Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

[amugs]

El Nino is fading - little to late for our needs this winter...as usual!!
As Damien said" Can't catch a break!!"

3.4



1.2 All but gone


This is very interesting and what screwed up (kind language here) our winter in January!!! The massive warming of the Pac off the East Coast of Australia that promoted the phase of the MJO going to 4,5,6 - ARGGHH! - AGAIN CAN'T FRIGGING WIN....NOT ONE , ONE MODEL SAW THIS OR HAD THIS EVEN THORUGH DEC!!!!!

Predictions in Nov by Euro Seasonal Forecast SST


Close Up




What happened - REALLY?? One explanation is the uptick in underwater, submarine level volcanoes as JB points out



CLOSE UP

[dkodgis]

Volcanoes are off model. Models are iterations but do not have all variables considered because of the ongoing complexity of forecasting. Only Doc knows all. He is older than Google

[Frank_Wx]

Great post Mugs. We got screwed again.

I will say though - the period after Feb 10th looks exciting. There is a lot to like on long range guidance right now. I couldn’t say the same this time last week.

The emergence of the -EPO and -NAO should lead to at least 2 if not 3 storm chances in the mid Feb time frame. Maybe with El Niño weakening - as Mugs pointed out - we will find more natural phasing between the northern and southern branches. One can hope!

[heehaw453]

We need to get to this place as it's the place of big snow storm potential. Watch for Valentine's Day for starters and see if the trends continue favorably. There's not reason to doubt it yet, but like Public Enemy said "Don't believe the hype" you may hear on social media (not here per se) until this holds within a week and even better starts moving up in time.

[heehaw453]

If this trough for the 50/50 L opens sooner (say 6 hours) to allow N/S energy merging with the S/S, then E LI is going to get dumped on for the 2/5 threat. The storm would get pulled enough towards the coast to clip eastern zones. As it is Cape Cod might get clipped. What's clear is the 50/50 is getting sucked into the S/S, but it's a tad late...  Note how the ULL just is bullying the Omega block. Impressive even if it does miss wide right which is more likely than not.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1706724000-1707080400-1707253200-40.gif

[dkodgis]

Sorry. Couldn’t help it.

Since Heehaw mentioned Cape Cod…

https://youtu.be/nLClv1i_SLc?feature=shared

[Frank_Wx]

Models are beginning to hone in on our next real chance for snow. February 12th-15th.

If the EURO Ensembles are anywhere near accurate - this will be the most prolific western ridging we have seen YET this winter (+PNA/-EPO). It's pointed polewards, the axis is favorably positioned, and it disrupts the PV (-AO) to force a trough over the eastern CONUS. Madonne, this is gorgeous gorgeous gorgeous look.

[sroc4]

Models are beginning to hone in on our next real chance for snow. February 12th-15th.

If the EURO Ensembles are anywhere near accurate - this will be the most prolific western ridging we have seen YET this winter (+PNA/-EPO). It's pointed polewards, the axis is favorably positioned, and it disrupts the PV (-AO) to force a trough over the eastern CONUS. Madonne, this is gorgeous gorgeous gorgeous look.

Couldn't agree more Frank.  It's what winter weather weenie's dreams are made out of.  GEFS have the same idea.  As of now it's in fantasy/dream land, BUT I will say there is a lot to like between the SOI, MJO progression, Strat changes (both current and forecasted changes), weakening El Nino etc that support this look to develop.  Cautious optimism needed for sure.  

[billg315]

Seems to be lots of signals pointing not just to the mid-February storm opportunity but to a sustained period of cold and active weather through the end of the month into the beginning of March. Let's hope this all comes together.

[Koroptim]

I’ve followed Joe B for a long time. He takes a lot of heat for being snow biased, but I think that is overdone. Anyway, I’ve rarely seen him as bullish and excited as he is about the Feb15-Mar15 timeframe.

[SENJsnowman]

I’ve followed Joe B for a long time.  He takes a lot of heat for being snow biased, but I think that is overdone.  Anyway, I’ve rarely seen him as bullish and excited as he is about the Feb15-Mar15 timeframe.  

Same exact thing with NorEasterNick who covers Southern Jersey and the Philly metro area. Well, actually, he usually downplays snow potential for his coverage area but he said two months ago he liked the potential of the second half of this winter A LOT more than the first half. And now he is beyond excited for the same time frame, Feb 15-March 15.

And all week he has been saying to be patient…and I quote to “trust the process”. Hmmm…that sounds familiar!  lol. Speaking of which, what say you RB-wan-Kenobe?

[phil155]

I’ve followed Joe B for a long time.  He takes a lot of heat for being snow biased, but I think that is overdone.  Anyway, I’ve rarely seen him as bullish and excited as he is about the Feb15-Mar15 timeframe.  

Same exact thing with NorEasterNick who covers Southern Jersey and the Philly metro area. Well, actually, he usually downplays snow potential for his coverage area but he said two months ago he liked the potential of the second half of this winter A LOT more than the first half. And now he is beyond excited for the same time frame, Feb 15-March 15.

And all week he has been saying to be patient…and I quote to “trust the process”. Hmmm…that sounds familiar!  lol. Speaking of which, what say you RB-wan-Kenobe?

Bobby at EPWA is more bullish on this time period as well and has been for a while. Granted most of us are pretty far behind in terms of snow bur it would really only take one good storm and from the sounds of what these folks are saying we are Bout 2 weeks from go time.

[amugs]

One of the most notable features appearing on consecutive ECMWF Weeklies runs is the presence of a retrograding Greenland block in tandem with ridging into the Arctic Ocean. These two features coexisting can lead to prolonged periods of cold, stormy weather in the US and Europe. pic.twitter.com/nztTllZhhg

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) February 2, 2024

[amugs]

If this reversal of the strat at 10,30 and 50MB does happen then we can delay Spring contrary to what the varmint groundhog said today LOL!



BIGLY strat warming

[frank 638]

Amugs last night Lee Goldberg was saying a pattern change is coming from Feb 15 to march 15 th to a colder and possibly of a snowy pattern ! What do you think of this

[amugs]

From JB

The Greatest SOI crash in Feb since 1978 is evolving A sign the MJO is on the move. The positive helped return us to a La Nina base state for a couple of weeks and there is a delay. But now here comes the crash. Here is the temp for these years with such and Mod to Strong El Nino.



I have to say if this doesn't pan out in the next two weeks pattern wise this winter goes down up there with last winter. Time will tell.

[amugs]

Amugs last night Lee Goldberg was saying a pattern change is coming from Feb 15 to march 15 th to a colder and possibly of a snowy pattern ! What do you think of this

From what I am seeing on Chi200 Velocity maps and Strat maps he stole exactly what we've said here for the past few days LOL!
IF it doesn't happen we blame him and the rest of the pro mets who MUSH every storm since 2011

[dkodgis]

Qué será, será. The future is not ours to see, snow or rainbows

https://youtu.be/SdhAfMor9BM?feature=shared

[heehaw453]

If this pattern evolves to something like this and MBY doesn't score at least 5-10" of snowfall out of it, then probably time to seek another hobby.

The long wave pattern has been consistently advertised and has great consensus. It's coming. Before that though the Omega block is going to hurt snowfall twice 1/it suppresses a major snow storm on the 5th, 2/its corresponding ridge will pass over the area next weekend and cause a warm air mass.

Now how long does it take the airmass to get suitable for snow? Interior is favored until that happens. My guess after 2/17ish coastal plain is in the game. I think 2/12-16 interior is favored.  Next is how long does the great long wave pattern last? I wouldn't go anymore than 10 days for starters. It could be more and spill into March, but that call is bold right now. We don't have enough data to suggest blocking sets up shop a la March 2018.

I would expect in the next week models start picking up on this and you start to see some interesting digital snowfall maps.

[amugs]

Teles show the change in about 10 days:

AO & NAO goes N which allows cold air to filter down





PNA goes Positive again around the 12th - coincide with Hee Sweatheart Storm??


EPO goes N around the 12/13th which when it does it can drill the cold polar flow in from Siberia aka the Siberian Express.



Time will tell ......only 10 days away as per the usual!

VERY LR - Hcane season maybe one the worst, active since 2017, 2005 as per analog charts, maps and SST forecasts.

One thing to note from just listening to JB and dawned on me that is staring us right in the face, the PAC SST are and have been since the Godzilla El Nino in 2015-16 on Fire and have had very little let up. Even going back to the 97-98 EL Nino the oceans have warmed greatly. SO when we get the PAC JET extension going this has been MUCH warmer than in the past due to the SST being AN. Food for thought. This coincide nicely with the Solar Max over the last 40 years so far

[heehaw453]

Looking at the upper jet stream and I start to see it buckle in Southern CA that tells me abundant moisture is going to be pumped into the EC via STJ and colder air will spill into the lower 48 as the jet is far enough south. It makes sense if you look at the southern oscillation index values too. The split flow shown can allow for n/s enhancement to a developing storm. As I stated before there will be parts of the EC that are sig AN snowfall this month. Cannot imagine this gets anywhere near 2010, but folks hoping for double digits second half of February would seem reasonable based on what I see at least. Yes that's normal for many but "normal" varies quite a bit year to year.

[MattyICE]

Looking at the upper jet stream and I start to see it buckle in Southern CA that tells me abundant moisture is going to be pumped into the EC via STJ and colder air will spill into the lower 48 as the jet is far enough south. It makes sense if you look at the southern oscillation index values too. The split flow shown can allow for n/s enhancement to a developing storm. As I stated before there will be parts of the EC that are sig AN snowfall this month. Cannot imagine this gets anywhere near 2010, but folks hoping for double digits second half of February would seem reasonable based on what I see at least. Yes that's normal for many but "normal" varies quite a bit year to year.

Wow. Look at that textbook split flow out west. Beautiful.

[heehaw453]

The modelled jet stream is giving clues to potential. I don't see can kicking with what's being advertised. IMO it might take until after 2/20 for the Atlantic to bottleneck enough as the blocking matures for high order magnitude event potential. Before that I expect the interior to be in the game after 2/12 and coastal plain shortly thereafter (few days). Initially light/moderate stuff.

If it comes through to full fruition you see something like this maybe once in ten years. Maybe.  Also of note is the EPS and other guidance is throwing a strong signal for intense HL blocking. That kind of blocking as it links with Scandy ridge doesn't go anywhere fast. It sits and grows and retrogrades. 10 days minimum if that block swells like that.

I still am keeping my expectations at normal monthly snowfall due to losing half the month and the chaos of weather. But if this does align then believe you me that will bust low.

[sroc4]

Was going to make some comments this am but honestly Heehaw has it all covered. Really couldnt say it much better.

[dkodgis]

Well. I’m satisfied.

I am very pleasantly surprised that everywhere I look, meteorologists and avid weather birds seem to be universally agreeing that mid-Feb into mid-March the stars are aligned for big changes, cold temps, and snow.

Even Fidel Castro couldn’t get these pluralities.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The stock market always crashes when everyone is all in on buying.

I've noticed the same thing with these 2 week in the future pattern changes. When everyone's all in the pattern never seems to change or if it does it's transient, a week or less. Just a weather hardened skeptics view.

As always I'd love to be proven wrong.

[Irish]

The stock market always crashes when everyone is all in on buying.

I've noticed the same thing with these 2 week in the future pattern changes. When everyone's all in the pattern never seems to change or if it does it's transient, a week or less. Just a weather hardened skeptics view.

As always I'd love to be proven wrong.

Well said. We can't predict what a storm that's 36-48 hours out will do. How the hell can we expect to believe in overhaul changes in the pattern that are 2 weeks out?

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