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JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:18 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:WAY colder Smile

Trying to start wrap arounds now - could be interesting for Sunday after a heavy initial thump - like a 2 part storm setting up now Saturday afternoon into night and again Monday morning through mid afternoon if its real of  course!

AND.............. we have take off ladies n gentlemen 0Z NAM just saved the storm LOL!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_37


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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:19 pm

amugs wrote:
amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:WAY colder Smile

Trying to start wrap arounds now - could be interesting for Sunday after a heavy initial thump - like a 2 part storm setting up now Saturday afternoon into night and again Monday morning through mid afternoon if its real of  course!

AND.............. we have take off ladies n gentlemen 0Z NAM just saved the storm LOL!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_37


I LOVE IT WHEN A PLAN COMES TOGETHER!! Lmao I’m getting totally NAM’d here in NEPA too aha

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:19 pm

The shortwave catches up and enhances the surface low close to us.. this is the solution we need

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:21 pm

Wait a freaking minute! What's going on here?!?
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:WAY colder Smile
Don't you mean vloder?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:22 pm

Irish wrote:Wait a freaking minute!  What's going on here?!?

Must be that damn global warming told ya


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by dsix85 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:22 pm

How is that still rain though on Sunday for Long Island?

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:23 pm

WOWZA

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Namconus_asnow_neus_16

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:25 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Irish wrote:Wait a freaking minute!  What's going on here?!?

Must be that damn global warming told ya

🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 

Fantastic, you're all over it now!
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:29 pm

Got to be 2"/hr rates in NEPA/EPA there on Nam 3k.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Nam3k16

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:31 pm

amugs wrote:HREF WHOAA!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 GDGNZU8XkAAUsg3?format=jpg&name=large

It must be geography. I always feel I miss out on the big totals im southern Dutchess. Even in this map you see there is less precipotation between the hudson and CT. What causes thi?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:32 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:
amugs wrote:HREF WHOAA!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 GDGNZU8XkAAUsg3?format=jpg&name=large

It must be geography. I always feel I miss out on the big totals im southern Dutchess. Even in this map you see there is less precipotation between the hudson and CT. What causes thi?

You’re 100% right, it’s due to the topography Smile I used to live right by you in Fishkill, so I know your pain very well haha

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:32 pm

Quakertown Airport clean sounding. Me like that.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Soundi14

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:35 pm

LoL NAM.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Rates10

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:36 pm

The sooner the 850mb low cuts itself free and completes its circulation the snowier it would be along the warmer S&E coasts and towns. Plenty of cold air to be tapped. Its up to the low to do it. Earlier cutoff, stronger inflow, quicker tapping of colder air. Later; warmer.


Simple as this and if we get the trailing vort to get in 3 hours sooner then wow it explodes over GS.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:37 pm

heehaw453 wrote:LoL NAM.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Rates10

I can see 2”/hr with this. You’re maximizing lift, PWAT anomalies, and dendritic growth. Granted, you don’t have super mid or upper level support, but it’ll be enough to get the job done.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:38 pm

amugs wrote:The sooner the 850mb low cuts itself free and completes its circulation the snowier it would be along the warmer S&E coasts and towns. Plenty of cold air to be tapped. Its up to the low to do it. Earlier cutoff, stronger inflow, quicker tapping of colder air. Later; warmer.


Simple as this and if we get the trailing vort to get in 3 hours sooner then wow it explodes over GS.

100% Mugs this whole thing is about timing.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:39 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:39 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:
amugs wrote:HREF WHOAA!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 GDGNZU8XkAAUsg3?format=jpg&name=large

It must be geography. I always feel I miss out on the big totals im southern Dutchess. Even in this map you see there is less precipotation between the hudson and CT. What causes thi?

Unfortunately for you, and RB can probably address this better than I can since I remember he lived in southern Dutchess, East fish kill I believe, one winter. Downsloping, low elevation of the towns near the river in south Dutchess, and the river itself. The east side of the Hudson within 5-10 miles of the river is a well known HV snow hole. It's more prominent in marginal temperature events.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:39 pm

Kuchera which is more realistic. 

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Image_38

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:42 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
2004blackwrx wrote:
amugs wrote:HREF WHOAA!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 GDGNZU8XkAAUsg3?format=jpg&name=large

It must be geography. I always feel I miss out on the big totals im southern Dutchess. Even in this map you see there is less precipotation between the hudson and CT. What causes thi?

Unfortunately for you, and RB can probably address this better than I can since I remember he lived in southern Dutchess, East fish kill I believe, one winter. Downsloping, low elevation of the towns near the river in south Dutchess, and the river itself. The east side of the Hudson within 5-10 miles of the river is a well known HV snow hole. It's more prominent in marginal temperature events.

No need for me to address it any further, you nailed it perfectly haha

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:42 pm

Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Nam73

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:43 pm

amugs wrote:Kuchera which is more realistic. 

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Image_38

I need one more shift like this. Just one. lol

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:43 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Nam73

One more shift heehaw……..can we do it??? Lol

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:44 pm

still time for the last minute shift!

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:44 pm

I cant analyze models like you guys but for southern dutchess im gonna say aroung 8 inches give or take 2 seems to be the consensus on all these runs the last two days. The bullseye always moves but that number stays right around there for me. Im such a snow lover that 8 inches sounds bad even though I havent seen that much in a while. I alway want a Godzilla!.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:46 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Nam73

One more shift heehaw……..can we do it??? Lol

I sure hope so as this board could use some good juju.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:51 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 4 Nam73

One more shift heehaw……..can we do it??? Lol

I sure hope so as this board could use some good juju.

I think you, me, and mugsy are willing this thing back ahaha

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