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Long Range Thread 28.0

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Post by Irish Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:30 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
amugs wrote:Great article on what I was saying about the drastic warming off the Eastern Australia Coast this winter in just months, talks about the underwater volcanoes and vents that may just be the answer and the answer to our warming oceans.

https://climatechangedispatch.com/how-hydrothermal-vents-and-other-seabed-structures-heat-our-oceans/

A great thread and other links to other articles - very interesting


I know you guys love it when I chime in on these posts, but I can't help it. For those of us who agree with the scientific consensus on climate change, Climate Change Dispatch is not the most credible resource.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/climate-change-dispatch/
"Overall, we rate Climate Change Dispatch as a Conspiracy and Quackery level Pseudoscience source for the promotion of false or misleading information..."

The website is run by Tom Harris...
https://www.desmog.com/tom-harris/
"Tom Harris is the Executive Director of the International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC), a group of climate change skeptics that has received funding from the Heartland Institute. Before starting work with ICSC, Harris was the Executive Director of the now-defunct Natural Resources Stewardship Project (NRSP).2 3
Prior to working with the NRSP, Harris was a Former Director of Operations at the Canadian PR and lobbying firm called the High Park Group (HPG). Previously, Harris was an Associate with APCO Worldwide, a group known for creating The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (TASSC) which worked to advance tobacco industry
According to Harris’s archived profile at APCO Worldwide, “Specifically, he has worked with oil and gas, coal, nuclear, environmental and aerospace clients for whom he has conducted effective media and public relations campaigns.” His profile also highlights how he has “worked with private companies and trade associations to successfully position these entities and their interests with media and before various government committees and regulatory bodies.”6"

I get that not everyone here buys into the scientific consensus but it's important to know the background of any information resource.

Pete these fact checkers are as big a nonsense as what your claims are.  Its just silly.  The "fact checkers" of the world are as slanted as the left and right side.  There isnt anything on this fact checkers page that disputes the validity of the claims, simply attempts to discredit the individual who makes the claim; therefore, the info must be bad info.  And your words, "disputing the science consensus" is not an argument.  You clearly have zero clue how science works.  I honestly dont say this with disrespect.  I simply mean pretty much EVER SINGLE breakthrough in science has come from those brave enough to challenge the consensus.  THIS IS FACT.  

You're smarter than this Pete.  I know you are.  Don't get lulled into the "consensus" as being fact.  True science knows that the consensus is only what the majority believe based on the information available or in todays world the information allowed to presented and discussed.
So climate change isn't real?  The human created geological era we've entered of mass extinction of Flora and fauna isn't real?  Ignoring consensus because it doesn't agree with your point of view, is rational?

Irish. For the love of God. Find me a post where I said climate change isn’t real?  Never once have I stated that man and CO2 isn’t playing a role. That said the Climate has been changing for billions of years. My point is is that the idea that the climate science you are referring to is settled is simply ludicrous.  And if don’t understand what is meant by that then I don’t have the time to have the discussion with you. If you dont understand that the greatest advances in any area of science have come because someone decided challenge the consensus then you my friend are the one who is simply ignoring other ideas because it goes against your beliefs.  
I was just asking where you stood.  I'm trying to decide if a meaningful conversation is even possible.  If I heard back that you were completely a thorough Trumpy coming from the right, then I know to back away from the table slowly.  I completely understand how the Science works, I'm a science teacher and work with my kids on the scientific method doing labs all the time.  I would never ignore others ideas and turn a blind eye to them and even though I've done a fair amount of research and believe that humans are a major cause of the changes we're seeing with the climate and mass extinction of plants and animals currently happening today, I'm always open to hearing someone tell me how we're not.


“Trumpy coming from the right”?  Man this tells me quite a bit about you. A discussion about climate should have nothing to do with who someone votes for.  The fact that you used that phase tells me everything I need to know.  
Unfortunately, it has everything to do with it. And the fact that you don't think it does is extremely naive and ironic. And what about me do my statements tell you other than I don't like to have discussions with people who are very far down the rabbit hole and refuse to see other perspectives?  I'm curious because these statements come off as very judgmental, defensive and narrow-minded.

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 25, 2024 7:03 am

WeatherBob wrote:I have an idea, how about someone start a separate thread called Climate.  Not climate change, not climate hoax etc..
. Just Climate so everyone can express thier opinions in the correct forum.

If I was a moderator here, and I am not, all discussions regarding climate change would be banned.We are a local weather observation site and climate discussions ultimately become toxic and divisive, much like religion and politics.I am sure there are dozens of sites dedicated to that issue, so go over there and post your thoughts.This board has been a breath of fresh air in this terribly angry and toxic environment of "us against them" in this country today.Anyway, that's my two cents on this issue.

Peace, out.

Doc

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 25, 2024 7:19 am

Irish..meet me in banter

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by dkodgis Sun Feb 25, 2024 8:16 pm

Not that the 14-day forecast is accurate to anyone’s liking (like trying to pick an Ncaa basketball bracket) but it shows warm temps, and like 8 chances for rain. Then on March 11 a drop to lower temps…and the crystal ball goes dark after that until a few days this week go by. This week I hope those in the know and those who subscribe to oracles and get around on other boards will share potential updates. Come what may, it will be of interest
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 27, 2024 9:47 am

It wouldn't surprise me if we have one last (or maybe last) shot at accumulating snow around the March 11-12 time-frame. Probably a "thread the needle" type situation that would have to play out just right, but that would be the time where we might expect to see a drop-off in temps coinciding with some activity.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 27, 2024 9:57 pm

My my. The first week of March. Day temps are coming in low 60s and that’s up here. Will be warmer into NJ and down the parkway.
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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:45 pm

Should I even mention how close the last two GFS runs are to giving us something to work with in the snow department next Friday night/Saturday?
Eh, not yet I guess.
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Post by kalleg Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:19 pm

Mother Nature has done some serious pruning...
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.   
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0

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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:44 pm

Kalleg, The photos are not showing for me
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Post by kalleg Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:51 pm

HMMM...the photos are showing up when I scroll up.

Did this one come through?

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0

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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:54 pm

Sorry, no
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Post by kalleg Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:58 pm

More than strange, as they are showing up when I scroll up...have no clue how to make them appear for you, and potentially others...

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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 29, 2024 5:35 pm

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 Image10
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 Image12
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 Image11
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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 29, 2024 5:37 pm

Those pictures are Kalleg’s. I uploaded them to help
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 29, 2024 7:48 pm

kalleg wrote:Mother Nature has done some serious pruning...
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.   
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0

Those are some impressive branches that came down..the winds were wicked last night..as you said mother nature did some pruning..just glad did not hit any of your structures
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 29, 2024 7:59 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
kalleg wrote:Mother Nature has done some serious pruning...
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.   
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0

Those are some impressive branches that came down..the winds were wicked last night..as you said mother nature did some pruning..just glad did not hit any of your structures

Wow, those branches are widow makers for sure!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 29, 2024 8:23 pm

docstox12 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
kalleg wrote:Mother Nature has done some serious pruning...
Branches down from the top of a tree near the edge of our property--see the Y in the last photo.   
Velocities last night were in the 40s and more, so I am thinking the wind came over the hill from the west, over our lower property and brought down these branches, landing several yards east of their original locations as part of the tree. The upright one is more than a couple of inches deep in the ground...


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0


Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 0?ui=2&ik=99c6fd9a3a&attid=0

Those are some impressive branches that came down..the winds were wicked last night..as you said mother nature did some pruning..just glad did not hit any of your structures

Wow, those branches are widow makers for sure!

Did not think of that but you are right!
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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:06 pm

Bill, what does next Fridayish look like
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 01, 2024 7:31 am

Morning,

Regarding next week Friday, my opinion is that there isnt alot there; however, whatever energy swings through late next week could potentially set us up for something between the 9th-12th.  

Now here are the disclaimers:
1) The pattern is anything but ideal, making this threat way more unlikely than likely
2) If a storm does develop and have cold with it the further away from the coast you get the better chance you have(capt obv statement)
3) This is as close to a true thread the needle as we get.
4) We all know sun angle is a major factor this time of year.  That aid like discussing surface temps a week out, that's a detail that gets discussed after we have a storm, which we don't have yet, and we know the timing of it.

Bottom line is this.  Although the pattern is less than ideal, the current set up with a negative NAO, a possible 50/50 feature while the chances aren't great, they are def not zero.  And on the images below I have labeled PNA.  I don't expect a huge spike along the west coast, but if the NAO and 50/50 are right a neutral PNA can be overcome.  Its like saying we Don't need the QB to go out and win the game, we just need the QB to not lose the game for us.  Let the other play makers win us the game.  

As we head into early next week Ill be following these features in the ensembles to see how they evolve.  Its all about evolving such that if energy comes together near the coast is there a cold air source to tap into.  From there we focus on storm track; then IMBY details.  

 Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 Ecmwf188
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 Gfs-en39

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Mar 01, 2024 11:42 am

Looks like it will at least be warmish on Opening Day! So many years of freezing my a$$ off at the home opener!

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 17 Cfs-mo10

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Post by dkodgis Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:50 pm

Janet, you’re a gem
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Post by billg315 Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:13 pm

dkodgis wrote:Bill, what does next Fridayish look like

Scott already answered this above so I'm late to the game. So I'll just say ditto to Scott's post. lol
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Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 03, 2024 12:01 pm

Dare I temp the gods? I dare, I dare. The snowblower is on, running out the gas for storage
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Post by Coachgriff Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:27 am

I may be stretching long-range a bit but the temps in the Atlantic are already setting off alarm bells. If wind shear is limited this summer it could be a bad year for hurricanes.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:10 pm

Coachgriff wrote:I may be stretching long-range a bit but the temps in the Atlantic are already setting off alarm bells.  If wind shear is limited this summer  it could be a bad year for hurricanes.

LA Nina inbound I'd say we are in for an active to very active year overall. Time will tell. Many indicators are showing such, just like tjis winter BUT other factors derailed winter. Could it happen for hcane season, absolutely but again cautious about this hcane season.

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Post by frank 638 Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:24 pm

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:26 pm

As usual this will either be wrong or another transient last gasp at another winter that never was. At this point I really don't care much either way. Two of the mildest winters back to back in our recorded history will do that.
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