what we should see in this scenario, as discussed earlier in the week.

I know, I hate how razor sharp the cutoff is, literally 9.5 miles to my north it goes from 2-3 to 6+, amazing, i want to see at least a decent amount into the pink on TT to feel safe. Still thinking this may be a nowcast for NYC and my area even if models do show a change for the better, lots of things at play that change during storms as we have seen many times 2 years ago lol

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