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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro precip and wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6821
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6822

Why are these the storms that the Shore likes to jackpot on??

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:54 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro precip and wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6821
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6822
I use weather.us all the time but always wondered if it is at all accurate, seeing you post it is it a resource I can use to post? The 3km NAM gust map on that site is nuts.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:55 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Euro precip and wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6821
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6822

Why are these the storms that the Shore likes to jackpot on??
Looks like I'm gonna jackpot on nearly 3 inches+ of rain and gusts to 55+, fun times....
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:11 pm

Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:14 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

I'm going to make sure everything is charged and do all my laundry in case we lose power for an extended period of time. I'm also going to put my icemaker back on Wink

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:18 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

I'm going to make sure everything is charged and do all my laundry in case we lose power for an extended period of time. I'm also going to put my icemaker back on  Wink
And of course we just did grocery shopping grrr, I wasn't thinking.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:19 pm

There's a huge sky scraper crane you know like the one that collapsed in NYC during Sandy hanging over downtown New Rochelle putting up a new building, I sure hope they secure that thing, they can collapse due to being so tall.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:23 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

I'm going to make sure everything is charged and do all my laundry in case we lose power for an extended period of time. I'm also going to put my icemaker back on  Wink

Put our weather radio directly in the sun ..
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:23 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

I'm going to make sure everything is charged and do all my laundry in case we lose power for an extended period of time. I'm also going to put my icemaker back on  Wink
Are you in the advisory or warning? Do you think the warning will be extended inland? I find it hard to believe gusts will only reach 50mph so close to the coast, yeah we are a bit inland but not by much. I bet this overperforms and that's not good. This is a abnormally strong cutter.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:24 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

I'm going to make sure everything is charged and do all my laundry in case we lose power for an extended period of time. I'm also going to put my icemaker back on  Wink

Put our weather radio directly in the sun ..
Do they even still work? Last I heard the station was no longer working in NY, is there another channel I can use? All I get is static.
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:24 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

I'm going to make sure everything is charged and do all my laundry in case we lose power for an extended period of time. I'm also going to put my icemaker back on  Wink

Ok! All wonderful suggestions…thank you! I’ll probably also buy a bag of ice to make sure that the freezer stays cold.

JMan, you got room in the freezer for a bag of ice? That would likely buy you a day or twos worth of refrigeration.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:29 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Other than bringing in projectiles from the porch and yard, are there even any preparations that we can take?

I'm going to make sure everything is charged and do all my laundry in case we lose power for an extended period of time. I'm also going to put my icemaker back on  Wink

Ok! All wonderful suggestions…thank you! I’ll probably also buy a bag of ice to make sure that the freezer stays cold.

JMan, you got room in the freezer for a bag of ice? That would likely buy you a day or twos worth of refrigeration.
Tiny friedge but yeah as we did not buy much. Plus i can crank it all the way up tomorrow evening, hopefully the winds arent too bad yet by 6ish.
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Post by phil155 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:42 pm

What is the thinking regarding sustained winds ? I am thinking away from the coast 25-35ish

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:51 pm

Zoiks 3km NAM, highest winds 3-6 hr period or so. I can't see this verifying but if it does lights out for most. Sorry the site makes it very hard to get a entire area in. Also would not let me save the pic directly, may be my work computer blocking it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/new-jersey/gusts-mph/20240110-0400z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/new-jersey/gusts-mph/20240110-0500z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/new-jersey/gusts-mph/20240110-0600z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/new-jersey/gusts-mph/20240110-0700z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/new-jersey/gusts-mph/20240110-0800z.html
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:01 pm

According to 3KM NAM timing of start of winds 40+ is about 2-4pm tomorrow and increasing to peak from about 1am to 4-5am. Then cuts off like a knife.
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Post by MattyICE Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:30 pm

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_1713

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:39 pm

MattyICE wrote:JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_1713

Oh boy

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:08 pm

Wow

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Wind-g11

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Wind-g10
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:11 pm

NJ Gov. issued a SOE:

https://abc7ny.com/nj-weather-storm-rain-flooding/14296318/

I know its because of passic river mostly but I think Gov. Hochul should also declare a SOE as the rivers here will likely flood too and may be a lot of power outages.
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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Wind-g11

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Wind-g10
this is insane I told my family and friends to make sure there cell phones are charged and make sure they have there flashlights ready just in case

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:28 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Wind-g11

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Wind-g10
this is insane I told my family and friends to make sure there cell phones are charged and make sure they have there flashlights ready just in case
Yeah I have two wx water proof emergency flash lights. My fear is if we really do have no inversion like rb said is more likely along the coast then we could even see pushing 70-75mph locally. I think a general localized max of 65-70 is gonna be seen in places. More frequent 45-65. This is gusts, but the sustained winds cannot be forgotten 6 hrs of sustained winds of 30-40mph is no joke, and the southerly wind could cause more trees falling, the NWS even mentions this as a challenge to the forecast briefing. Will def be interesting to see how this goes down. I am sure Wed morning the area rivers will be flooded here too. We have to remember that all the water from the snow north of here is going to come down into the area and will likely really build up in southern westchester.

For those around the NJ rivers and major flood risks I hope the rainfall is not as high as they say.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:50 pm

I’m not putting a ton of stock into models showing gusts above 70mph. However 60 or 65mph along shore points and over Long Island is very possible. I like this map

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6823

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NJ Gov. issued a SOE:

https://abc7ny.com/nj-weather-storm-rain-flooding/14296318/

I know its because of passic river mostly but I think Gov. Hochul should also declare a SOE as the rivers here will likely flood too and may be  a lot of power outages.
Sorry JMAN but there are 8 rivers in NJ that can reach major flood levels and the shore is going to absolutely raked with moderate to.possibly major tidal flooding, power outages galore and flooding. My man you are so off base poo posing the SOE by Murphy. Absolutely necessary move.

Folks this is going to be rough as Frank638 states. I don't care what wind map you use they are going to cause bigly problems along with dangerous flash floods. The amount of lightening in the Gulf Coast of Texas and LA is off the charts. That's latent heat that will be transported up this way. Sustained 25-35 mph winds are 1 minute plus in length, that's sustained length of time. I teach this with civil engineering section of engineer course I teach.  Gusts can last along at 30 seconds. 
So let's say 30 mph winds for 2 minutes and then the wind ramps up to 46 mph or 52 mph (splitting hairs)for 30 seconds  = big issues or no pause then back down to 27 mph= bigger issues.Thats the scenarios we are looking at.
The psf and.psi are minimal differnces. 
Now you go to 65/70 mph gusts you have big damage.

Repeat thus for 3 or 4 or 5 hours and damages become bad, very bad for some areass.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:42 pm

Don't look at 0Z NAMs they are spitting out SANDY 2.0 winds.

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Post by NJBear Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:00 pm

The NWS says in my area, Hunterdon along rt.22 is 25-30 mph with gusts to 45.  I hope that's correct.  However, they are predicting 65 mph gusts along the coast.

From the 9:30 discussion:

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Firesh10
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:49 pm

Wind warnings and advisories issued by NWS

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 4 Img_6824

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:57 pm

This is such a weird setup for wind lol I'm actually looking at this, I think that the band of max gusts is actually going to be centered on the I-95 Corridor, and not along the immediate coastline, although there will likely be some equally impressive gusts along the coast as well, but I don't think as frequently.

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