NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

+31
richb521
brownie
Carvin
silentwreck
dkodgis
NJBear
essexcountypete
amugs
tomsriversnowstorm
aiannone
SENJsnowman
jmanley32
nutleyblizzard
dsix85
docstox12
toople
Irish
Dunnzoo
Koroptim
phil155
Frank_Wx
MattyICE
billg315
frank 638
hyde345
SNOW MAN
Artechmetals
CPcantmeasuresnow
heehaw453
JT33
sroc4
35 posters

Page 2 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 5:25 pm

Winter Storm Watch for Hunterdon Co NJ. Which is interesting because the forecast atm (2-4”) is not Watch criteria. It appears they’re issuing it because they’re hedging their bets that an outcome line the NAM could come to fruition which would be over 6” here. Shows an unusual amount of uncertainty for them as typically they’d just issue an Advisory if they were all-in in the more modest amounts and upgrade later if necessary.

billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Join date : 2015-01-24

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 5:44 pm

There's definitely uncertainty with this. Here (18Z GFS) you have a full maturation of the mid-levels (first picture). If that occurs 50 miles south west then that puts the I95 (TTN-NYC) in the axis of heavier snow. Note last night's GFS 00Z 850 vorticity and the difference of say 50 miles in the maturation process from what it's showing now.  

As is it's close, but IMO blossoms a little too late for I95/coastal plain as it's right on the BM. An efficient transfer that allow for the mid-levels to start closing off and maturing around Cape May/DE is what's needed for I95/Coastal Plain. What we're seeing now is the maturation take a little longer and the mid-levels ride a bit further north.

As a rule of thumb you want to be on the NW side of the mid-levels during their maturation. Parallel doesn't work.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Gfs1102
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Gfs239

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Join date : 2014-01-20

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 5:48 pm

Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

JT33 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by MattyICE Sat Feb 10, 2024 6:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

I agree! That’s what makes the call hard. It’s not like you can split the difference between the 6-10+ and 2-4 with say a nice 3-6 zone. I think you rip 6+ or you don’t (maybe some white rain slushy c-1-2).

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 249
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 38
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

kalleg and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:16 pm

MattyICE wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

I agree!  That’s what makes the call hard. It’s not like you can split the difference between the 6-10+ and 2-4 with say a nice 3-6 zone. I think you rip 6+ or you don’t (maybe some white rain slushy c-1-2).

Also agree. Which means this will be painful if it doesn’t work out GFS Model

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:28 pm

That look is an I-81 special on the h850. Scranton to BGH would do very well with that setup. Move that over about 75-100 miles to the east then we'd looking at these parts for a big snow event. If that doesn't change it is what is. I'm not sure if these goal posts or we're playing second half of tracking on a new field.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Euro1812

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by phil155 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
MattyICE wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

I agree!  That’s what makes the call hard. It’s not like you can split the difference between the 6-10+ and 2-4 with say a nice 3-6 zone. I think you rip 6+ or you don’t (maybe some white rain slushy c-1-2).

Also agree. Which means this will be painful if it doesn’t work out GFS Model

I have low confidence for the area mentioned, sadly and I hope I am wrong but I think the area sees some snow but just a tease

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 481
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:31 pm

00z NAM about to run

Biggest NAM run since 2009 Boxing Day

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

billg315 and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:49 pm

0z NAM running, let's see what it holds.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:13 pm

If you want to teach someone the art of patience, make them sit and watch a model run download with a possible winter storm approaching. Refresh, hour 27. Refresh, hour 27. Refresh, hour 30. Refresh, hour 30. Refresh, hour 33 . . . . .
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Dunnzoo, kalleg, Judy Margolis and essexcountypete like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Koroptim Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM about to run

Biggest NAM run since 2009 Boxing Day
biggest run in 15 years? Isn’t this only 6-12 potential?

Koroptim

Posts : 29
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-16

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:29 pm

If anything looks a bit south at hour 51, which is a good sign. But no drastic differences have emerged so far.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:40 pm

Still running, but from what I can see already at hour 60 I think the 0z NAM will continue to be colder and further south than the GFS. Looks like this run is fixing to hold serve on the colder/further south solution the NAM has been showing today.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:43 pm

Yep. NAM is not only holding serve on the colder snowier solution, it has improved since the last run. This is a very good run for most on this board. Will post updated snow map shortly to show difference between 18z and 0z
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:43 pm

Delmarva ftw!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4899
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:50 pm

Not a big difference but a bit further south. More importantly, it’s not caving to the GFS so it’s holding with the colder/more south solution. For now.
NAM 0z (current run)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Img_2936
NAM 18z (previous run)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Img_2937
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:01 pm

billg315 wrote:Not a big difference but a bit further south. More importantly, it’s not caving to the GFS so it’s holding with the colder/more south solution. For now.
NAM 0z (current run)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Img_2936
NAM 18z (previous run)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Img_2937

It has almost caved. Look at the 12z compared to 00z. It's significantly farther north and stronger.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:01 pm

Koroptim wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM about to run

Biggest NAM run since 2009 Boxing Day
biggest  run in 15 years?  Isn’t this only 6-12 potential?

That was sarcasm

However, it was an important run. I agree with Bill. It did NOT trend north. The surface low stayed far enough south to keep the cold air lingering. It’s a win-win for many on here. Unfortunately, I think anyone south of CNJ is out of this game.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Img_7015

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

billg315 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:06 pm

Sadly the RGEM came north

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Img_7016

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:19 pm

That mid-level track works (first picture) on NAM 00Z. The resistance (second picture) is about 100 miles south of where it is on the 18Z GFS. That keeps the ULL and corresponding mid-levels further south. 00Z RGEM fairly close to the NAM track. It's a pin prick difference at this point, but the sensible weather is quite different.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Nam1111
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Nam1211

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

billg315 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Irish Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Sadly the RGEM came north

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Img_7016
Eh, throw it out, we don't like that option.
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

billg315 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:41 pm

We'll see what the models show tomorrow, but unfortunately I have a feeling that for a large percentage of people on this forum, we're not going to know what we're getting until Monday evening. If then.
At least the Super Bowl can serve as a distraction tomorrow.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4481
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 11:05 pm

Models tonight are BGH-->ALB-->Worcester special. I think above route 80 and elevated areas can still do OK. 4-8" type deal? I would definitely give it another 24 hours, but we've seen time and again we've struggled to get a tasty storm for most folks on this board. When mother nature is ready to throw a bone she will, for now we wait. I think NYC really has a shot of another single digit snowfall season . Don't care what the pattern shows it's in midst of something that ain't ready to let go.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 11:14 pm

00Z GGEM was a good track for TTN-->NYC-->LI.  It could be correcting north as it came north from 12Z.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Ggem13

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by toople Sun Feb 11, 2024 2:15 am

I heard the 0z Euro was not great too. Maybe a tick south.

toople

Posts : 67
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-01-01
Location : Nutley, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:14 am

WSW for my area, 5 to 9 inches with 10 locally possible.Colder weather after the snowstorm will make a snowpack possible.

Bernie's map on Accuweather went from 1-3 for me to now 6-12.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8526
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:39 am

It's painfully close. This storm will agonize many folks on the is board including myself.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

kalleg and essexcountypete like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 2 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3, ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum