Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

[phil155]

I was watching the EPAWA weather weeklies today it  appears all those calling for winter to end soon will be correct and the storm we just had may very well be the last snow storm of the year….

I watched it too.  You can tell by the way he talked he sounded very disappointed.  

If that’s the case I rate this winter a D-.

I would rate it the same except I ended up with over 10 inches in this last storm so I would say a d. while snow totals got a nice bump with this last storm and that is appreciated overall it did not feel like a real winter in a sense. There was no sustained real cold at any point. If it would have been colder with same or even a little less snow I would rate it higher because it would feel like winter

[Coachgriff]

It does look like Spring is coming sooner rather than later. Overall I give this Winter a B. Right around 10 inches for the season in my part of Mercer County. Given that Winter was on injured-reserve for two years this was a hell of a season! Hoping for continued improvement next Winter!

[sroc4]

End of the week system is def not looking good.  Timing of the n/s and s/s just aint right, at least as currently modeled, because some of the bigger pattern factors have trended less favorable. The bigg ULL that Frank mentioned in a prev post that once was well off shore out over the Pac, has trended further east and is now forecast near the WC.  This unfort shifts everything(n/s & s/s interactions) in our neck of the woods off the EC.  It's not done yet, still on life support, but we are going to need to see some brain activity soon on this threat, by Tu/We the absolute latest, or its time to pull the plug.  

Re the end of winter...if end of this week threat doesnt work out, and by all accts that seems likely, then current modeling hints at the idea that snow chances while not 0%, will be VERY very hard to come by through at  least the first 7-10days of March.  That said there is a strat warming going on, the results of which tend to take about 3 weeks or so to show up.  So while modeling does not show alot in the way of winter weather, Id argue that a late season run of a storm or two is still on the table.  Obv late in the season always favors off the coast, but doesn't exclude the coastal plain.  Storm track has to be right.

Look if its over its over.  Its def been a better season of tracking across the board for sure compared to last year.  Going back to my rebuilding a football team analogy from a couple months ago, Im pretty sure regardless of where you live the team def made improvements from last years team.  We still have a decent accumulation of draft picks, solid up and coming young players, and few savvy veterans to help guide the youth of the team in the right direction.  I for one remain optimistic about the future.

As a side note Ray (rb) finally got back to me.  He is totally fine.  He has been grinding away; making things happen for himself in the real world.  

That is all for now

[weatherwatchermom]

End of the week system is def not looking good.  Timing of the n/s and s/s just aint right, at least as currently modeled, because some of the bigger pattern factors have trended less favorable. The bigg ULL that Frank mentioned in a prev post that once was well off shore out over the Pac, has trended further east and is now forecast near the WC.  This unfort shifts everything(n/s & s/s interactions) in our neck of the woods off the EC.  It's not done yet, still on life support, but we are going to need to see some brain activity soon on this threat, by Tu/We the absolute latest, or its time to pull the plug.  

Re the end of winter...if end of this week threat doesnt work out, and by all accts that seems likely, then current modeling hints at the idea that snow chances while not 0%, will be VERY very hard to come by through at  least the first 7-10days of March.  That said there is a strat warming going on, the results of which tend to take about 3 weeks or so to show up.  So while modeling does not show alot in the way of winter weather, Id argue that a late season run of a storm or two is still on the table.  Obv late in the season always favors off the coast, but doesn't exclude the coastal plain.  Storm track has to be right.

Look if its over its over.  Its def been a better season of tracking across the board for sure compared to last year.  Going back to my rebuilding a football team analogy from a couple months ago, Im pretty sure regardless of where you live the team def made improvements from last years team.  We still have a decent accumulation of draft picks, solid up and coming young players, and few savvy veterans to help guide the youth of the team in the right direction.  I for one remain optimistic about the future.  

As a side note Ray (rb) finally got back to me.  He is totally fine.  He has been grinding away; making things happen for himself in the real world.  

That is all for now

Thanks for the the post...def not what we think winter should be..but 1000 percent better than last year..lol I don't want winter to be over just yet.. BUT I was reading how warm the waters are in the Atlantic and  along with other factors could make this hurricane season a bit more active

[Irish]

End of the week system is def not looking good.  Timing of the n/s and s/s just aint right, at least as currently modeled, because some of the bigger pattern factors have trended less favorable. The bigg ULL that Frank mentioned in a prev post that once was well off shore out over the Pac, has trended further east and is now forecast near the WC.  This unfort shifts everything(n/s & s/s interactions) in our neck of the woods off the EC.  It's not done yet, still on life support, but we are going to need to see some brain activity soon on this threat, by Tu/We the absolute latest, or its time to pull the plug.  

Re the end of winter...if end of this week threat doesnt work out, and by all accts that seems likely, then current modeling hints at the idea that snow chances while not 0%, will be VERY very hard to come by through at  least the first 7-10days of March.  That said there is a strat warming going on, the results of which tend to take about 3 weeks or so to show up.  So while modeling does not show alot in the way of winter weather, Id argue that a late season run of a storm or two is still on the table.  Obv late in the season always favors off the coast, but doesn't exclude the coastal plain.  Storm track has to be right.

Look if its over its over.  Its def been a better season of tracking across the board for sure compared to last year.  Going back to my rebuilding a football team analogy from a couple months ago, Im pretty sure regardless of where you live the team def made improvements from last years team.  We still have a decent accumulation of draft picks, solid up and coming young players, and few savvy veterans to help guide the youth of the team in the right direction.  I for one remain optimistic about the future.  

As a side note Ray (rb) finally got back to me.  He is totally fine.  He has been grinding away; making things happen for himself in the real world.  

That is all for now

Had a feeling this post was coming. I was reading up on things back a bit and wasn't likely the look. 

In regard to Ray, unacceptable!  Missed 2 storms all on a count of real world stuff. Demerits!   

It was a decent winter, looking towards spring now. Thx for all the great tracking guys!  See you around the way.

[dkodgis]

I have a few mid March pictures showing good snows around these here parts and memories of Crocus and Forsythia peeking and getting covered with snow. My reconnoissance tells me warming Feb until at the end of this month, a few weeks of cold in March. As Doc was kind enough to point out…”Ya gotta have heart!”

Sorry Doc. No Bronx accent here!

[jmanley32]

Are we really throwing the white flag mid feb? I am torn abput my grad granted did better than last yr but still sparse winter. Maybe a C.

[frank 638]

I have a few mid March pictures showing good snows around these here parts and memories of Crocus and Forsythia peeking and getting covered with snow. My reconnoissance tells me warming Feb until at the end of this month, a few weeks of cold in March. As Doc was kind enough to point out…”Ya gotta have heart!”

Sorry Doc. No Bronx accent here!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

End of the week system is def not looking good.  Timing of the n/s and s/s just aint right, at least as currently modeled, because some of the bigger pattern factors have trended less favorable. The bigg ULL that Frank mentioned in a prev post that once was well off shore out over the Pac, has trended further east and is now forecast near the WC.  This unfort shifts everything(n/s & s/s interactions) in our neck of the woods off the EC.  It's not done yet, still on life support, but we are going to need to see some brain activity soon on this threat, by Tu/We the absolute latest, or its time to pull the plug.  

Re the end of winter...if end of this week threat doesnt work out, and by all accts that seems likely, then current modeling hints at the idea that snow chances while not 0%, will be VERY very hard to come by through at  least the first 7-10days of March.  That said there is a strat warming going on, the results of which tend to take about 3 weeks or so to show up.  So while modeling does not show alot in the way of winter weather, Id argue that a late season run of a storm or two is still on the table.  Obv late in the season always favors off the coast, but doesn't exclude the coastal plain.  Storm track has to be right.

Look if its over its over.  Its def been a better season of tracking across the board for sure compared to last year.  Going back to my rebuilding a football team analogy from a couple months ago, Im pretty sure regardless of where you live the team def made improvements from last years team.  We still have a decent accumulation of draft picks, solid up and coming young players, and few savvy veterans to help guide the youth of the team in the right direction.  I for one remain optimistic about the future.  

As a side note Ray (rb) finally got back to me.  He is totally fine.  He has been grinding away; making things happen for himself in the real world.  

That is all for now

Had a feeling this post was coming. I was reading up on things back a bit and wasn't likely the look. 

In regard to Ray, unacceptable!  Missed 2 storms all on a count of real world stuff. Demerits!   

It was a decent winter, looking towards spring now. Thx for all the great tracking guys!  See you around the way.

Wow do you set a low bar, and just saw Jmans post a C!!!!!!!!!, WHAT? Have our expectations of Winter, even in our new mild period gotten this bad.

I'm at 29.3 inches for the season and this Winter is a solid D, probably a D- when I factor in way above normal temperature, lack of sustained snow cover, lack of ice etc. no sub zero days, only one single digit day which would break a 100 year record.

I like winter for the whole Winter seasonal experience, If I somehow get to my seasonal average of 50 with a 20 inch snow storm at the end of March that melts in three days the Winters still a D. I guess everyone has their own grading system.

[weatherwatchermom]

End of the week system is def not looking good.  Timing of the n/s and s/s just aint right, at least as currently modeled, because some of the bigger pattern factors have trended less favorable. The bigg ULL that Frank mentioned in a prev post that once was well off shore out over the Pac, has trended further east and is now forecast near the WC.  This unfort shifts everything(n/s & s/s interactions) in our neck of the woods off the EC.  It's not done yet, still on life support, but we are going to need to see some brain activity soon on this threat, by Tu/We the absolute latest, or its time to pull the plug.  

Re the end of winter...if end of this week threat doesnt work out, and by all accts that seems likely, then current modeling hints at the idea that snow chances while not 0%, will be VERY very hard to come by through at  least the first 7-10days of March.  That said there is a strat warming going on, the results of which tend to take about 3 weeks or so to show up.  So while modeling does not show alot in the way of winter weather, Id argue that a late season run of a storm or two is still on the table.  Obv late in the season always favors off the coast, but doesn't exclude the coastal plain.  Storm track has to be right.

Look if its over its over.  Its def been a better season of tracking across the board for sure compared to last year.  Going back to my rebuilding a football team analogy from a couple months ago, Im pretty sure regardless of where you live the team def made improvements from last years team.  We still have a decent accumulation of draft picks, solid up and coming young players, and few savvy veterans to help guide the youth of the team in the right direction.  I for one remain optimistic about the future.  

As a side note Ray (rb) finally got back to me.  He is totally fine.  He has been grinding away; making things happen for himself in the real world.  

That is all for now

Had a feeling this post was coming. I was reading up on things back a bit and wasn't likely the look. 

In regard to Ray, unacceptable!  Missed 2 storms all on a count of real world stuff. Demerits!   

It was a decent winter, looking towards spring now. Thx for all the great tracking guys!  See you around the way.

Wow do you set a low bar, and just saw Jmans post a C!!!!!!!!!, WHAT? Have our expectations of Winter, even in our new mild period gotten this bad.

I'm at 29.3 inches for the season and this Winter is a solid D, probably a D- when I factor in way above normal temperature, lack of sustained snow cover, lack of ice etc. no sub zero days, only one single digit day which would break a 100 year record.

I like winter for the whole Winter seasonal experience, If I somehow get to my seasonal average of 50 with a 20 inch snow storm at the end of March that melts in three days the Winters still a D. I guess everyone has their own grading system.

Absolutely agree with you..need the whole hot cocoa,scarf wearing, snow pack on the ground experience and not just from the Hallmark channel.lol a light vest or sweatshirt during winter is NOT winter! Hoping things turn around!.and we get a nice late season blizzard..and the pattern changes for next year!

[dkodgis]

Oh my gosh: Hallmark Channel! Funny. I watch that channel all the time. My wife forces me to watch it

[weatherwatchermom]

Oh my gosh: Hallmark Channel!  Funny. I watch that channel all the time. My wife forces me to watch it

My husband rolls his eyes and comments the whole way thru if he is in the room when I watch..lol I tell him I can change the channel to watch politics and he gets quiet

[amugs]

This map shows the rising and descending of air over the pacific region which has huge effects on our weather pattern. This is for the beginning of March and is showing an interesting look of what could be phase 3. You see the green rising air, moisture over the Indian Ocean and the drying air browns over the Aussie regions and to the east argue for such but time will tell:



Phases - match up the blue to the green in the above chart




Sun angle starts to come into play as well:

[amugs]

@weathermom
If this holds for the summer, then the east coast is in trouble.

[jmanley32]

End of the week system is def not looking good.  Timing of the n/s and s/s just aint right, at least as currently modeled, because some of the bigger pattern factors have trended less favorable. The bigg ULL that Frank mentioned in a prev post that once was well off shore out over the Pac, has trended further east and is now forecast near the WC.  This unfort shifts everything(n/s & s/s interactions) in our neck of the woods off the EC.  It's not done yet, still on life support, but we are going to need to see some brain activity soon on this threat, by Tu/We the absolute latest, or its time to pull the plug.  

Re the end of winter...if end of this week threat doesnt work out, and by all accts that seems likely, then current modeling hints at the idea that snow chances while not 0%, will be VERY very hard to come by through at  least the first 7-10days of March.  That said there is a strat warming going on, the results of which tend to take about 3 weeks or so to show up.  So while modeling does not show alot in the way of winter weather, Id argue that a late season run of a storm or two is still on the table.  Obv late in the season always favors off the coast, but doesn't exclude the coastal plain.  Storm track has to be right.

Look if its over its over.  Its def been a better season of tracking across the board for sure compared to last year.  Going back to my rebuilding a football team analogy from a couple months ago, Im pretty sure regardless of where you live the team def made improvements from last years team.  We still have a decent accumulation of draft picks, solid up and coming young players, and few savvy veterans to help guide the youth of the team in the right direction.  I for one remain optimistic about the future.  

As a side note Ray (rb) finally got back to me.  He is totally fine.  He has been grinding away; making things happen for himself in the real world.  

That is all for now

Had a feeling this post was coming. I was reading up on things back a bit and wasn't likely the look. 

In regard to Ray, unacceptable!  Missed 2 storms all on a count of real world stuff. Demerits!   

It was a decent winter, looking towards spring now. Thx for all the great tracking guys!  See you around the way.

Wow do you set a low bar, and just saw Jmans post a C!!!!!!!!!, WHAT? Have our expectations of Winter, even in our new mild period gotten this bad.

I'm at 29.3 inches for the season and this Winter is a solid D, probably a D- when I factor in way above normal temperature, lack of sustained snow cover, lack of ice etc. no sub zero days, only one single digit day which would break a 100 year record.

I like winter for the whole Winter seasonal experience, If I somehow get to my seasonal average of 50 with a 20 inch snow storm at the end of March that melts in three days the Winters still a D. I guess everyone has their own grading system.

Well I was trying not to be too much of a pessimist especially since (1. if I do I get called out on it and 2. I find it hard to believe it won't snow again as it is only Feb 19th. But how do I really feel? An F-. But if you go off last year its more than double my snowfall so I had to consider that, I am not thinking in terms of overall past 10 years. Those days are over for now, here anyways.

[heehaw453]

Friday night setup is a weak cold front with some light rain. No interaction with the n/s and look how strung out the mid-level energy is. I'd say rest of February probably very uneventful due to long wave pattern going unfavorable, but I would not write March off yet. The shorter wave lengths and an active n/s can produce especially in the interior.  As it stands now Central Park is at risk for the first consecutive < 10" seasonal snowfall in its 150+ years of record keeping. It's the only local station still < 10" and I know CP has pointed out the inaccuracy of the measurements.

In terms of winter grade I'll create a thread after February for meteorological winter grade, but from my IMBY not good with December being terrible. But certainly no where near last year's futility.

[jmanley32]

Okay well sounds like feb is done deal. Ill check back in march. Bastardi calling for hyperactive cane season.

[frank 638]

Okay well sounds like feb is done deal. I’ll check back in march. Bastardi calling for hyperactive cane season.

I wouldn’t be surprised, for an active hurricane season. I just hope we don’t get hit at all.

[hyde345]

This winter has been total garbage. December, January, and so far February have all been 5 degrees or more above normal and I have 10 inches less snow than I had in last year's garbage winter. We had 12 inches back in early January and it was gone in about a week and only about 5 inches since then. Unless March has a surprise or 2 in store this has been an F winter.

[heehaw453]

This winter has been total garbage. December, January, and so far February have all been 5 degrees or more above normal and I have 10 inches less snow than I had in last year's garbage winter. We had 12 inches back in early January and it was gone in about a week and only about 5 inches since then. Unless March has a surprise or 2 in store this has been an F winter.

We've had AN temps consistently since 2015/16 super Nino and until parts of the Pacific ocean cools a bit we expect this to continue.

[amugs]

This winter has been total garbage. December, January, and so far February have all been 5 degrees or more above normal and I have 10 inches less snow than I had in last year's garbage winter. We had 12 inches back in early January and it was gone in about a week and only about 5 inches since then. Unless March has a surprise or 2 in store this has been an F winter.

We've had AN temps consistently since 2015/16 super Nino and until parts of the Pacific ocean cools a bit we expect this to continue.

That HUGGGEE bathtub of water controls our weather, no two ways about it. All that heat has to be relased to cool down and when you have it at depth of 150M plus it takes lots of time.

Look at this cross section.


I am convinced now that QBO, MEI, ONI and other such factors are not as prevelant as the ENSO state UNLESS this is in a weak state.

March come sin like lamb and leaves like a lion I am going to say but who knows maybe just as begnin as this winter was.

[billg315]

Certainly looks like we're going to be out of business for snow around here for the next 10-15 days. And as sroc says, if that is the end of winter around these parts so be it, it is what it is. Personally, I'm ready for baseball season and summer beach trips so I'm ok moving onto Spring. But . . . I wouldn't write off mid-March yet for two reasons, one more scientifically based one just for fun.
First, (and not science based) March often has surprises even in bad winters -- see 2018 when we had little snow the entire winter then got 3 or 4 storms from March into April. My mom used to say "there always seems to be a snowstorm around your birthday in mid-March" and she was often right. So history says don't give up just yet.
Second, (and a little more scientifically based) weather is often cyclical once a series of patterns settles in. This year, January started warm, then turned cold for about 7-10 days in mid-January with 3 snow events. Then it slowly warmed back up and February started warm, before 7-10 cold days in mid-February with 2 snowstorms. Now it is slowly warming up again and looks like Feb/early March will be warm. If the pattern holds, it would turn colder with a couple storm opportunities mid-March. So, let's see if that in fact occurs.
If not, onto baseball season!

[Irish]

This winter has been total garbage. December, January, and so far February have all been 5 degrees or more above normal and I have 10 inches less snow than I had in last year's garbage winter. We had 12 inches back in early January and it was gone in about a week and only about 5 inches since then. Unless March has a surprise or 2 in store this has been an F winter.

We've had AN temps consistently since 2015/16 super Nino and until parts of the Pacific ocean cools a bit we expect this to continue.

And when do we ever see that happen with temps on earth increasing?

[frank 638]

The way this winter has been going I don’t know what to believe

[phil155]

The way this winter has been going I don’t know what to believe

It is all relative to avg though and with avg temperatures rising will it be cold enough or are we really looking at a thread the needle type situation( borrowed a line from Bobby Martrich at epawa). Not that it makes things impossible it surely does not but it’s much more difficult in an already difficult winter.

[sroc4]

The way this winter has been going I don’t know what to believe

It is all relative to avg though and with avg temperatures rising will it be cold enough or are we really looking at a thread the needle type situation( borrowed a line from Bobby Martrich at epawa). Not that it makes things impossible it surely does not but it’s much more difficult in an already difficult winter.

When it comes to a Strat warming event there is no amateur or prof in the weather field that can give you what will happen with any certainty in any back yard.  This is fact.  I mentioned the strat warm taking place several posts ago, the effects of which typically take about 3weeks +/- to translate to the surface.  How disrupted the Strat PV gets, its relative strength, and probably most important its position in the N Hemisphere will be key to any late season snow chances or not. On top of that the Strat PV at 10mb 30mb and 50mb and their alignment to one another or not...this too plays a role.  What's the MJO doing?  Is there a wave with amplitude?  If so what phase.  So there is alot of unknowns at this time.  What appears to be certain is that the next 2-3weeks dont show much in the way of snow chances in our board coverage area.  3 weeks puts us at and around March 10-12th.  It has snowed later that that to our NW and down to the coat before and it will again.  Will it this year?  We will find out.  All the negative nancies feel free to chime in with your "Its over" posts in Banter.  Everyone else sit tight until we get to March and see what evolves.  Maybe we get one or two more chances, and maybe we dont.  Cheers!

....Re the end of winter...if end of this week threat doesn't work out, and by all accts that seems likely, then current modeling hints at the idea that snow chances while not 0%, will be VERY very hard to come by through at  least the first 7-10days of March.  That said there is a strat warming going on, the results of which tend to take about 3 weeks or so to show up.  So while modeling does not show a lot in the way of winter weather, Id argue that a late season run of a storm or two is still on the table.  Obv late in the season always favors off the coast, but doesn't exclude the coastal plain.  Storm track has to be right....

That is all for now

[Frank_Wx]

I have a strange feeling we could see one final shot of snow in mid to late March. But yea, the storm threat that was once supposed to be this weekend is dead. Mostly for reasons I feared would happen regarding the Pacific. Of course its the Pacific. Who else.

[Sponsored content]