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Long Range Thread 28.0

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 03, 2024 11:39 pm

The stock market always crashes when everyone is all in on buying.

I've noticed the same thing with these 2 week in the future pattern changes. When everyone's all in the pattern never seems to change or if it does it's transient, a week or less. Just a weather hardened skeptics view.

As always I'd love to be proven wrong.

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Post by Irish Sun Feb 04, 2024 12:13 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The stock market always crashes when everyone is all in on buying.

I've noticed the same thing with these 2 week in the future pattern changes. When everyone's all in the pattern never seems to change or if it does it's transient, a week or less. Just a weather hardened skeptics view.

As always I'd love to be proven wrong.
Well said. We can't predict what a storm that's 36-48 hours out will do. How the hell can we expect to believe in overhaul changes in the pattern that are 2 weeks out?

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 04, 2024 6:06 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The stock market always crashes when everyone is all in on buying.

I've noticed the same thing with these 2 week in the future pattern changes. When everyone's all in the pattern never seems to change or if it does it's transient, a week or less. Just a weather hardened skeptics view.

As always I'd love to be proven wrong.

One thing that stuck with me from the Bill Evans Channel 7 board was when he said "models are for guidance purposes only".Encouraging to see the models suggesting a good change for us but whether it translates into sensible weather is another issue.
As a classic movie said once "hope is a good thing"!
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Post by phil155 Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:32 am

If nothing else I think it looks like we at least have a chance but we will see what actually comes to fruition

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:30 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The stock market always crashes when everyone is all in on buying.

I've noticed the same thing with these 2 week in the future pattern changes. When everyone's all in the pattern never seems to change or if it does it's transient, a week or less. Just a weather hardened skeptics view.

As always I'd love to be proven wrong.

The contrarian view is a good thing IMO and a hedge is often your best defense against losing BIG $$$ and in this case big time disappointment.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 04, 2024 8:56 am

I like the period around the 12th as the first shot at something light/moderate. Let me start by saying it favors the interior, but not by a large margin. If the coastal plain gets in on the act you can thank 50/50 for it and the rising PNA. I cannot stress enough how important the 50/50 is for the coast. They compress the southerly flow out ahead of the approaching storm. That locks in cold air and often sets up a boundary that more often that not sinks further south very quickly.

EPS teleconnections for 2/12
AO -1.25 (rapidly moving further negative)
NAO -1 (moving further negative)
PNA +1 (rapidly moving further positive)
EPO neutral

All that looks pretty good to me for something right to the coastal plain. I don't think a cutter is likely as some OP models maybe trying to show. I think the tracking starts with this one...


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Eps2-110

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:11 am

I don't think this is the Nina head fakes of the last 2 years. Nah. Now whether YBY has a memorable period of snowfall between 2/12-beginning of March one should be skeptical IMO. Parts of the east coast will I think, but where is the question.

SOI values

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Soi15

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 04, 2024 2:28 pm

Take this 12Z Euro OP surface map with a grain of salt at this range. I get that. However, there's very strong consensus from the ALL major model ensembles teleconnections for the below. Spidey sense is tingling for this time period and this OP representation is consistent with those teleconnections. This type of pattern models USUALLY start showing colder scenarios as it gets closer for the reasons I've mentioned (50/50 with building -NAO). What can mess it up is some really amped s/w.

AO -1.25 (rapidly moving further negative)
NAO -1 (moving further negative)
PNA +1 (rapidly moving further positive)
EPO neutral

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf34

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Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:27 am

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Img_2810
Even Othelia is noticing
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:04 am

Potentially amaze balls pattern still on track, transition between 10th-14th.  My guess is that by mid to late week we start to see some epic fantasy storms showing up.  Not much else to say that hasn't already.
Just have to be patient.  

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2F5wWf7H0qoWaNnkZBucU%2F200.gif%3Fcid%3D790b76114w1akc1pr73l90w3mthosul8r8yqavjqc43usqcs%26rid%3D200

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:05 am

The guidance is not backing off this mid-month winter weather favorability. SOI values are severely tanking and EPS shows a severe drop in the AO. What I am starting to be become more on board with is this isn't going to be quick change back. It probably has to do with the PV coupling and weakened state to enable such a NAM state. I know Mugs and Sroc have been all over that. The other thing that I'm starting to feel more comfortable with is the weather is going to turn colder before 2/15. I'm starting to think 2/12 is when that process starts.

SOI values
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Soi16

EPS AO values
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Eps98

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:08 pm

I continue to like the 2/13 period. The teleconnections really start aligning then.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Gefs82
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Gefs219
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Gefs310

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:13 pm

The good news for the skeptics among us is that this is no longer a forecast pattern change that is still two or three weeks from now. The actual pattern change is already starting to show up in most of the 10-14 day outlooks and probably is only about 7 days from commencing at this point.
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Post by HectorO Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:14 pm

billg315 wrote:The good news for the skeptics among us is that this is no longer a forecast pattern change that is still two or three weeks from now. The actual pattern change is already starting to show up in most of the 10-14 day outlooks and probably is only about 7 days from commencing at this point.

I feel like 10-14 day Outlook has been said for a pattern change for 2 years now LOL.
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Post by Irish Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:53 pm

HectorO wrote:
billg315 wrote:The good news for the skeptics among us is that this is no longer a forecast pattern change that is still two or three weeks from now. The actual pattern change is already starting to show up in most of the 10-14 day outlooks and probably is only about 7 days from commencing at this point.

I feel like 10-14 day Outlook has been said for a pattern change for 2 years now LOL.
And then we get to that time period and we're let down again.  I hope it doesn't happen again but am surely hesitant to buy- in.
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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 05, 2024 11:49 pm

Operational models are really struggling with this pattern change. The run to run differences are laughable.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 06, 2024 6:49 am

The 12th/13th still bears watching. For those saying no banana H on this one like I always harp on. Usually I am against decent snowfall chances w/out that for the coastal plain, but not this time.  Split flow jet and a western ridge popping. N/S interaction is the key with this one and based on the h5 LW pattern it's plausible that this does develop into a powerful storm. The other reason the high to the north isn't as critical here is due to the compressed southerly flow compliments of the 50/50 trough in the Atlantic.  IMO the teleconnections support a strong storm, but I'm going to be conservative for now with my expectations. For now...

300mb jet streak
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf35

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 06, 2024 7:09 am

heehaw453 wrote:The 12th/13th still bears watching. For those saying no banana H on this one like I always harp on. Usually I am against decent snowfall chances w/out that for the coastal plain, but not this time.  Split flow jet and a western ridge popping. N/S interaction is the key with this one and based on the h5 LW pattern it's plausible that this does develop into a powerful storm. The other reason the high to the north isn't as critical here is due to the compressed southerly flow compliments of the 50/50 trough in the Atlantic.  IMO the teleconnections support a strong storm, but I'm going to be conservative for now with my expectations. For now...

300mb jet streak
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf35

I know exactly where your head is at here, and Im not disagreeing at all.  It does need to be pointed out however that this potential moves in on the heals of a warm antecedent airmass.  That, and the 50/50 is more like 50/50-ISH depending on the model and the individual run.   Without the HP to the north timing and positioning in the  Atlantic, and as you said timing with the n/s will be critical. If that 50/50-ish low drifts too far north then this wont amt to anything meaningful.  Ill use marginal to compliment your conservative to describe expectations...for now.  What a Face

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 06, 2024 8:38 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The 12th/13th still bears watching. For those saying no banana H on this one like I always harp on. Usually I am against decent snowfall chances w/out that for the coastal plain, but not this time.  Split flow jet and a western ridge popping. N/S interaction is the key with this one and based on the h5 LW pattern it's plausible that this does develop into a powerful storm. The other reason the high to the north isn't as critical here is due to the compressed southerly flow compliments of the 50/50 trough in the Atlantic.  IMO the teleconnections support a strong storm, but I'm going to be conservative for now with my expectations. For now...

300mb jet streak
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf35

I know exactly where your head is at here, and Im not disagreeing at all.  It does need to be pointed out however that this potential moves in on the heals of a warm antecedent airmass.  That, and the 50/50 is more like 50/50-ISH depending on the model and the individual run.   Without the HP to the north timing and positioning in the  Atlantic, and as you said timing with the n/s will be critical. If that 50/50-ish low drifts too far north then this wont amt to anything meaningful.   Ill use marginal to compliment your conservative to describe expectations...for now.  What a Face

100% agree. Too far out for too much excitement on this one. However, look at the h5 map for D6 on 06Z EPS. I like it and I'm not as concerned with antecedent air mass in this setup. Rockies ridge, trough in the Atlantic being pulled west, cold air oozing down on the backside of the ULL in the deep south. You also have the start of the AK ridging. That setup is favorable for NYC snowfall or at least it used to be.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Epsh511

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:12 am

HectorO wrote:
billg315 wrote:The good news for the skeptics among us is that this is no longer a forecast pattern change that is still two or three weeks from now. The actual pattern change is already starting to show up in most of the 10-14 day outlooks and probably is only about 7 days from commencing at this point.

I feel like 10-14 day Outlook has been said for a pattern change for 2 years now LOL.

I know that is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but in a literal sense I would disagree. I think everyone here knows I'm not a big fan of hanging a hat on long-range predictions, for the very reason that they can be very unreliable. However, in my experience, usually when the 7-14 day forecast shows a cold pattern, it has happened (as it did in mid-January). To the extent "hoped-for" pattern changes have not materialized the last couple winters they have generally been those that were predicted/indicated several weeks out, not those in the short-term forecast. At this point with all the forecast models pretty much showing a stretch of normal to below normal temps from Feb. 14 though 20 (at least) I'd be surprised if it didn't happen in some form. How long it persists, is a different question.
That said, it also should be stated that 1.) this doesn't look like extreme cold, just more typical below normal temps; and 2.) just because temps will be running slightly below normal, doesn't mean we'll get snow. It is entirely possible we get a stretch of BN temps but it corresponds to a lack of storm activity, i.e. a cold dry period. That can happen too.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:23 am

billg315 wrote:
HectorO wrote:
billg315 wrote:The good news for the skeptics among us is that this is no longer a forecast pattern change that is still two or three weeks from now. The actual pattern change is already starting to show up in most of the 10-14 day outlooks and probably is only about 7 days from commencing at this point.

I feel like 10-14 day Outlook has been said for a pattern change for 2 years now LOL.

I know that is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but in a literal sense I would disagree. I think everyone here knows I'm not a big fan of hanging a hat on long-range predictions, for the very reason that they can be very unreliable. However, in my experience, usually when the 7-14 day forecast shows a cold pattern, it has happened (as it did in mid-January). To the extent "hoped-for" pattern changes have not materialized the last couple winters they have generally been those that were predicted/indicated several weeks out, not those in the short-term forecast. At this point with all the forecast models pretty much showing a stretch of normal to below normal temps from Feb. 14 though 20 (at least) I'd be surprised if it didn't happen in some form. How long it persists, is a different question.
That said, it also should be stated that 1.) this doesn't look like extreme cold, just more typical below normal temps; and 2.) just because temps will be running slightly below normal, doesn't mean we'll get snow. It is entirely possible we get a stretch of BN temps but it corresponds to a lack of storm activity, i.e. a cold dry period. That can happen too.

I also think people equate "pattern change" with 1-3 feet of snow in their backyard. We have plenty of pattern changes predicted well in advanced, but not have the snow outcome that people desired; therefore, it is deemed the "pattern change" that did not happen. That said we certainly have had LR head fakes as well.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:27 am

Regarding 2/12-13.
Expect models to continue to go back/forth on the s/w interactions for the next day or two so you will see wildly different surface maps. After that I think they will home in on a solution towards end of week. My thought is either a powerful storm with negative h5 tilt or it's pushed OTS as the n/s doesn't engage the s/s. I don't think this works too well w/out the n/s providing cold air and additional energy.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:31 am

sroc4 wrote:
billg315 wrote:
HectorO wrote:
billg315 wrote:The good news for the skeptics among us is that this is no longer a forecast pattern change that is still two or three weeks from now. The actual pattern change is already starting to show up in most of the 10-14 day outlooks and probably is only about 7 days from commencing at this point.

I feel like 10-14 day Outlook has been said for a pattern change for 2 years now LOL.

I know that is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but in a literal sense I would disagree. I think everyone here knows I'm not a big fan of hanging a hat on long-range predictions, for the very reason that they can be very unreliable. However, in my experience, usually when the 7-14 day forecast shows a cold pattern, it has happened (as it did in mid-January). To the extent "hoped-for" pattern changes have not materialized the last couple winters they have generally been those that were predicted/indicated several weeks out, not those in the short-term forecast. At this point with all the forecast models pretty much showing a stretch of normal to below normal temps from Feb. 14 though 20 (at least) I'd be surprised if it didn't happen in some form. How long it persists, is a different question.
That said, it also should be stated that 1.) this doesn't look like extreme cold, just more typical below normal temps; and 2.) just because temps will be running slightly below normal, doesn't mean we'll get snow. It is entirely possible we get a stretch of BN temps but it corresponds to a lack of storm activity, i.e. a cold dry period. That can happen too.

I also think people equate "pattern change" with 1-3 feet of snow in their backyard. We have plenty of pattern changes predicted well in advanced, but not have the snow outcome that people desired; therefore, it is deemed the "pattern change" that did not happen.  That said we certainly have had LR head fakes as well.  

This is a good point also. Temps Friday through Sunday will be in the upper 50s around here. They are forecast to be in the 30s with lows in the teens for most of the latter part of next week and possibly into the week after, yet I'm sure if there are no big snowstorms, it will not be deemed by some a pattern change. Even though it clearly is.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 06, 2024 1:54 pm

This is the primary reason I'm thinking a colder solution for 2-13 as shown by the 12Z Euro. It's consistent with NAO going more negative. I think the Atlantic trough is going to link up with n/s energy as the NAO pushes on it as i was alluding to before with the EPS. The key to this will be if the n/s can engage with the s/s at the right time. My thought is the PNA drops the n/s into the s/s and part of the n/s links up with the Atlantic trough essentially clearing out the antecedent ridge. Not the easiest setup in the world that's for sure because the n/s may act to deflect the developing storm too.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 06, 2024 2:32 pm

EPS has some bombs for 2/13

Good n/s interaction.


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Eps111
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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Eps311

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 06, 2024 2:49 pm

heehaw453 wrote:EPS has some bombs for 2/13

Good n/s interaction.


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Eps111
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Hello My Pretty! 😍🥰😘

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 06, 2024 2:53 pm

Very tricky setup with the Feb. 12/13 threat. The Euro Op run is a southern slider, but this needs to be watched. Like Heehaw said it’s all about the timing with the northern and southern energies. My gut tells me it’s unfortunately one of those all or nothing events, and with our luck lately I’m not feeling very confident.
nutleyblizzard
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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

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